Diplomats, officials, analysts and journalists interested in Iraq have spent months hypothesising about what Iraq’s general elections will mean for the country. Questions abound regarding who will form the next government, what the impact on militias on the ground will be and what influence Iran may have on it.
But given the dysfunction in the political system and the lack of inspirational candidates with clear manifestos or plans, there are no real discussions on how the elections will improve the lives of ordinary Iraqis. With entrenched corruption (Iraq ranks 160th in Transparency International's ranking on corruption) and endemic governance problems, the elections themselves seem less relevant. Nonetheless, the outcome of the elections and which political blocs emerge stronger or weaker will count for the country and its future.
One of the few virtues of Iraq’s political process is that the outcome is genuinely unknown and not pre-determined. And as election day on Sunday approaches, the hypotheses increase, but much will depend on how the voting plays out.
Certain matters, however, are clear in advance. First, voter turnout is expected to be low. It is unlikely to more than 40 per cent of the country's 24 million registered voters. Close to a million of these are first-time voters, and given the role of young people in protests since 2019, they are unlikely to vote for the traditional ruling parties. It is unclear how many of them will turn out, but spot polling and the general mood suggest that figures will be on the low side. The general sentiment is that a vote in the elections is a vote endorsing a broken political system that for 18 years has not served the people of Iraq well.
Activists in the national protests that kicked off in October 2019 and led to the fall of Adil AbdulMahdi’s government had made a call for early elections one of their main demands. They also demanded steps to reform the political system – particularly the parliamentary system that breeds coalition governments formed on political party interests rather than governing platforms. While Prime Minister Mustafa Al Kadhimi called for the elections to be brought forward from their original date in May 2022 based on the demands of the protestors, he has not been able to convince them that the limited reforms made to the voting system will be enough to enable real change.
Supporters of the elections, particularly Iraqi politicians, the US and European powers, insist that this is the only viable system for a peaceful transfer of power in the country. They fear a low voter turnout will further discredit the political system in place, and entrench existing parties that have a small but vocal core group of supporters. In the last elections, held in 2018, turnout was only 35 per cent.
The UN has led the charge in trying to get Iraqis to vote. From roping in Iraqis celebrities to running social media campaigns to promising to monitor the elections, the UN is keen to show that it is able to play a constructive role in reforming Iraq’s political landscape.
One of the few virtues of Iraq’s political process is that the outcome is genuinely unknown
On Wednesday, the Foreign Ministers of Australia, Canada, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden, the UK and US all issued a joint statement saying: “This early election is an opportunity for Iraqi voters to democratically determine their future”. There is not much evidence, however, that these elections will provide that opportunity.
Sixteen years have passed since Iraq held its first elections after the removal of Saddam Hussein from power. That vote in 2005 had a turnout, including Iraqis who voted from abroad, but in every election since, turnout has only decreased.
A defining factor leading to disillusionment with the elections is that the governments formed after the ballots are counted have little to do with the names that won in the elections. Political parties form coalition governments based on an opaque system of closed-door deal making. The result is that even if the ministers and senior officials change, the political actors and parties behind the scenes don’t.
The parliamentary system in Iraq does not support proportional representation, nor does it allow for truly representative government. However, the most recent electoral law amendment means that Iraq now has a "single, non-transferable vote" system. The upside is that this "first-past-the-post" approach favours candidates rather than party lists. But the down side is that it adds to the fracturing of the political landscape. More candidates will appear and new names will rise as a consequence – yet, the main parties will still be able to steer the government to serve their interests, even if based on compromise.
Islamist political parties backed by Iran are competing among themselves, as are the Kurdish and Sunni-majority political parties. No political party has emerged as being clear of sectarian or ethnic party politics, but some independents are seeking to emerge as MPs representing constituencies detached from ethnic and sectarian categories. Be it Shiite cleric Moqtada Al Sadr or former prime minister Nouri Al Maliki, Shiite Islamist leaders are betting on having a greater number of votes than others in order to be king makers with the next government.
There are clear merits to voting. But what really matters is what comes after the elections. Efforts must be made by stakeholders, Iraqi or foreign, who seek a stable Iraq to insist on key deliverables. First, the next government must commit to serious constitutional reform that can help the country emerge from the dysfunction and corruption it suffers. Second, the next government must commit to implementing deals struck during the Al Kadhimi administration, rather than scupper them and waste more time, particularly when it comes to energy and electricity generation. Third, the next government must include experts in their fields, particularly when it comes to health, energy, interior and education, in order to begin tackling the country's many ills.
