Fourteen years ago, in December, 2007, a decade of economic expansion in the US came to an end. The growth period prior to that – which ended in 2001 – lasted 10 years.
Officially the recession in the US that followed the financial crisis and collapse of Lehmann Brothers investment bank only lasted about two years.
However, we were plagued by relatively weak levels of economic growth – not just in America but around the world, too – for at least 10 years from that point.
Then we were hit by the pandemic in early 2020. The prognosis for growth was bleak a year ago, amid lockdowns and stalled businesses.
Now it would seem though that in the wake of Covid-19 we might be once again on the brink of a new era of outstanding economic growth.
Goldman Sachs expects the UK economy to grow 4.8 per cent next year, the US to grow 3.5 per cent, 4 per cent in Germany and 4.4 per cent in Italy and France.
The final three months of 2021 have been a period of increased economic activity despite the spread of the Omicron variant of the coronavirus.
In the US, for example, growth forecasts for the fourth quarter are at as high as a 7.5 per cent annualised rate. The country is expected to grow 5.6 per cent this year, which would be the fastest since 1984, according to Reuters. The American economy contracted 3.4 per cent in 2020 by comparison.
"The economy was running on all cylinders in the fourth quarter," Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton in Chicago told Reuters.
On Wall Street, for example, investment bankers brought in hundreds of billions of dollars in fees this year. They are anticipating bumper bonuses.
As some of the world’s leading business and economics experts explained on a new podcast series by The National, called PCR: Post Covid-19 Recovery, we are experiencing a fast economic rebound.
In the latest World Economic League Table, the Centre for Economics and Business Research says global GDP in 2022 will cross $100 trillion for the first time. In 2020, CEBR forecast that this would not occur until 2024.
“There is substantially more momentum going into 2022 than we had previously envisaged,” it said this week.
The final three months of 2021 have been a period of increased economic activity despite the spread of Omicron
However, Omicron’s effect will show up next month as events and travel are cancelled and there is less spending after the New Year amid increased restrictions and staff shortages.
This hit to growth will pass quickly, according to experts.
Governments are ready to support the recovery, which should get us through any rough patches like Omicron.
For example, the People’s Bank of China has promised to be “proactive” with its policies and Japan has passed a record budget for the next fiscal year.
Besides surging Covid-19 cases, another concern to mitigate any optimism has been rising prices for everything including fuel and food.
Inflation could dampen growth if it doesn’t abate as soon as many predict it will.
These are known risks at least.
If the sunnier assessments prove accurate, we should shrug them off by the middle of next year. Given what we have been through over the past two years it would be understandable if the natural response of decision makers would be to remain cautious or even pessimistic.
Instead, we could in fact experience outsized economic expansion in 2022 and beyond – far better than what we had before the pandemic and representing a return to levels of growth we saw before the financial crisis.
This is partly because of the pandemic not in spite of it.
Many chief executives around the world are worried about their own positions, according to a survey by consultancy AlixPartners. Their insecurity is caused by the disruption to a vast range of industries that has been accelerated and they must now adapt to that change far quicker than they expected just a year ago.
The jeopardy they are now facing means that dynamic strategies must be embarked upon aggressively.
Investment in technology, innovation and the emergence of new business models will spur on the global economy.
There will also be an acceleration in the job market.
CEBR said in advanced economies “the numbers of engineers and technologists that will be required within 10 years will be roughly double the number that are currently employed”.
“Artificial intelligence, robotics, virtual and augmented reality and medical are areas where we expect 300 per cent growth or more” in the UK.
As we enter the third year of the pandemic, we are also in the second year of the recovery phase and the “scale of the economic hit from the pandemic in 2020 now seems to have been a little less severe than we had assumed”, CEBR said.
If the recovery also proves to be better than expected, it could be a bumper time for more of us than just the bankers.
THE SPECS
Engine: 1.5-litre
Transmission: 6-speed automatic
Power: 110 horsepower
Torque: 147Nm
Price: From Dh59,700
On sale: now
The specs
Engine: Direct injection 4-cylinder 1.4-litre
Power: 150hp
Torque: 250Nm
Price: From Dh139,000
On sale: Now
Islamophobia definition
A widely accepted definition was made by the All Party Parliamentary Group on British Muslims in 2019: “Islamophobia is rooted in racism and is a type of racism that targets expressions of Muslimness or perceived Muslimness.” It further defines it as “inciting hatred or violence against Muslims”.
Milestones on the road to union
1970
October 26: Bahrain withdraws from a proposal to create a federation of nine with the seven Trucial States and Qatar.
December: Ahmed Al Suwaidi visits New York to discuss potential UN membership.
1971
March 1: Alex Douglas Hume, Conservative foreign secretary confirms that Britain will leave the Gulf and “strongly supports” the creation of a Union of Arab Emirates.
July 12: Historic meeting at which Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid make a binding agreement to create what will become the UAE.
July 18: It is announced that the UAE will be formed from six emirates, with a proposed constitution signed. RAK is not yet part of the agreement.
August 6: The fifth anniversary of Sheikh Zayed becoming Ruler of Abu Dhabi, with official celebrations deferred until later in the year.
August 15: Bahrain becomes independent.
September 3: Qatar becomes independent.
November 23-25: Meeting with Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid and senior British officials to fix December 2 as date of creation of the UAE.
November 29: At 5.30pm Iranian forces seize the Greater and Lesser Tunbs by force.
