China's posture in global politics rose, while its significance in the global economy fell in 2021.
The economist Ruchir Sharma predicts that China's role as the global engine of growth may have peaked last year. The country currently contributes a quarter of global GDP expansion, compared to one third before Covid-19.
While the US helped hasten global growth between 2018 and 2019, it was a drag on the global economy at the onset of the pandemic in 2020. In contrast, China's global economic contribution has consistently been a net positive for the past four decades. This may change in the year ahead.
Adjusting its economic course in 2021, China inflicted pain onto its most prized and once-vibrant technology and real estate giants. The cost has been steep. While the future remains uncertain, it may still be too early to call the China party over.
With that said, there is much to expect for China in 2022, and here are a few predictions.
China, treading the path of most industrialised economies, has gradually transitioned from investment to consumption as the main driver of its economic growth.
But facing a lacklustre consumption recovery coming out of the pandemic, China will revert to the familiar: a strong level of infrastructure stimulus in 2022. Except this time, the infrastructure will serve as the motherboard of China's green and digital future.
Different from building roads, rails and bridges, the new-era infrastructure will centre on digitalisation and renewables. China's carbon-neutrality pledge alone is forecast to unleash $15 trillion green energy infrastructure by 2050, according to the state planner.
The future US-China strategic competition will be won not by the party that is the bigger consumer, but the one that is the superior producer. A strong, service-based economy heavily reliant on global supply chains, nestled on a hollowed out domestic manufacturing base, can be a fatal weakness in today's global competition.
This is a valuable lesson China has learned from the US. The remnants from the American rust belt region evoke a bygone manufacturing era.
China's industrialisation will fight against a double-edged sword as well. China has indeed lost its labour premium in manufacturing and it must strangle fossil-fuel power supplies and steel production in exchange for a renewable future.
But China will surely continue to be self-reliant in steel, aluminium and other high-end industrial manufacturing, whatever the costs. The alternative of relying on global imports brews self-defeat.
As for the Chinese stock market, the best analogy might be that of a giant newborn. The market is large, but the system is still in its infancy.
Since the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges debuted back in 1990, the public markets have long been a destination for retail investors and infested with market speculation.
Meanwhile, the red-hot Chinese real estate market has also dried up nearly all serious capital from hard-working Chinese savers in recent years. And China's stock markets have long been plagued by opaque listing rules and loopholed corporate governance.
Despite all this, Chinese stock markets' capitalisation – combining Hong Kong, Shenzhen, Shanghai and Beijing – is today the world's second-largest, and poised for a regulatory overhaul.
China's securities regulator aims to fully adopt a registration-based IPO system in 2022. Contrary to the previous, approval-based IPO system, the government's "visible hand" in determining the fate of IPOs will be fully removed. Both listings and delistings will be determined by the market.
A strong service-based economy heavily reliant on global supply chains, nestled on a hollowed out domestic manufacturing base, can be a fatal weakness in today's global competition.
China is also increasingly opening the markets to Wall Street houses - Blackrock and JP Morgan included - to participate in institutionalising China's capital market. Improving the institutional architecture, the state reaps the reward of massive capital drawn into the stock market to finance China's drive for technology breakthroughs and industrialisation.
And as far as trade is concerned, New Year's Day saw the death of one trade landscape for China and the birth of another. Following the unsatisfactory closure of the US-China Phase One Trade Deal, the historic Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), a free trade agreement among Asia-Pacific nations, was enacted.
China is still in a de facto trade freeze with Australia, except for iron ore. And it has suspended all trade with Lithuania, an EU member country. Its Bilateral Investment Treaty with the EU is on indefinite hold, tussled between Brussels and Berlin.
US President Joe Biden's Xinjiang Human Rights Bill further bans all imports that involve supply chains from Xinjiang. All US manufacturers in China are compelled to weigh that law against their profits.
While trade relations with developed nations sits on ice, China's trade with emerging markets continues to boom. Forty-nine per cent of trade in 2021 was with the developing world, spanning South-East Asia, Africa and Latin America.
Thanks to RCEP, 57 per cent of Chinese products will trade tariff-free with Japan, a feat in both trade and in geopolitics. China's trade with the Asean trade bloc, already its largest trading partner, grew 30 per cent in 2021. China thrives in the upper-middle end of the industrial supply chain. When manufacturers trade tariff-free across the RCEP region, China is destined to capture more foreign direct investments and regional value chains.