This is the second election to take place in Iraq since ISIS was defeated, and little has been done politically to address the failures that allowed for the horrors of ISIS to happen in the first place. Instead, corruption has allowed organised crime to thrive. Unaccountable militias are becoming more and more entrenched in the state, and some of them may actually enter parliament in full force after these elections. Countries and international institutions interested in pushing back against these trends need to support efforts to build the capacity of the Iraqi state, finally get on with reconstruction in key cities, especially Mosul, and apply pressure on curbing corruption.
In the coming weeks, the jockeying for positions and benefits will reach a peak and then a government will be formed. While there is much curiosity over who will form the government and fill the most prominent of ministerial posts, the question that matters is whether that government will be able to deliver basic services to Iraq’s citizens. For now, all indicators are that a similar political make-up will emerge, as political groupings attempt to solidify the gains they made over the past few years, even if new names and faces are rolled out in an attempt to feign change. That would further discredit elections and risk violent responses.
From Conquest to Deportation
Jeronim Perovic, Hurst
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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SPECS
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The%20specs
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SQUADS
Bangladesh (from): Shadman Islam, Mominul Haque, Soumya Sarkar, Shakib Al Hasan (capt), Mahmudullah Riyad, Mohammad Mithun, Mushfiqur Rahim, Liton Das, Taijul Islam, Mosaddek Hossain, Nayeem Hasan, Mehedi Hasan, Taskin Ahmed, Ebadat Hossain, Abu Jayed
Afghanistan (from): Rashid Khan (capt), Ihsanullah Janat, Javid Ahmadi, Ibrahim Zadran, Rahmat Shah, Hashmatullah Shahidi, Asghar Afghan, Ikram Alikhil, Mohammad Nabi, Qais Ahmad, Sayed Ahmad Shirzad, Yamin Ahmadzai, Zahir Khan Pakteen, Afsar Zazai, Shapoor Zadran
THE CLOWN OF GAZA
Director: Abdulrahman Sabbah
Starring: Alaa Meqdad
Rating: 4/5
2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups
Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.
Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.
Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.
Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, (Leon banned).
Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.
Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.
Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.
Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UK-EU trade at a glance
EU fishing vessels guaranteed access to UK waters for 12 years
Co-operation on security initiatives and procurement of defence products
Youth experience scheme to work, study or volunteer in UK and EU countries
Smoother border management with use of e-gates
Cutting red tape on import and export of food
Famous left-handers
- Marie Curie
- Jimi Hendrix
- Leonardo Di Vinci
- David Bowie
- Paul McCartney
- Albert Einstein
- Jack the Ripper
- Barack Obama
- Helen Keller
- Joan of Arc
Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm
Price: From Dh1,700,000
Available: Now
Tearful appearance
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.
A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.
Company%C2%A0profile
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The biog
Name: Sarah Al Senaani
Age: 35
Martial status: Married with three children - aged 8, 6 and 2
Education: Masters of arts in cultural communication and tourism
Favourite movie: Captain Corelli’s Mandolin
Favourite hobbies: Art and horseback ridding
Occupation: Communication specialist at a government agency and the owner of Atelier
Favourite cuisine: Definitely Emirati - harees is my favourite dish
<html><head><meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html" charset="UTF-8" /></head><body><!--PSTYLE=* Labels%3aFH Label 18 Sport--><p>Beach soccer</p><!--PSTYLE=BY Byline--><p>Amith Passela</p><p /></body></html>
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Results
6.30pm: Mazrat Al Ruwayah Group Two (PA) US$55,000 (Dirt) 1,600m; Winner: Rasi, Harry Bentley (jockey), Sulaiman Al Ghunaimi (trainer).
7.05pm: Meydan Trophy (TB) $100,000 (Turf) 1,900m; Winner: Ya Hayati, William Buick, Charlie Appleby.
7.40pm: Handicap (TB) $135,000 (D) 1,200m; Winner: Bochart, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar.
8.15pm: Balanchine Group Two (TB) $250,000 (T) 1,800m; Winner: Magic Lily, William Buick, Charlie Appleby.
8.50pm: Handicap (TB) $135,000 (T) 1,000m; Winner: Waady, Jim Crowley, Doug Watson.
9.25pm: Firebreak Stakes Group Three (TB) $200,000 (D) 1,600m; Winner: Capezzano, Mickael Barzalona, Salem bin Ghadayer.
10pm: Handicap (TB) $175,000 (T) 2,410m; Winner: Eynhallow, Mickael Barzalona, Charlie Appleby.
