US politics seems to be following an extremely familiar script these days.
At the end of his first year, a new president is both achieving a great deal – indeed far more than his recent predecessors – yet is struggling at the polls with his party set for a potentially significant midterm congressional defeat. If Americans follow their well-established pattern, the Democrats will sustain significant losses next November, but two years later Joe Biden, health permitting, will be reelected.
Yet, patterns are just templates, and outcomes frequently deviate from them. Donald Trump, Mr Biden's predecessor, crashed to a significant defeat last year. And both parties are currently beset by conflicting impulses of optimism and pessimism that are equally easy to justify and critique.
According to most current polls, the Republican advantage in the upcoming congressional races looks overwhelming.
Americans are currently expressing an unprecedented preference for generic Republicans over generic Democrats, with 46 per cent preferring Republican control of the House of Representatives versus 41 per cent favouring the Democrats. And several key states have been gerrymandered to the point that Democrats would require impossible super majorities to prevail.
Yet, this bleak picture for Democrats, both in terms of historical patterns and present trends, could be misleading.
The midterm election is still 12 months away, and a great deal will change. Many Democrats are consoling themselves it's in November 2022, not 2021.
Many believe that the polling has yet to reflect the recent $1 trillion infrastructure bill breakthrough. And optimism is growing that some version of the $2tn "Build Back Better" social spending bill that just passed the House will ultimately be agreed upon by Senate Democrats as well.
If that happens, they will go into the midterms with undoubtedly the strongest package of governance achievements in more than 50 years. Although even that hardly guarantees them success, it gives them the best possible opportunity to buck the historical trend and retain control of one or both houses of Congress.
But Republicans face a much bigger problem than a potential resurgence of popularity for Mr Biden and the Democrats: Mr Trump.
The former president remains wildly popular among the Republican base, but it is becoming increasingly obvious that much of the party leadership regards him as the greatest potential obstacle for success at the polls.
The biggest concern is that he persists in endlessly relitigating the 2020 election, insisting it was the biggest fraud in US history without any evidence. Very few, if any, Republican leaders believe this and they are aware most of the public does not either.
Yet, Mr Trump with his iron grip on the party base has insisted on making fealty to his "big lie" about rampant election fraud a litmus test for Republican politicians. The fear is that if the party and its candidates generally run on claims that US democracy is a fraud and that the 2020 election was stolen, that will spell disaster in most swing states.
Even many voters who have unfounded questions about the integrity of the last election, largely because they keep hearing baseless claims to that effect, nonetheless understand the country must move on. There are no provisions in US law for reversing any of the outcome. Yet, Mr Trump is fixated on convincing everyone that he did not lose because he does not lose anything ever. This only plays well among the most devoted followers.
The tension among Republican leaders between confidence in their chances and fears of Mr Trump's potential to ruin everything have been greatly reinforced by the victory of Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin in Virginia, a state Mr Biden carried by 10 points in last year's presidential election.
Mr Youngkin echoed many of Mr Trump's culture wars talking points, but he almost never mentioned the former president and pretended, in effect, that he didn't exist. His veteran Democratic opponent, Terry McAuliffe, based his whole campaign on bashing Mr Trump, but because Mr Youngkin successfully distanced himself from him and his claims about 2020, it was ineffective.
But there are increasing signs that Mr Trump, although he did not interfere in Virginia, is increasingly asserting his role as a kingmaker and arbiter among Republican candidates. His criteria largely centre around loyalty to him, his groundless claims of 2020 election fraud, and, most recently, ousting any Republicans who dared to vote for the infrastructure bill.
He is increasingly harassing Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell, consistently deriding him as an "old crow", and attacking and trying to unseat the governors of Republican states he lost, such as Doug Ducey of Arizona and Brian Kemp of Georgia.
The party leadership, of course, wants to reelect strong incumbent governors and members of Congress. This is the clearest clash of interests between Mr Trump and his nominal party (he spent most of his life as a relatively liberal Democrat) since the Republican primaries of 2016.
With the political situation so unsettled, historical patterns are probably still the best guide
Back then, the party leadership did not want Mr Trump as its nominee, but he was able to force himself upon them by overwhelmingly winning most primaries. It must be a major case of deja vu for party bigwigs.
They sense a huge opportunity, but not only do they have to worry about a possible Democratic recovery, their de facto leader appears to be preparing to sabotage many of their key candidates and pull their party even further to the radical right. And few of them believe he could regain the White House in 2024 by harping on the election in 2020.