November 30: Despite a power sharing agreement, Tehran takes full control of Abu Musa.
November 31: UK officials visit all six participating Emirates to formally end the Trucial States treaties
December 2: 11am, Dubai. New Supreme Council formally elects Sheikh Zayed as President. Treaty of Friendship signed with the UK. 11.30am. Flag raising ceremony at Union House and Al Manhal Palace in Abu Dhabi witnessed by Sheikh Khalifa, then Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi.
December 6: Arab League formally admits the UAE. The first British Ambassador presents his credentials to Sheikh Zayed.
December 9: UAE joins the United Nations.
The Little Things
Directed by: John Lee Hancock
Starring: Denzel Washington, Rami Malek, Jared Leto
Four stars
Who has lived at The Bishops Avenue?
- George Sainsbury of the supermarket dynasty, sugar magnate William Park Lyle and actress Dame Gracie Fields were residents in the 1930s when the street was only known as ‘Millionaires’ Row’.
- Then came the international super rich, including the last king of Greece, Constantine II, the Sultan of Brunei and Indian steel magnate Lakshmi Mittal who was at one point ranked the third richest person in the world.
- Turkish tycoon Halis Torprak sold his mansion for £50m in 2008 after spending just two days there. The House of Saud sold 10 properties on the road in 2013 for almost £80m.
- Other residents have included Iraqi businessman Nemir Kirdar, singer Ariana Grande, holiday camp impresario Sir Billy Butlin, businessman Asil Nadir, Paul McCartney’s former wife Heather Mills.
Hunting park to luxury living
- Land was originally the Bishop of London's hunting park, hence the name
- The road was laid out in the mid 19th Century, meandering through woodland and farmland
- Its earliest houses at the turn of the 20th Century were substantial detached properties with extensive grounds
Essentials
The flights
Etihad and Emirates fly direct from the UAE to Delhi from about Dh950 return including taxes.
The hotels
Double rooms at Tijara Fort-Palace cost from 6,670 rupees (Dh377), including breakfast.
Doubles at Fort Bishangarh cost from 29,030 rupees (Dh1,641), including breakfast. Doubles at Narendra Bhawan cost from 15,360 rupees (Dh869). Doubles at Chanoud Garh cost from 19,840 rupees (Dh1,122), full board. Doubles at Fort Begu cost from 10,000 rupees (Dh565), including breakfast.
The tours
Amar Grover travelled with Wild Frontiers. A tailor-made, nine-day itinerary via New Delhi, with one night in Tijara and two nights in each of the remaining properties, including car/driver, costs from £1,445 (Dh6,968) per person.
Huddersfield Town permanent signings:
- Steve Mounie (striker): signed from Montpellier for £11 million
- Tom Ince (winger): signed from Derby County for £7.7m
- Aaron Mooy (midfielder): signed from Manchester City for £7.7m
- Laurent Depoitre (striker): signed from Porto for £3.4m
- Scott Malone (defender): signed from Fulham for £3.3m
- Zanka (defender): signed from Copenhagen for £2.3m
- Elias Kachunga (winger): signed for Ingolstadt for £1.1m
- Danny WIlliams (midfielder): signed from Reading on a free transfer
In-demand jobs and monthly salaries
- Technology expert in robotics and automation: Dh20,000 to Dh40,000
- Energy engineer: Dh25,000 to Dh30,000
- Production engineer: Dh30,000 to Dh40,000
- Data-driven supply chain management professional: Dh30,000 to Dh50,000
- HR leader: Dh40,000 to Dh60,000
- Engineering leader: Dh30,000 to Dh55,000
- Project manager: Dh55,000 to Dh65,000
- Senior reservoir engineer: Dh40,000 to Dh55,000
- Senior drilling engineer: Dh38,000 to Dh46,000
- Senior process engineer: Dh28,000 to Dh38,000
- Senior maintenance engineer: Dh22,000 to Dh34,000
- Field engineer: Dh6,500 to Dh7,500
- Field supervisor: Dh9,000 to Dh12,000
- Field operator: Dh5,000 to Dh7,000
The specs
Engine: 3-litre twin-turbo V6
Power: 400hp
Torque: 475Nm
Transmission: 9-speed automatic
Price: From Dh215,900
On sale: Now
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Sholto Byrnes on Myanmar politics
Tips to keep your car cool
- Place a sun reflector in your windshield when not driving
- Park in shaded or covered areas
- Add tint to windows
- Wrap your car to change the exterior colour
- Pick light interiors - choose colours such as beige and cream for seats and dashboard furniture
- Avoid leather interiors as these absorb more heat
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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1.
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United States
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2.
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China
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3.
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UAE
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4.
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Japan
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5
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Norway
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6.
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Canada
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7.
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Singapore
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8.
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Australia
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Saudi Arabia
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South Korea
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COMPANY%20PROFILE
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THE%20SPECS
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WHAT%20MACRO%20FACTORS%20ARE%20IMPACTING%20META%20TECH%20MARKETS%3F
%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Looming%20global%20slowdown%20and%20recession%20in%20key%20economies%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Russia-Ukraine%20war%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Interest%20rate%20hikes%20and%20the%20rising%20cost%20of%20debt%20servicing%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Oil%20price%20volatility%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Persisting%20inflationary%20pressures%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Exchange%20rate%20fluctuations%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Shortage%20of%20labour%2Fskills%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20A%20resurgence%20of%20Covid%3F%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
