Fourteen years ago, in December, 2007, a decade of economic expansion in the US came to an end. The growth period prior to that – which ended in 2001 – lasted 10 years.
Officially the recession in the US that followed the financial crisis and collapse of Lehmann Brothers investment bank only lasted about two years.
However, we were plagued by relatively weak levels of economic growth – not just in America but around the world, too – for at least 10 years from that point.
Then we were hit by the pandemic in early 2020. The prognosis for growth was bleak a year ago, amid lockdowns and stalled businesses.
Now it would seem though that in the wake of Covid-19 we might be once again on the brink of a new era of outstanding economic growth.
Goldman Sachs expects the UK economy to grow 4.8 per cent next year, the US to grow 3.5 per cent, 4 per cent in Germany and 4.4 per cent in Italy and France.
The final three months of 2021 have been a period of increased economic activity despite the spread of the Omicron variant of the coronavirus.
In the US, for example, growth forecasts for the fourth quarter are at as high as a 7.5 per cent annualised rate. The country is expected to grow 5.6 per cent this year, which would be the fastest since 1984, according to Reuters. The American economy contracted 3.4 per cent in 2020 by comparison.
"The economy was running on all cylinders in the fourth quarter," Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton in Chicago told Reuters.
On Wall Street, for example, investment bankers brought in hundreds of billions of dollars in fees this year. They are anticipating bumper bonuses.
As some of the world’s leading business and economics experts explained on a new podcast series by The National, called PCR: Post Covid-19 Recovery, we are experiencing a fast economic rebound.
In the latest World Economic League Table, the Centre for Economics and Business Research says global GDP in 2022 will cross $100 trillion for the first time. In 2020, CEBR forecast that this would not occur until 2024.
“There is substantially more momentum going into 2022 than we had previously envisaged,” it said this week.
The final three months of 2021 have been a period of increased economic activity despite the spread of Omicron
However, Omicron’s effect will show up next month as events and travel are cancelled and there is less spending after the New Year amid increased restrictions and staff shortages.
This hit to growth will pass quickly, according to experts.
Governments are ready to support the recovery, which should get us through any rough patches like Omicron.
For example, the People’s Bank of China has promised to be “proactive” with its policies and Japan has passed a record budget for the next fiscal year.
Besides surging Covid-19 cases, another concern to mitigate any optimism has been rising prices for everything including fuel and food.
Inflation could dampen growth if it doesn’t abate as soon as many predict it will.
These are known risks at least.
If the sunnier assessments prove accurate, we should shrug them off by the middle of next year. Given what we have been through over the past two years it would be understandable if the natural response of decision makers would be to remain cautious or even pessimistic.
Instead, we could in fact experience outsized economic expansion in 2022 and beyond – far better than what we had before the pandemic and representing a return to levels of growth we saw before the financial crisis.
This is partly because of the pandemic not in spite of it.
Many chief executives around the world are worried about their own positions, according to a survey by consultancy AlixPartners. Their insecurity is caused by the disruption to a vast range of industries that has been accelerated and they must now adapt to that change far quicker than they expected just a year ago.
The jeopardy they are now facing means that dynamic strategies must be embarked upon aggressively.
Investment in technology, innovation and the emergence of new business models will spur on the global economy.
There will also be an acceleration in the job market.
CEBR said in advanced economies “the numbers of engineers and technologists that will be required within 10 years will be roughly double the number that are currently employed”.
“Artificial intelligence, robotics, virtual and augmented reality and medical are areas where we expect 300 per cent growth or more” in the UK.
As we enter the third year of the pandemic, we are also in the second year of the recovery phase and the “scale of the economic hit from the pandemic in 2020 now seems to have been a little less severe than we had assumed”, CEBR said.
