Can Macron's bold style keep the EU together?

For Emmanuel Macron, the formal launch of the French presidency of the EU on Friday was an opportunity like no other presented during his tenure as his country's head of state.

From the outset, Mr Macron is showing his keen sense of mission to remould the 27-member bloc along an agenda set in Paris. But the result has, so far, been an unusual degree of resistance from an untypical quarter. The Germans have pushed back hard against at least a part of his programme.

It is the French leader’s character not to back down. His forceful, not to say abrasive, style is likely to shake things up over the coming weeks.

Energy is a top priority for the French presidency, and Mr Macron wants to put nuclear energy at the heart of the bloc’s so-called Green Deal. Given this Green Deal is the most important and far-reaching policy platform promoted by Brussels – the EU's administrative centre – since the internal market reforms three decades ago, Mr Macron’s move is a very consequential initiative.

Making nuclear energy part of the EU mainstream would almost certainly open access to French technology in this sphere for the other 26 member states. It is, however, a development that is bitterly resisted by the Green parties around Europe, several of which are in coalition governments. The most important of these is the new German administration. As Europe's ministers gathered in Paris to participate in the French launch, Berlin’s representative said the two sides would agree to disagree.

Focusing on a more positive agenda would certainly suit Mr Macron.

Not only will his time in the hot seat coincide with the biggest energy crunch forecast in a decade this winter, Europe is also troubled by its unquiet border with Ukraine. Energy prices are on the rise. Not only will this situation get worse during the colder weeks ahead, it also feeds into the security tensions.

Russia’s supplies of gas westwards are not all that they might be. Germany has taken three nuclear reactors offline for its own political reasons. The Kremlin wants approval of its very expensive new gas pipeline to Germany. It has not been shy about using its leverage over supplies to do so. Stores of reserves of the key fuel are very low.

One of Mr Macron’s themes is the need to bolster Europe’s strategic autonomy.

French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, a key lieutenant of Mr Macron, complained on Friday that the Russians were determined to bypass the Europeans and deal solely with the US on the tensions over Ukraine. Talks between the US and Russia open in Geneva on Monday. Questions will be asked about what kind of grand bargain Washington and Moscow would be willing to strike.

For the French and other Europeans, the frustration at not being at the table is a palpable disappointment at the start of 2022. Mr Le Drian said a restoration of zones of influence looked to be on the cards and that this was not acceptable. The French official echoed other European warnings that the era of Yalta-style carve-ups had been consigned to the past. It was not feasible to sit at a table as two powerful nations are about to decide the fate of others.

In a sign of shared priorities, the Germans have said Mr Macron’s ideas on strategic autonomy in security must be furthered during the presidency. But time is vanishingly short for the French leader. He is facing a re-election campaign in April that could drag into May. Although not yet declared a candidate, Mr Macron’s fight to hang on to the Elysee Palace is already informing his every political move.

The leadership of the EU is a chance to showcase his strengths. If investment is mobilised through the Green Deal, that would no doubt help his image as a dynamic leader building for the future.

Leadership on climate, which is the third area where Germany has promised support, is likely to be more problematic. The lurking danger of the Yellow Vests movement, which mobilised millions against fuel taxes in the early years of his presidency, is also considerable. The French government has already sent out cheques to households to pay part of their fuel bills.

Juggling these pressures will be quite a challenge for Mr Macron. While his predisposition is to lead from the front, the problem is that Europe is wedded to the collegiate approach to building the union.

Some of the bigger-picture strategies is unlikely to get any attention at all. With the shadow of Russia falling on the Europeans, there is a desperate need to rebuild security relationships with the British. London is still the biggest military power in the European space. It is happy to reinforce messaging to Russia alongside the EU, but the Brexit process has cut close co-operation.

The French instinct to build a European defence capability is a good one, but not at the cost of Nato’s pre-eminent role. The time for that is not right – whatever the energy and passion Mr Macron is bringing to the table.