Raghida Dergham is the founder and executive chairwoman of the Beirut Institute, and a columnist for The National
January 09, 2022
Three decades ago, the Cold War ended with the collapse of the Soviet Union and the establishment of the US as the world’s sole superpower. This week, we will find out if a cold war of a different kind is likely to emerge between Russia and the West.
On Monday, Russian and American delegates will meet in Geneva and two days later, a delegation from Moscow will visit Nato officials in Brussels. The purpose of the meetings is to find a solution to the geopolitical tensions emanating in Eastern Europe.
Meanwhile, the next round of talks between Iran and the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, plus Germany, will resume in order to resolve the former’s nuclear weapons programme.
A common feature of all these talks is the use of militarisation – on the part of Russia and Iran, respectively – as a diplomatic tactic ahead of their meetings. The goal is, of course, to pressure the opposite side at the negotiating table.
Indeed, the military establishment in Moscow believes it to be the best way to improve its negotiating hand – especially with the US – as a pre-emptive move to abort Nato’s expansion eastward, which Russia views as a threat to its security. Nato, after all, is a US-led western security umbrella that was created precisely to curb the Soviet Union’s influence in Europe but remains in place despite the fall of the so-called Iron Curtain.
Moscow’s military option would be to enter Ukraine, the focal point in the European crisis, on whose border Russian troops have assembled. Ukraine’s interest in joining Nato amounts to a red line for Russia, which considers it to be within its sphere of influence. Another source of discomfort for Russia is the continued western military co-operation with other former Soviet republics in Eastern Europe. Moscow believes something must be done now, because Nato’s gradual expansion into former Soviet territories would be even more difficult to counter in the years to come.
Likewise, the theocratic establishment in Tehran believes flexing its nuclear muscles is the only way it can force the western powers involved in the talks to agree to Iran’s demand that crippling sanctions against it be lifted in one fell swoop. It has, in the process, ramped up its nuclear development programme. But it seems France, Germany and the UK – the so-called E3 members in the nuclear talks – are beginning to tire of Iran’s pressure tactics and may be pushing back.
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps personnel take part in military exercises around the Bushehr nuclear power plant in southern Iran EPA`
Germany, meanwhile, is among those European states open to the idea of sanctioning Russia if it used its military option. The threats and counter threats from both sides, however, have dangerous implications amid an escalation of tensions.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov seems to believe that a diplomatic solution is possible, his rationale possibly being that for both the US and Nato, maintaining relations with Russia is more important than Ukraine's possible inclusion in Nato.
But if diplomacy fails, the question is whether Russia will risk sending its forces into Ukraine, particularly as it wants a resolution by the end of January, which leaves little room to manoeuvre. The current moment, therefore, could be fateful.
Of course, this standoff cannot be compared to, say, the Cuban missile crisis of 1962, which was much less complicated. It pitted two superpowers that were terrified of one another. The power deferential between the US and Russia today is far greater than it was between the US and the Soviet Union. Russia is not as powerful, militarily or economically, as the Soviet Union was in its heyday. The fear of nuclear escalation between the two powers, compared to the Cold War days, has also receded.
A P2V Neptune US patrol plane flies over a Soviet freighter during the Cuban missile crisis in this 1962 photograph. Getty Images
Yet, what makes the current crisis dangerous is the complicated security situation today, with a different kind of arms race – involving intercontinental missiles – coming into play.
It is also difficult to see how the US will concede to Moscow’s demand to rein in Nato and alter the structure of its alliances. Political polarisation in America may well have weakened Joe Biden’s presidency, but it is this very polarisation – and the thought of looking weak in the eyes of the electorate – that will prompt Mr Biden to not cave in.
The month of January is also critical in the context of the Iran nuclear talks, keeping in mind the regime’s ultimatum that it will cease to negotiate after the end of the month. And if the Vienna talks do collapse, the regime will feel less hard-pressed to launch military action in the region, perhaps even targeting Israel. Any such action will be met with an Israeli response, thereby putting the world on edge on two fronts.
We will soon know if diplomacy, both in the context of Eastern Europe and the Middle East, wins the day to keep the peace – or whether failure in the talks will lead to confrontation, conflict and possibly a new kind of cold war.
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Salman Khan’s father, Salim Khan, is one of Bollywood’s most legendary screenwriters. Through his partnership with co-writer Javed Akhtar, Salim is credited with having paved the path for the Indian film industry’s blockbuster format in the 1970s. Something his son now rules the roost of. More importantly, the Salim-Javed duo also created the persona of the “angry young man” for Bollywood megastar Amitabh Bachchan in the 1970s, reflecting the angst of the average Indian. In choosing to be the ordinary man’s “hero” as opposed to a thespian in new Bollywood, Salman Khan remains tightly linked to his father’s oeuvre. Thanks dad.