If the recovery also proves to be better than expected, it could be a bumper time for more of us than just the bankers.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
TO A LAND UNKNOWN
Director: Mahdi Fleifel
Starring: Mahmoud Bakri, Aram Sabbah, Mohammad Alsurafa
Rating: 4.5/5
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Paatal Lok season two
Directors: Avinash Arun, Prosit Roy
Stars: Jaideep Ahlawat, Ishwak Singh, Lc Sekhose, Merenla Imsong
Rating: 4.5/5
Electric scooters: some rules to remember
- Riders must be 14-years-old or over
- Wear a protective helmet
- Park the electric scooter in designated parking lots (if any)
- Do not leave electric scooter in locations that obstruct traffic or pedestrians
- Solo riders only, no passengers allowed
- Do not drive outside designated lanes
Tearful appearance
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.
A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
Leaderboard
63 - Mike Lorenzo-Vera (FRA)
64 - Rory McIlroy (NIR)
66 - Jon Rahm (ESP)
67 - Tom Lewis (ENG), Tommy Fleetwood (ENG)
68 - Rafael Cabrera-Bello (ESP), Marcus Kinhult (SWE)
69 - Justin Rose (ENG), Thomas Detry (BEL), Francesco Molinari (ITA), Danny Willett (ENG), Li Haotong (CHN), Matthias Schwab (AUT)
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
Other workplace saving schemes
- The UAE government announced a retirement savings plan for private and free zone sector employees in 2023.
- Dubai’s savings retirement scheme for foreign employees working in the emirate’s government and public sector came into effect in 2022.
- National Bonds unveiled a Golden Pension Scheme in 2022 to help private-sector foreign employees with their financial planning.
- In April 2021, Hayah Insurance unveiled a workplace savings plan to help UAE employees save for their retirement.
- Lunate, an Abu Dhabi-based investment manager, has launched a fund that will allow UAE private companies to offer employees investment returns on end-of-service benefits.
Know before you go
- Jebel Akhdar is a two-hour drive from Muscat airport or a six-hour drive from Dubai. It’s impossible to visit by car unless you have a 4x4. Phone ahead to the hotel to arrange a transfer.
- If you’re driving, make sure your insurance covers Oman.
- By air: Budget airlines Air Arabia, Flydubai and SalamAir offer direct routes to Muscat from the UAE.
- Tourists from the Emirates (UAE nationals not included) must apply for an Omani visa online before arrival at evisa.rop.gov.om. The process typically takes several days.
- Flash floods are probable due to the terrain and a lack of drainage. Always check the weather before venturing into any canyons or other remote areas and identify a plan of escape that includes high ground, shelter and parking where your car won’t be overtaken by sudden downpours.
THE SPECS
Engine: 1.5-litre turbocharged four-cylinder
Transmission: Constant Variable (CVT)
Power: 141bhp
Torque: 250Nm
Price: Dh64,500
On sale: Now
Profile of Bitex UAE
Date of launch: November 2018
Founder: Monark Modi
Based: Business Bay, Dubai
Sector: Financial services
Size: Eight employees
Investors: Self-funded to date with $1m of personal savings
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Mina Cup winners
Under 12 – Minerva Academy
Under 14 – Unam Pumas
Under 16 – Fursan Hispania
Under 18 – Madenat
Mane points for safe home colouring
- Natural and grey hair takes colour differently than chemically treated hair
- Taking hair from a dark to a light colour should involve a slow transition through warmer stages of colour
- When choosing a colour (especially a lighter tone), allow for a natural lift of warmth
- Most modern hair colours are technique-based, in that they require a confident hand and taught skills
- If you decide to be brave and go for it, seek professional advice and use a semi-permanent colour
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MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
What are the influencer academy modules?
- Mastery of audio-visual content creation.
- Cinematography, shots and movement.
- All aspects of post-production.
- Emerging technologies and VFX with AI and CGI.
- Understanding of marketing objectives and audience engagement.
- Tourism industry knowledge.
- Professional ethics.
MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE – FINAL RECKONING
Director: Christopher McQuarrie
Starring: Tom Cruise, Hayley Atwell, Simon Pegg
Rating: 4/5
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
The specs: Lamborghini Aventador SVJ
Price, base: Dh1,731,672
Engine: 6.5-litre V12
Gearbox: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 770hp @ 8,500rpm
Torque: 720Nm @ 6,750rpm
Fuel economy: 19.6L / 100km