With the political situation so unsettled, historical patterns are probably still the best guide. Republicans may not score the overwhelming victories they anticipate in Congress next year, but tradition suggests they will at least retake the House.
But if Mr Biden can add the $2tn social spending bill to the already passed $1.9tn pandemic relief measure and $1tn infrastructure bill, he will have accumulated more than enough to justify reelection in 2024, as the same historical patterns would suggest he probably will.
So, Democrats are aware that they probably have less than a year to secure whatever they can in additional spending and, just possibly, protecting elections and voting rights. After that, two years of gridlock apparently awaits. But if this pattern holds, their redemption comes in 2024, not next November. Though they may face a painful setback, that's a pretty good scenario for Mr Biden and his party.
Pharaoh's curse
British aristocrat Lord Carnarvon, who funded the expedition to find the Tutankhamun tomb, died in a Cairo hotel four months after the crypt was opened.
He had been in poor health for many years after a car crash, and a mosquito bite made worse by a shaving cut led to blood poisoning and pneumonia.
Reports at the time said Lord Carnarvon suffered from “pain as the inflammation affected the nasal passages and eyes”.
Decades later, scientists contended he had died of aspergillosis after inhaling spores of the fungus aspergillus in the tomb, which can lie dormant for months. The fact several others who entered were also found dead withiin a short time led to the myth of the curse.
About RuPay
A homegrown card payment scheme launched by the National Payments Corporation of India and backed by the Reserve Bank of India, the country’s central bank
RuPay process payments between banks and merchants for purchases made with credit or debit cards
It has grown rapidly in India and competes with global payment network firms like MasterCard and Visa.
In India, it can be used at ATMs, for online payments and variations of the card can be used to pay for bus, metro charges, road toll payments
The name blends two words rupee and payment
Some advantages of the network include lower processing fees and transaction costs
Black Panther
Dir: Ryan Coogler
Starring: Chadwick Boseman, Michael B Jordan, Lupita Nyong'o
Five stars
Feeding the thousands for iftar
Six industrial scale vats of 500litres each are used to cook the kanji or broth
Each vat contains kanji or porridge to feed 1,000 people
The rice porridge is poured into a 500ml plastic box
350 plastic tubs are placed in one container trolley
Each aluminium container trolley weighing 300kg is unloaded by a small crane fitted on a truck
Evacuations to France hit by controversy
- Over 500 Gazans have been evacuated to France since November 2023
- Evacuations were paused after a student already in France posted anti-Semitic content and was subsequently expelled to Qatar
- The Foreign Ministry launched a review to determine how authorities failed to detect the posts before her entry
- Artists and researchers fall under a programme called Pause that began in 2017
- It has benefited more than 700 people from 44 countries, including Syria, Turkey, Iran, and Sudan
- Since the start of the Gaza war, it has also included 45 Gazan beneficiaries
- Unlike students, they are allowed to bring their families to France
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre turbo 4-cyl
Transmission: eight-speed auto
Power: 190bhp
Torque: 300Nm
Price: Dh169,900
On sale: now
Brief scores:
Liverpool 3
Mane 24', Shaqiri 73', 80'
Manchester United 1
Lingard 33'
Man of the Match: Fabinho (Liverpool)
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh117,059
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
Our legal consultants
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
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BANGLADESH SQUAD
Mashrafe Mortaza (captain), Tamim Iqbal, Liton Das, Soumya Sarkar, Mushfiqur Rahim (wicketkeeper), Mahmudullah, Shakib Al Hasan (vice captain), Mohammad Mithun, Sabbir Rahaman, Mosaddek Hossain, Mohammad Saifuddin, Mehidy Hasan Miraz, Rubel Hossain, Mustafizur Rahman, Abu Jayed (Reporting by Rohith Nair in Bengaluru Editing by Amlan Chakraborty)
Three ways to get a gratitude glow
By committing to at least one of these daily, you can bring more gratitude into your life, says Ong.
- During your morning skincare routine, name five things you are thankful for about yourself.
- As you finish your skincare routine, look yourself in the eye and speak an affirmation, such as: “I am grateful for every part of me, including my ability to take care of my skin.”
- In the evening, take some deep breaths, notice how your skin feels, and listen for what your skin is grateful for.