Indoor cricket World Cup:
Insportz, Dubai, September 16-23
UAE fixtures:
Men
Saturday, September 16 – 1.45pm, v New Zealand
Sunday, September 17 – 10.30am, v Australia; 3.45pm, v South Africa
Monday, September 18 – 2pm, v England; 7.15pm, v India
Tuesday, September 19 – 12.15pm, v Singapore; 5.30pm, v Sri Lanka
Thursday, September 21 – 2pm v Malaysia
Friday, September 22 – 3.30pm, semi-final
Saturday, September 23 – 3pm, grand final
Women
Saturday, September 16 – 5.15pm, v Australia
Sunday, September 17 – 2pm, v South Africa; 7.15pm, v New Zealand
Monday, September 18 – 5.30pm, v England
Tuesday, September 19 – 10.30am, v New Zealand; 3.45pm, v South Africa
Thursday, September 21 – 12.15pm, v Australia
Friday, September 22 – 1.30pm, semi-final
Saturday, September 23 – 1pm, grand final
Anghami
Started: December 2011
Co-founders: Elie Habib, Eddy Maroun
Based: Beirut and Dubai
Sector: Entertainment
Size: 85 employees
Stage: Series C
Investors: MEVP, du, Mobily, MBC, Samena Capital
Investors: Technology Development Fund, Silicon Badia, Beco Capital, Vostok New Ventures, Endeavour Catalyst, Crescent Enterprises’ CE-Ventures, Saudi Technology Ventures and IFC
UAE v Gibraltar
What: International friendly
When: 7pm kick off
Where: Rugby Park, Dubai Sports City
Admission: Free
Online: The match will be broadcast live on Dubai Exiles’ Facebook page
UAE squad: Lucas Waddington (Dubai Exiles), Gio Fourie (Exiles), Craig Nutt (Abu Dhabi Harlequins), Phil Brady (Harlequins), Daniel Perry (Dubai Hurricanes), EsekaiaDranibota (Harlequins), Matt Mills (Exiles), JaenBotes (Exiles), KristianStinson (Exiles), Murray Reason (Abu Dhabi Saracens), Dave Knight (Hurricanes), Ross Samson (Jebel Ali Dragons), DuRandt Gerber (Exiles), Saki Naisau (Dragons), Andrew Powell (Hurricanes), EmosiVacanau (Harlequins), NikoVolavola (Dragons), Matt Richards (Dragons), Luke Stevenson (Harlequins), Josh Ives (Dubai Sports City Eagles), Sean Stevens (Saracens), ThinusSteyn (Exiles)
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
Started: 2020
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Entertainment
Number of staff: 210
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
What is Financial Fair Play?
Introduced in 2011 by Uefa, European football’s governing body, it demands that clubs live within their means. Chiefly, spend within their income and not make substantial losses.
What the rules dictate?
The second phase of its implementation limits losses to €30 million (Dh136m) over three seasons. Extra expenditure is permitted for investment in sustainable areas (youth academies, stadium development, etc). Money provided by owners is not viewed as income. Revenue from “related parties” to those owners is assessed by Uefa's “financial control body” to be sure it is a fair value, or in line with market prices.
What are the penalties?
There are a number of punishments, including fines, a loss of prize money or having to reduce squad size for European competition – as happened to PSG in 2014. There is even the threat of a competition ban, which could in theory lead to PSG’s suspension from the Uefa Champions League.
RESULTS
6.30pm Al Maktoum Challenge Round-2 – Group 1 (PA) $49,000 (Dirt) 1,900m
Winner RB Frynchh Dude, Pat Cosgrave (jockey), Helal Al Alawi (trainer)
7.05pm Al Bastakiya Trial – Conditions (TB) $50,000 (D) 1,900m
Winner Soft Whisper, Frankie Dettori, Saeed bin Suroor
9.25pm Handicap (TB) $68,000 (T) 1,600m
Winner Bedouin’s Story, Frankie Dettori, Saeed bin Suroor
COMPANY PROFILE
Company name: SimpliFi
Started: August 2021
Founder: Ali Sattar
Based: UAE
Industry: Finance, technology
Investors: 4DX, Rally Cap, Raed, Global Founders, Sukna and individuals
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre 6-cyl turbo
Power: 374hp at 5,500-6,500rpm
Torque: 500Nm from 1,900-5,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 8.5L/100km
Price: from Dh285,000
On sale: from January 2022
FFP EXPLAINED
What is Financial Fair Play?
Introduced in 2011 by Uefa, European football’s governing body, it demands that clubs live within their means. Chiefly, spend within their income and not make substantial losses.
What the rules dictate?
The second phase of its implementation limits losses to €30 million (Dh136m) over three seasons. Extra expenditure is permitted for investment in sustainable areas (youth academies, stadium development, etc). Money provided by owners is not viewed as income. Revenue from “related parties” to those owners is assessed by Uefa's “financial control body” to be sure it is a fair value, or in line with market prices.
What are the penalties?
There are a number of punishments, including fines, a loss of prize money or having to reduce squad size for European competition – as happened to PSG in 2014. There is even the threat of a competition ban, which could in theory lead to PSG’s suspension from the Uefa Champions League.
