Recently, the American newspaper columnist Marc Thiessen wrote a piece on the debacle of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan. Mr Thiessen’s argument was that the fiasco in Kabul was much more a repeat of the withdrawal of US Marines from Beirut in 1984 than of the humiliating pull-out from Saigon in April 1975.
For him, the departure from Lebanon, after bomb attacks against the US embassy building in April 1983 and against a Marines barracks that killed 241 personnel the following October, emboldened America’s enemies, notably Osama bin Laden, emboldened America’s enemies, notably Osama bin Laden. “[I]f we pull out [of Afghanistan] on August 31 with our tail between our legs,” he wrote, “it will send a signal of weakness certain to inspire terrorists around the world.”
Mr Thiessen’s distress is understandable. But had he taken his argument a bit further, he might have seen that it was not so much the withdrawal from Lebanon itself that made a difference, even if it did encourage bin Laden, but the choices that Washington made in preparing its exit from the country and how they affected the aftermath.
By pulling out, the Reagan administration effectively sub-contracted Lebanon to Syria, and by extension Iran, a situation that continued under the George W Bush and Clinton administrations. This had far-reaching consequences. In the years after 1984, leading up to the Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon in 2005, Damascus played a central role in arming and reinforcing Hezbollah and advancing Iran’s interests in the Levant. While the costs may not have been as dramatic as the bombing of the Pentagon and the World Trade Centre, they are far more difficult to resolve.
The unforeseen impacts of bad choices often derive from an assumption that those choices will bring serene finality
Even if the US is disengaging from the broader Middle East, it still has significant stakes in the region. Iran’s bid for regional expansion in places such as Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen has threatened US allies, notably Israel and Gulf states. It also has the potential to destabilise global oil markets, with a negative knock-on effect for the US economic revival in a period after Covid-19. Furthermore, regional tensions could increase the probability of war or even a nuclear arms race, greatly affecting the region and beyond.
Hezbollah’s rise in Lebanon took place during the 1990s, when the group was protected by Syria, then the dominant power in the country. Hezbollah not only expanded its military capacities, it also became party to a formal agreement in April 1996, negotiated by former US secretary of state Warren Christopher, that established rules of engagement between the party and Israel. The document gave Hezbollah considerable legitimacy.
Not only did the Clinton administration implicitly recognise Hezbollah as a major actor on the Lebanese scene, but foreign officials continued to bless the Syrian order that made this possible. When Mr Christopher negotiated the April Understanding, or the 1996 Israeli-Lebanese Ceasefire Understanding, he did so in Damascus, not Beirut. Washington would not deviate from this approach, knowing that serious Lebanese business had to be concluded with the Syrian president at the time Hafez Al Assad.
By 2006, Hezbollah had turned into a major headache for the US, many Arab states, and Israel. The month-long war with Israel that year showed the party’s ability to remain a potent fighting force despite vast Israeli military superiority. The party’s capacities only increased in the 15 years since the end of the war, with Hezbollah developing precision guidance missiles, drones and a significant tunnelling capability.
While a future war is likely to be devastating for Lebanon, the country’s disastrous financial and economic situation probably means that Hezbollah would be able to survive such a conflict and impose its will on the rest of society afterwards.
In other words, while some like Mr Thiessen regard the American withdrawal from Beirut as the disaster, it was Washington’s assumption that the pull-out would bring a neat conclusion which was false. The political order the US encouraged by withdrawing was much more challenging to its interests and those of its allies in the long term. Foundational moments – such as the departure from Beirut or the retreat from Kabul – garner criticism, but the nature of what comes afterwards often matters more.
More proof of this is what happened in Afghanistan in 1989. The US imagined it had reached some sort of convenient resolution after winning the proxy war against the Soviet Union. It chose to disengage from the country rather than stabilise it. This would have been expected after the Americans had contributed to Afghanistan’s destruction by arming mujahideen groups, but it was not to be.
The ultimate outcome would be civil war, the Taliban takeover in 1994, Osama bin Laden’s return, and his use of the country to mount attacks against New York and Washington in September 2001. This would provoke the post 2001 US-led intervention that lasted for two decades. Each of these developments could have potentially been avoided.
The unforeseen impacts of bad choices often derive from an assumption that those choices will bring serene finality. The botched US pull-out from Afghanistan will be remembered for a long time, but what matters more is what the Biden administration helps to put in place once this phase is over. It will have to think this through carefully and not bring about a situation that means less security for Afghanistan and everyone else.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Red flags
- Promises of high, fixed or 'guaranteed' returns.
- Unregulated structured products or complex investments often used to bypass traditional safeguards.
- Lack of clear information, vague language, no access to audited financials.
- Overseas companies targeting investors in other jurisdictions - this can make legal recovery difficult.
- Hard-selling tactics - creating urgency, offering 'exclusive' deals.