UAE v Gibraltar
What: International friendly
When: 7pm kick off
Where: Rugby Park, Dubai Sports City
Admission: Free
Online: The match will be broadcast live on Dubai Exiles’ Facebook page
UAE squad: Lucas Waddington (Dubai Exiles), Gio Fourie (Exiles), Craig Nutt (Abu Dhabi Harlequins), Phil Brady (Harlequins), Daniel Perry (Dubai Hurricanes), Esekaia Dranibota (Harlequins), Matt Mills (Exiles), Jaen Botes (Exiles), Kristian Stinson (Exiles), Murray Reason (Abu Dhabi Saracens), Dave Knight (Hurricanes), Ross Samson (Jebel Ali Dragons), DuRandt Gerber (Exiles), Saki Naisau (Dragons), Andrew Powell (Hurricanes), Emosi Vacanau (Harlequins), Niko Volavola (Dragons), Matt Richards (Dragons), Luke Stevenson (Harlequins), Josh Ives (Dubai Sports City Eagles), Sean Stevens (Saracens), Thinus Steyn (Exiles)
Scoreline
Australia 2-1 Thailand
Australia: Juric 69', Leckie 86'
Thailand: Pokklaw 82'
SERIES INFO
Cricket World Cup League Two
Nepal, Oman, United States tri-series
Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu
Fixtures
Wednesday February 5, Oman v Nepal
Thursday, February 6, Oman v United States
Saturday, February 8, United States v Nepal
Sunday, February 9, Oman v Nepal
Tuesday, February 11, Oman v United States
Wednesday, February 12, United States v Nepal
Table
The top three sides advance to the 2022 World Cup Qualifier.
The bottom four sides are relegated to the 2022 World Cup playoff
1 United States 8 6 2 0 0 12 0.412
2 Scotland 8 4 3 0 1 9 0.139
3 Namibia 7 4 3 0 0 8 0.008
4 Oman 6 4 2 0 0 8 -0.139
5 UAE 7 3 3 0 1 7 -0.004
6 Nepal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
7 PNG 8 0 8 0 0 0 -0.458
What can you do?
Document everything immediately; including dates, times, locations and witnesses
Seek professional advice from a legal expert
You can report an incident to HR or an immediate supervisor
You can use the Ministry of Human Resources and Emiratisation’s dedicated hotline
In criminal cases, you can contact the police for additional support
BMW M5 specs
Engine: 4.4-litre twin-turbo V-8 petrol enging with additional electric motor
Power: 727hp
Torque: 1,000Nm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 10.6L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh650,000
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Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Milestones on the road to union
1970
October 26: Bahrain withdraws from a proposal to create a federation of nine with the seven Trucial States and Qatar.
December: Ahmed Al Suwaidi visits New York to discuss potential UN membership.
1971
March 1: Alex Douglas Hume, Conservative foreign secretary confirms that Britain will leave the Gulf and “strongly supports” the creation of a Union of Arab Emirates.
July 12: Historic meeting at which Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid make a binding agreement to create what will become the UAE.
July 18: It is announced that the UAE will be formed from six emirates, with a proposed constitution signed. RAK is not yet part of the agreement.
August 6: The fifth anniversary of Sheikh Zayed becoming Ruler of Abu Dhabi, with official celebrations deferred until later in the year.
August 15: Bahrain becomes independent.
September 3: Qatar becomes independent.
November 23-25: Meeting with Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid and senior British officials to fix December 2 as date of creation of the UAE.
November 29: At 5.30pm Iranian forces seize the Greater and Lesser Tunbs by force.
November 30: Despite a power sharing agreement, Tehran takes full control of Abu Musa.
November 31: UK officials visit all six participating Emirates to formally end the Trucial States treaties
December 2: 11am, Dubai. New Supreme Council formally elects Sheikh Zayed as President. Treaty of Friendship signed with the UK. 11.30am. Flag raising ceremony at Union House and Al Manhal Palace in Abu Dhabi witnessed by Sheikh Khalifa, then Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi.
December 6: Arab League formally admits the UAE. The first British Ambassador presents his credentials to Sheikh Zayed.
December 9: UAE joins the United Nations.
South Africa's T20 squad
Duminy (c), Behardien, Dala, De Villiers, Hendricks, Jonker, Klaasen (wkt), Miller, Morris, Paterson, Phangiso, Phehlukwayo, Shamsi, Smuts.
MATCH INFO
Championship play-offs, second legs:
Aston Villa 0
Middlesbrough 0
(Aston Villa advance 1-0 on aggregate)
Fulham 2
Sessegnon (47'), Odoi (66')
Derby County 0
(Fulham advance 2-1 on aggregate)
Final
Saturday, May 26, Wembley. Kick off 8pm (UAE)
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