There is perhaps no greater symbol to describe what Taro Kono, contender to be the next Japanese prime minister, is up against than the humble fax machine.
As Minister of Administrative Reform and Regulatory Reform, Mr Kono’s task over the past year has been to modernise the way Japan’s federal government functions. But one of his more visible crusades, to ban fax machines from government departments and direct employees to embrace email, has met so much pushback that he has had to make a number of exceptions along the way.
That there is such a thing as the “Ministry of Administrative Reform and Regulatory Reform” is proof enough that the government desperately needs modernisation. That Mr Kono, a former defence minister, has embraced the onerous job of carrying it out suggests he is a reformist. He certainly portrays the image of an outlier, often speaking his mind on Twitter and at news conferences and talking in chaste English – hardly a feature among Japanese politicians.
But not everyone in the establishment approves of these qualities. Many of them happen to be his fellow members of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party.
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On Wednesday, the LDP will vote for a new leader. By virtue of the party having a majority in the lower house of the National Diet, as Japan’s legislature is known, its president will become the country’s prime minister. But almost immediately after taking over from the incumbent, Yoshihide Suga, he or she has to prepare the LDP for a general election, to be held no later than November 28.
Party members in recent weeks have debated whether their next leader should be a popular figure among a Japanese electorate yearning for change, or an establishment type who will refrain from rocking the boat. Mr Kono, some believe, is more of a boat-rocker.
In key opinion polls, he enjoys a healthy lead among the party’s rank-and-file members – up to 47 per cent back his candidacy. Many fellow leaders and their powerful factions are far less enthusiastic, rooting instead for former foreign minister Fumio Kishida, an experienced politician who is nowhere near as popular as Mr Kono is with the people.
Complicating matters for both men is the fact that the other two contenders in the race are women; Japan has never had a woman as prime minister. One of them, Sanae Takaichi, is an acolyte of former prime minister Shinzo Abe and, like him, a fierce nationalist and neoconservative. Unsurprisingly, Ms Takaichi has Mr Abe’s endorsement. Also backing her is Finance Minister Taro Aso, even though the latter heads a faction to which Mr Kono belongs. That’s how much the establishment seems to fear Mr Kono.
The problem for Mr Kono is how the LDP picks its leader. Up for grabs are 764 votes, divvied up between the party’s 382 lawmakers and the roughly 1 million dues-paying members who make up the other 382 votes. If Mr Kono – or any other candidate – fails to win more than 50 per cent of the vote, there will be a run-off between the top two finishers. In this second round, the lawmakers will play an outsized role, with each getting one vote while ordinary party members will together command just 47 votes – one from each of Japan’s 47 prefectural chapters.
With Mr Kono most likely to top the first round, the party’s leaders will consider rallying behind whoever progresses to the second round with him. At this stage, that candidate could be Mr Kishida, although it would be unwise to count Ms Takaichi out.
Mr Kono, however, also enjoys broad support among the party’s younger lawmakers. These include Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, the son of former prime minister Junichiro Koizumi and himself a rising star who once famously pledged to make the fight against climate change “sexy”.
A churn is under way within the LDP. It has rarely faced such a sharp generational divide in its 65-year history. A number of young lawmakers are said to have been instrumental in ending Mr Suga's bid for reelection, given their unhappiness with the way he handled the pandemic and how that would affect their own electoral chances in November. But whether the generational divide is sharp enough to force out an all-powerful “old boys club” and move the party to the left with Mr Kono remains to be seen.
A churn is under way within the LDP
On substantive issues, it seems unlikely that the party will make a decisive break from the Abe-Suga years. In fact, all four candidates (including Mr Kono) have recommended only piecemeal changes to policies pursued by the current and previous prime ministers – whether on national defence, Covid-19 or how to deal with a rising China. Beyond calling for “an end to neoliberalism” and offering similar bromides that sound good ahead of a general election, few concrete proposals have been made.
Indeed Mr Kono himself has campaigned more like an establishment figure, softening some of his positions, including on nuclear energy. An ardent supporter of renewable energy, he is now also calling for the reopening of nuclear plants shut down after the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi disaster – a position that is popular within the party but deeply unpalatable for the public.
Be that as it may, Japanese politics has entered a phase of uncertainty. The LDP may still be the country's pre-eminent party. But after a decade of stability that coincided with Mr Abe’s record-long stint at the helm, and amid growing opposition unity in recent months, it risks returning to the 1990s and 2000s, when factional bickering and a conveyor-belt of prime ministers weakened the country’s standing in the world and contributed to its economic stagnation.
At a time of great flux in global politics, it will take great leadership on the part of whoever wins this week, well beyond dumping fax machines, to pull the party and country in a new direction.
more from Janine di Giovanni
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The currency conundrum
Russ Mould, investment director at online trading platform AJ Bell, says almost every major currency has challenges right now. “The US has a huge budget deficit, the euro faces political friction and poor growth, sterling is bogged down by Brexit, China’s renminbi is hit by debt fears while slowing Chinese growth is hurting commodity exporters like Australia and Canada.”