Courtesy: Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching
BMW M5 specs
Engine: 4.4-litre twin-turbo V-8 petrol enging with additional electric motor
Power: 727hp
Torque: 1,000Nm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 10.6L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh650,000
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
The specs: 2018 BMW R nineT Scrambler
Price, base / as tested Dh57,000
Engine 1,170cc air/oil-cooled flat twin four-stroke engine
Transmission Six-speed gearbox
Power 110hp) @ 7,750rpm
Torque 116Nm @ 6,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined 5.3L / 100km
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Scoreline
Chelsea 1
Azpilicueta (36')
West Ham United 1
Hernandez (73')
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
The five pillars of Islam
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KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
The Sand Castle
Director: Matty Brown
Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea
Rating: 2.5/5
TEAMS
EUROPE:
Justin Rose, Francesco Molinari, Tyrrell Hatton, Tommy Fleetwood, Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Alex Noren, Thorbjorn Olesen, Paul Casey, Sergio Garcia, Ian Poulter, Henrik Stenson
USA:
Brooks Koepka, Justin Thomas, Dustin Johnson, Patrick Reed, Bubba Watson, Jordan Spieth, Rickie Fowler, Webb Simpson, Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson, Bryson DeChambeau ( 1 TBC)
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Copa del Rey
Barcelona v Real Madrid
Semi-final, first leg
Wednesday (midnight UAE)
From exhibitions to the battlefield
In 2016, the Shaded Dome was awarded with the 'De Vernufteling' people's choice award, an annual prize by the Dutch Association of Consulting Engineers and the Royal Netherlands Society of Engineers for the most innovative project by a Dutch engineering firm.
It was assigned by the Dutch Ministry of Defence to modify the Shaded Dome to make it suitable for ballistic protection. Royal HaskoningDHV, one of the companies which designed the dome, is an independent international engineering and project management consultancy, leading the way in sustainable development and innovation.
It is driving positive change through innovation and technology, helping use resources more efficiently.
It aims to minimise the impact on the environment by leading by example in its projects in sustainable development and innovation, to become part of the solution to a more sustainable society now and into the future.
War 2
Director: Ayan Mukerji
Stars: Hrithik Roshan, NTR, Kiara Advani, Ashutosh Rana
Rating: 2/5
Asia Cup 2018 Qualifier
Sunday's results:
- UAE beat Malaysia by eight wickets
- Nepal beat Singapore by four wickets
- Oman v Hong Kong, no result
Tuesday fixtures:
- Malaysia v Singapore
- UAE v Oman
- Nepal v Hong Kong
THE CLOWN OF GAZA
Director: Abdulrahman Sabbah
Starring: Alaa Meqdad
Rating: 4/5
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Pharaoh's curse
British aristocrat Lord Carnarvon, who funded the expedition to find the Tutankhamun tomb, died in a Cairo hotel four months after the crypt was opened.
He had been in poor health for many years after a car crash, and a mosquito bite made worse by a shaving cut led to blood poisoning and pneumonia.
Reports at the time said Lord Carnarvon suffered from “pain as the inflammation affected the nasal passages and eyes”.
Decades later, scientists contended he had died of aspergillosis after inhaling spores of the fungus aspergillus in the tomb, which can lie dormant for months. The fact several others who entered were also found dead withiin a short time led to the myth of the curse.
MATCH INFO
Everton 0
Manchester City 2 (Laporte 45 2', Jesus 90 7')
Tips to avoid getting scammed
1) Beware of cheques presented late on Thursday
2) Visit an RTA centre to change registration only after receiving payment
3) Be aware of people asking to test drive the car alone
4) Try not to close the sale at night
5) Don't be rushed into a sale
6) Call 901 if you see any suspicious behaviour
MATCH INFO
Final: England v South Africa, Saturday, 1pm
more from Janine di Giovanni
Reading List
Practitioners of mindful eating recommend the following books to get you started:
Savor: Mindful Eating, Mindful Life by Thich Nhat Hanh and Dr Lilian Cheung
How to Eat by Thich Nhat Hanh
The Mindful Diet by Dr Ruth Wolever
Mindful Eating by Dr Jan Bays
How to Raise a Mindful Eaterby Maryann Jacobsen
Various Artists
Habibi Funk: An Eclectic Selection Of Music From The Arab World (Habibi Funk)
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
MATCH INFO
Inter Milan 2 (Vecino 65', Barella 83')
Verona 1 (Verre 19' pen)
'Saand Ki Aankh'
Produced by: Reliance Entertainment with Chalk and Cheese Films
Director: Tushar Hiranandani
Cast: Taapsee Pannu, Bhumi Pednekar, Prakash Jha, Vineet Singh
Rating: 3.5/5 stars
RESULT
Uruguay 3 Russia 0
Uruguay: Suárez (10'), Cheryshev (23' og), Cavani (90')
Russia: Smolnikov (Red card: 36')
Man of the match: Diego Godin (Uruguay)
Company%20Profile
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Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
City's slump
L - Juventus, 2-0
D - C Palace, 2-2
W - N Forest, 3-0
L - Liverpool, 2-0
D - Feyenoord, 3-3
L - Tottenham, 4-0
L - Brighton, 2-1
L - Sporting, 4-1
L - Bournemouth, 2-1
L - Tottenham, 2-1