Less mighty as the global economic growth engine, China's relevance and centrality will continue to heighten in the developing world. China's rise was once the outcome of serving as the downstream producer for the developed world. Its rise, in itself, is the rise of the developing world, and increasingly, for the developing world.
China's future economic growth will likely settle in the 5 per cent range. A 4.8 per cent GDP growth in the next 15 years implies China will double its economy by 2035, a substantial global game-changer.
The country's strength is ultimately embedded in its fragility. Its system is far from perfect, and yet, its ability to continuously reform and self-correct is far from decay.
Some of Darwish's last words
"They see their tomorrows slipping out of their reach. And though it seems to them that everything outside this reality is heaven, yet they do not want to go to that heaven. They stay, because they are afflicted with hope." - Mahmoud Darwish, to attendees of the Palestine Festival of Literature, 2008
His life in brief: Born in a village near Galilee, he lived in exile for most of his life and started writing poetry after high school. He was arrested several times by Israel for what were deemed to be inciteful poems. Most of his work focused on the love and yearning for his homeland, and he was regarded the Palestinian poet of resistance. Over the course of his life, he published more than 30 poetry collections and books of prose, with his work translated into more than 20 languages. Many of his poems were set to music by Arab composers, most significantly Marcel Khalife. Darwish died on August 9, 2008 after undergoing heart surgery in the United States. He was later buried in Ramallah where a shrine was erected in his honour.
Dates for the diary
To mark Bodytree’s 10th anniversary, the coming season will be filled with celebratory activities:
- September 21 Anyone interested in becoming a certified yoga instructor can sign up for a 250-hour course in Yoga Teacher Training with Jacquelene Sadek. It begins on September 21 and will take place over the course of six weekends.
- October 18 to 21 International yoga instructor, Yogi Nora, will be visiting Bodytree and offering classes.
- October 26 to November 4 International pilates instructor Courtney Miller will be on hand at the studio, offering classes.
- November 9 Bodytree is hosting a party to celebrate turning 10, and everyone is invited. Expect a day full of free classes on the grounds of the studio.
- December 11 Yogeswari, an advanced certified Jivamukti teacher, will be visiting the studio.
- February 2, 2018 Bodytree will host its 4th annual yoga market.
Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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United States
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China
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3.
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UAE
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4.
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Japan
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5
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Norway
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6.
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Canada
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Singapore
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Australia
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Saudi Arabia
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South Korea
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The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
Company profile
Name: The Concept
Founders: Yadhushan Mahendran, Maria Sobh and Muhammad Rijal
Based: Abu Dhabi
Founded: 2017
Number of employees: 7
Sector: Aviation and space industry
Funding: $250,000
Future plans: Looking to raise $1 million investment to boost expansion and develop new products
Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm
Price: From Dh1,700,000
Available: Now
THE SIXTH SENSE
Starring: Bruce Willis, Toni Collette, Hayley Joel Osment
Director: M. Night Shyamalan
Rating: 5/5
More from Mohammed Alardhi
Kanye%20West
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SPECS
%3Cp%3EEngine%3A%20Twin-turbocharged%204-litre%20V8%3Cbr%3EPower%3A%20625%20bhp%3Cbr%3ETorque%3A%20630Nm%3Cbr%3EOn%20sale%3A%20Now%3Cbr%3EPrice%3A%20From%20Dh974%2C011%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
%20Ramez%20Gab%20Min%20El%20Akher
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECreator%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Ramez%20Galal%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Ramez%20Galal%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStreaming%20on%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMBC%20Shahid%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The Sand Castle
Director: Matty Brown
Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea
Rating: 2.5/5
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Dubai Bling season three
Cast: Loujain Adada, Zeina Khoury, Farhana Bodi, Ebraheem Al Samadi, Mona Kattan, and couples Safa & Fahad Siddiqui and DJ Bliss & Danya Mohammed
Rating: 1/5
A Bad Moms Christmas
Dir: John Lucas and Scott Moore
Starring: Mila Kunis, Kathryn Hahn, Kristen Bell, Susan Sarandon, Christine Baranski, Cheryl Hines
Two stars
UK-EU trade at a glance
EU fishing vessels guaranteed access to UK waters for 12 years
Co-operation on security initiatives and procurement of defence products
Youth experience scheme to work, study or volunteer in UK and EU countries
Smoother border management with use of e-gates
Cutting red tape on import and export of food
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
PROFILE BOX
Company name: Overwrite.ai
Founder: Ayman Alashkar
Started: Established in 2020
Based: Dubai International Financial Centre, Dubai
Sector: PropTech
Initial investment: Self-funded by founder
Funding stage: Seed funding, in talks with angel investors
Christopher Robin
Starring: Ewan McGregor, Haley Atwell, Jim Cummings, Peter Capaldi
Three stars
Tearful appearance
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.