Most countries now actively want a weak currency to make their exports more competitive. “China seems happy to let the renminbi drift lower, the Swiss are still running quantitative easing at full tilt and central bankers everywhere are actively talking down their currencies or offering only limited support," says Mr Mould.
This is a race to the bottom, and everybody wants to be a winner.
Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
Price: From Dh98,800
Available: Now
More coverage from the Future Forum
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre turbo
Power: 181hp
Torque: 230Nm
Transmission: 6-speed automatic
Starting price: Dh79,000
On sale: Now
Who has been sanctioned?
Daniella Weiss and Nachala
Described as 'the grandmother of the settler movement', she has encouraged the expansion of settlements for decades. The 79 year old leads radical settler movement Nachala, whose aim is for Israel to annex Gaza and the occupied West Bank, where it helps settlers built outposts.
Harel Libi & Libi Construction and Infrastructure
Libi has been involved in threatening and perpetuating acts of aggression and violence against Palestinians. His firm has provided logistical and financial support for the establishment of illegal outposts.
Zohar Sabah
Runs a settler outpost named Zohar’s Farm and has previously faced charges of violence against Palestinians. He was indicted by Israel’s State Attorney’s Office in September for allegedly participating in a violent attack against Palestinians and activists in the West Bank village of Muarrajat.
Coco’s Farm and Neria’s Farm
These are illegal outposts in the West Bank, which are at the vanguard of the settler movement. According to the UK, they are associated with people who have been involved in enabling, inciting, promoting or providing support for activities that amount to “serious abuse”.
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The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League final:
Who: Real Madrid v Liverpool
Where: NSC Olimpiyskiy Stadium, Kiev, Ukraine
When: Saturday, May 26, 10.45pm (UAE)
TV: Match on BeIN Sports
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
GOLF’S RAHMBO
- 5 wins in 22 months as pro
- Three wins in past 10 starts
- 45 pro starts worldwide: 5 wins, 17 top 5s
- Ranked 551th in world on debut, now No 4 (was No 2 earlier this year)
- 5th player in last 30 years to win 3 European Tour and 2 PGA Tour titles before age 24 (Woods, Garcia, McIlroy, Spieth)
Volvo ES90 Specs
Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)
Power: 333hp, 449hp, 680hp
Torque: 480Nm, 670Nm, 870Nm
On sale: Later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on region
Price: Exact regional pricing TBA
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Know before you go
- Jebel Akhdar is a two-hour drive from Muscat airport or a six-hour drive from Dubai. It’s impossible to visit by car unless you have a 4x4. Phone ahead to the hotel to arrange a transfer.
- If you’re driving, make sure your insurance covers Oman.
- By air: Budget airlines Air Arabia, Flydubai and SalamAir offer direct routes to Muscat from the UAE.
- Tourists from the Emirates (UAE nationals not included) must apply for an Omani visa online before arrival at evisa.rop.gov.om. The process typically takes several days.
- Flash floods are probable due to the terrain and a lack of drainage. Always check the weather before venturing into any canyons or other remote areas and identify a plan of escape that includes high ground, shelter and parking where your car won’t be overtaken by sudden downpours.
The candidates
Dr Ayham Ammora, scientist and business executive
Ali Azeem, business leader
Tony Booth, professor of education
Lord Browne, former BP chief executive
Dr Mohamed El-Erian, economist
Professor Wyn Evans, astrophysicist
Dr Mark Mann, scientist
Gina MIller, anti-Brexit campaigner
Lord Smith, former Cabinet minister
Sandi Toksvig, broadcaster
Veil (Object Lessons)
Rafia Zakaria
Bloomsbury Academic
If you go
- The nearest international airport to the start of the Chuysky Trakt is in Novosibirsk. Emirates (www.emirates.com) offer codeshare flights with S7 Airlines (www.s7.ru) via Moscow for US$5,300 (Dh19,467) return including taxes. Cheaper flights are available on Flydubai and Air Astana or Aeroflot combination, flying via Astana in Kazakhstan or Moscow. Economy class tickets are available for US$650 (Dh2,400).
- The Double Tree by Hilton in Novosibirsk ( 7 383 2230100,) has double rooms from US$60 (Dh220). You can rent cabins at camp grounds or rooms in guesthouses in the towns for around US$25 (Dh90).
- The transport Minibuses run along the Chuysky Trakt but if you want to stop for sightseeing, hire a taxi from Gorno-Altaisk for about US$100 (Dh360) a day. Take a Russian phrasebook or download a translation app. Tour companies such as Altair-Tour ( 7 383 2125115 ) offer hiking and adventure packages.