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
Our legal columnist
Name: Yousef Al Bahar
Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994
Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers
Conflict, drought, famine
Estimates of the number of deaths caused by the famine range from 400,000 to 1 million, according to a document prepared for the UK House of Lords in 2024.
It has been claimed that the policies of the Ethiopian government, which took control after deposing Emperor Haile Selassie in a military-led revolution in 1974, contributed to the scale of the famine.
Dr Miriam Bradley, senior lecturer in humanitarian studies at the University of Manchester, has argued that, by the early 1980s, “several government policies combined to cause, rather than prevent, a famine which lasted from 1983 to 1985. Mengistu’s government imposed Stalinist-model agricultural policies involving forced collectivisation and villagisation [relocation of communities into planned villages].
The West became aware of the catastrophe through a series of BBC News reports by journalist Michael Buerk in October 1984 describing a “biblical famine” and containing graphic images of thousands of people, including children, facing starvation.
Band Aid
Bob Geldof, singer with the Irish rock group The Boomtown Rats, formed Band Aid in response to the horrific images shown in the news broadcasts.
With Midge Ure of the band Ultravox, he wrote the hit charity single Do They Know it’s Christmas in December 1984, featuring a string of high-profile musicians.
Following the single’s success, the idea to stage a rock concert evolved.
Live Aid was a series of simultaneous concerts that took place at Wembley Stadium in London, John F Kennedy Stadium in Philadelphia, the US, and at various other venues across the world.
The combined event was broadcast to an estimated worldwide audience of 1.5 billion.
'Texas Chainsaw Massacre'
Rating: 1 out of 4
Running time: 81 minutes
Director: David Blue Garcia
Starring: Sarah Yarkin, Elsie Fisher, Mark Burnham
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
Honeymoonish
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SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20APPLE%20M3%20MACBOOK%20AIR%20(13%22)
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ABU DHABI T10: DAY TWO
Bangla Tigers v Deccan Gladiators (3.30pm)
Delhi Bulls v Karnataka Tuskers (5.45pm)
Northern Warriors v Qalandars (8.00pm)
Game Changer
Director: Shankar
Stars: Ram Charan, Kiara Advani, Anjali, S J Suryah, Jayaram
Rating: 2/5
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
FA CUP FINAL
Chelsea 1
Hazard (22' pen)
Manchester United 0
Man of the match: Eden Hazard (Chelsea)
The specs: 2018 Audi RS5
Price, base: Dh359,200
Engine: 2.9L twin-turbo V6
Transmission: Eight-speed automatic
Power: 450hp at 5,700rpm
Torque: 600Nm at 1,900rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 8.7L / 100km
MATCH INFO
What: 2006 World Cup quarter-final
When: July 1
Where: Gelsenkirchen Stadium, Gelsenkirchen, Germany
Result:
England 0 Portugal 0
(Portugal win 3-1 on penalties)
'Skin'
Dir: Guy Nattiv
Starring: Jamie Bell, Danielle McDonald, Bill Camp, Vera Farmiga
Rating: 3.5/5 stars
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Herc's Adventures
Developer: Big Ape Productions
Publisher: LucasArts
Console: PlayStation 1 & 5, Sega Saturn
Rating: 4/5
All%20We%20Imagine%20as%20Light
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TRAP
Starring: Josh Hartnett, Saleka Shyamalan, Ariel Donaghue
Director: M Night Shyamalan
Rating: 3/5
ELECTION%20RESULTS
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Sri Lanka-India Test series schedule
- 1st Test India won by 304 runs at Galle
- 2nd Test India won by innings and 53 runs at Colombo
- 3rd Test August 12-16 at Pallekele
'Outclassed in Kuwait'
Taleb Alrefai,
HBKU Press
MO
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Some of Darwish's last words
"They see their tomorrows slipping out of their reach. And though it seems to them that everything outside this reality is heaven, yet they do not want to go to that heaven. They stay, because they are afflicted with hope." - Mahmoud Darwish, to attendees of the Palestine Festival of Literature, 2008
His life in brief: Born in a village near Galilee, he lived in exile for most of his life and started writing poetry after high school. He was arrested several times by Israel for what were deemed to be inciteful poems. Most of his work focused on the love and yearning for his homeland, and he was regarded the Palestinian poet of resistance. Over the course of his life, he published more than 30 poetry collections and books of prose, with his work translated into more than 20 languages. Many of his poems were set to music by Arab composers, most significantly Marcel Khalife. Darwish died on August 9, 2008 after undergoing heart surgery in the United States. He was later buried in Ramallah where a shrine was erected in his honour.