A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Profile of Tamatem
Date started: March 2013
Founder: Hussam Hammo
Based: Amman, Jordan
Employees: 55
Funding: $6m
Funders: Wamda Capital, Modern Electronics (part of Al Falaisah Group) and North Base Media
SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20NOTHING%20PHONE%20(2A)
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDisplay%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%206.7-inch%20flexible%20Amoled%2C%202%2C412%20x%201%2C080%2C%20394ppi%2C%20120Hz%2C%20Corning%20Gorilla%20Glass%205%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EProcessor%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20MediaTek%20Dimensity%207%2C200%20Pro%2C%204nm%2C%20octa-core%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMemory%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%208%2F12GB%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECapacity%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20128%2F256GB%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPlatform%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Android%2014%2C%20Nothing%20OS%202.5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMain%20camera%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dual%2050MP%20main%2C%20f%2F1.88%20%2B%2050MP%20ultra-wide%2C%20f%2F2.2%3B%20OIS%2C%20EIS%2C%20auto-focus%2C%20ultra%20XDR%2C%20night%20mode%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMain%20camera%20video%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204K%20%40%2030fps%2C%20full-HD%20%40%2060fps%3B%20slo-mo%20full-HD%20at%20120fps%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFront%20camera%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2032MP%20wide%2C%20f%2F2.2%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBattery%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%205%2C000mAh%3B%2050%25%20in%2030%20minutes%20with%2045-watt%20charger%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EConnectivity%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Wi-Fi%2C%20Bluetooth%205.3%2C%20NFC%20(Google%20Pay)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBiometrics%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Fingerprint%2C%20face%20unlock%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EI%2FO%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20USB-C%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDurability%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20IP54%2C%20limited%20protection%20from%20water%2Fdust%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECards%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dual-nano%20SIM%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EColours%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Black%2C%20milk%2C%20white%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EIn%20the%20box%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Nothing%20Phone%20(2a)%2C%20USB-C-to-USB-C%20cable%2C%20pre-applied%20screen%20protector%2C%20Sim%20tray%20ejector%20tool%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%20(UAE)%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dh1%2C199%20(8GB%2F128GB)%20%2F%20Dh1%2C399%20(12GB%2F256GB)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Frida%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ECarla%20Gutierrez%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Frida%20Kahlo%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
'Operation Mincemeat'
Director: John Madden
Cast: Colin Firth, Matthew Macfayden, Kelly Macdonald and Penelope Wilton
Rating: 4/5
Globalization and its Discontents Revisited
Joseph E. Stiglitz
W. W. Norton & Company
The specs: 2018 Nissan 370Z Nismo
The specs: 2018 Nissan 370Z Nismo
Price, base / as tested: Dh182,178
Engine: 3.7-litre V6
Power: 350hp @ 7,400rpm
Torque: 374Nm @ 5,200rpm
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Fuel consumption, combined: 10.5L / 100km
'The Sky is Everywhere'
Director:Josephine Decker
Stars:Grace Kaufman, Pico Alexander, Jacques Colimon
Rating:2/5
BRIEF SCORES
England 353 and 313-8 dec
(B Stokes 112, A Cook 88; M Morkel 3-70, K Rabada 3-85)
(J Bairstow 63, T Westley 59, J Root 50; K Maharaj 3-50)
South Africa 175 and 252
(T Bavuma 52; T Roland-Jones 5-57, J Anderson 3-25)
(D Elgar 136; M Ali 4-45, T Roland-Jones 3-72)
Result: England won by 239 runs
England lead four-match series 2-1
At a glance
Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year
Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month
Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30
Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse
Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth
Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances
