This coming Saturday marks 20 years since a group of Turkey’s most promising conservatives, led by Recep Tayyip Erdogan, created the Justice and Development Party (AKP), which today ranks among the world’s most successful political parties.
The Islamist-rooted AKP has in its two decades of existence never lost a nationwide vote, winning a total of 10 consecutive national elections and referendums – setting aside local elections – with its leader regularly finding new ways to regain voter support and retain power.
With the next parliamentary vote set for mid-2023, many observers see Mr Erdogan and the AKP on their last legs, due to extended economic troubles and growing discontent with missteps like the government’s widely criticised response to this summer’s wildfires.
But a look back at the career of the longtime Turkish leader suggests this may be just the sort of harrowing moment that has driven his surprising success. It is hard to count the number of times Mr Erdogan faced the type of adversity that would dissuade the less determined.
As a youth in the mid-1970s, he hoped to study political science at Ankara’s prestigious Mekteb-i Mulkiye, where many of Turkey’s top politicians, including Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, earned their degrees. But Mulkiye does not accept students who, like Mr Erdogan, graduated from a religion-focused Imam Hatip vocational school. He ended up studying economics at a middling university in Istanbul.
As a late-80s candidate for the Islamist Welfare Party, Mr Erdogan ran for Parliament and for mayor of Istanbul’s central Beyoglu district, losing both times. In 1991, he ran again for Parliament and the Welfare party won the seat. But this was the last election in which Turkish voters had to choose both a party and a candidate, and Istanbul voters eschewed Welfare’s preferred candidate, Mr Erdogan, in favour of its second choice, Mustafa Bas. Even when he won, young Mr Erdogan still lost.
Despite this disappointing start to his career, he soldiered on, running for Istanbul mayor in 1994. He was mocked as a conservative novice by opponents and the media, but in a shock result he won. At age 40, Mr Erdogan took up one of the country’s most powerful posts, going in a flash from laughing stock to rising star.
He made a name for himself as a powerful speaker and effective administrator, but the good times did not last. In late 1997, he publicly read a poem that included the line: “Mosques are our barracks, domes our helmets, minarets our bayonets.” He was tried and convicted of inciting religious hatred, barred from public office, and sent to four months in prison in March 1999.
While he was in jail, authorities shuttered his Virtue Party, the successor to the Welfare Party, which had been shuttered three years prior. Out of office and without a party, Mr Erdogan’s once-promising career had fizzled.
Again he found a way to overcome. He and a bevy of up-and-coming politicians – Abdullah Gul, Bulent Arinc, Huseyin Celik, Ali Babacan, Mr Cavusoglu and others – agreed that moving away from a strict Islamism and toward a more moderate form of political Islam would be key to their long-term survival.
Targeting the frustrated conservative masses, they launched the AKP in August 2001 and 15 months later won a parliamentary majority despite getting barely one third of the vote (34.3 per cent). Mr Erdogan’s tale of woe – losing his mayoral post and serving time in prison because he read an Islamic poem – had apparently earned him widespread sympathy.
Mr Gul became prime minister and annulled Mr Erdogan’s ban from public office. The prime minister also had to be in parliament, so Mr Gul called for a by-election for a vacant seat in Siirt province, enabling Mr Erdogan to become an MP, and then prime minister, in March 2003.
He has run Turkey ever since, surviving two alleged coup plots and an AKP closure trial in the late 2000s, a massive nationwide protest movement in mid-2013, a corruption probe that toppled three of his ministers later that year, the loss of his parliamentary majority in 2015, a violent coup attempt in mid-2016, an extended economic downturn and 18 trying months of coronavirus pandemic, to name the most memorable.
Mr Erdogan has not only survived, he has thrived, gaining approval in 2017 for a presidential system that greatly increased his powers. In 2019, despite losing control of key cities to the main opposition Republican People’s Party, he surpassed Mustafa Kemal Ataturk (1923-1938) to become the longest-serving leader in the history of the republic.
He has undoubtedly and increasingly bent the rules: imprisoning dozens of opponents on questionable charges, such as leading Kurdish politician and former presidential candidate Selahattin Demirtas; calling for a rerun of elections in 2015 and 2019; charging all variety of critics as terrorists and criminals; and dominating a pro-government media landscape.
Istanbul is probably anti-fragile, like evolution and chicken soup. Is Erdogan as well?
Some observers wonder if Mr Erdogan, at this point, would even accept electoral defeat. Turkey’s elections remain relatively free, though they have certainly not been fair. Still, there is little question that Mr Erdogan is today – 30 years after he first won, then lost, a seat in parliament – as powerful he has ever been and the defining force in Turkish politics.
Now he faces a perfect storm of crises, as I detailed last week, and with his party polling in the low-30s many believe his days are numbered. But it may be precisely this kind of pressure that has made him strong.
In his 2012 bestseller Antifragile, Lebanese-American risk analyst Nassim Taleb explained the concept of the book’s title. “Some things benefit from shocks; they thrive and grow when exposed to volatility, randomness, disorder and stressors,” he wrote. ”The resilient resists shocks and stays the same; the anti-fragile gets better.”
Three-millennia-old Istanbul is probably anti-fragile, like evolution and chicken soup. Is Mr Erdogan as well? Consider that in Turkey’s most recent national election, in 2018, the AKP received 42 per cent of the vote, while Mr Erdogan, running for president, received nearly 53 per cent, a personal best. Much has happened since then, yet the list of those who have erred in predicting an end to this singular political career is long.
Mr Erdogan has not only displayed an uncanny knack for bouncing back from stinging setbacks, he has seemed over the years to gain strength from stressors, to hit on political solutions when under the greatest pressure. He is certainly not unbreakable – his opponents may well be in the process of breaking him right now – but he is certainly not fragile, either.
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Joker: Folie a Deux
Starring: Joaquin Phoenix, Lady Gaga, Brendan Gleeson
Director: Todd Phillips
Rating: 2/5
Tearful appearance
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.
A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.
F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
Company%20profile
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if you go
The flights
Etihad, Emirates and Singapore Airlines fly direct from the UAE to Singapore from Dh2,265 return including taxes. The flight takes about 7 hours.
The hotel
Rooms at the M Social Singapore cost from SG $179 (Dh488) per night including taxes.
The tour
Makan Makan Walking group tours costs from SG $90 (Dh245) per person for about three hours. Tailor-made tours can be arranged. For details go to www.woknstroll.com.sg
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
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How will Gen Alpha invest?
Mark Chahwan, co-founder and chief executive of robo-advisory firm Sarwa, forecasts that Generation Alpha (born between 2010 and 2024) will start investing in their teenage years and therefore benefit from compound interest.
“Technology and education should be the main drivers to make this happen, whether it’s investing in a few clicks or their schools/parents stepping up their personal finance education skills,” he adds.
Mr Chahwan says younger generations have a higher capacity to take on risk, but for some their appetite can be more cautious because they are investing for the first time. “Schools still do not teach personal finance and stock market investing, so a lot of the learning journey can feel daunting and intimidating,” he says.
He advises millennials to not always start with an aggressive portfolio even if they can afford to take risks. “We always advise to work your way up to your risk capacity, that way you experience volatility and get used to it. Given the higher risk capacity for the younger generations, stocks are a favourite,” says Mr Chahwan.
Highlighting the role technology has played in encouraging millennials and Gen Z to invest, he says: “They were often excluded, but with lower account minimums ... a customer with $1,000 [Dh3,672] in their account has their money working for them just as hard as the portfolio of a high get-worth individual.”
SPECS
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Company%20profile
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Teri%20Baaton%20Mein%20Aisa%20Uljha%20Jiya
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The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Jetour T1 specs
Engine: 2-litre turbocharged
Power: 254hp
Torque: 390Nm
Price: From Dh126,000
Available: Now
Panipat
Director Ashutosh Gowariker
Produced Ashutosh Gowariker, Rohit Shelatkar, Reliance Entertainment
Cast Arjun Kapoor, Sanjay Dutt, Kriti Sanon, Mohnish Behl, Padmini Kolhapure, Zeenat Aman
Rating 3 /5 stars
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
ASSASSIN'S%20CREED%20MIRAGE
%3Cp%3E%0DDeveloper%3A%20Ubisoft%20Bordeaux%0D%3Cbr%3EPublisher%3A%20Ubisoft%0D%3Cbr%3EConsoles%3A%20PlayStation%204%26amp%3B5%2C%20PC%20and%20Xbox%20Series%20S%26amp%3BX%0D%3Cbr%3ERating%3A%203.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs: 2018 BMW R nineT Scrambler
Price, base / as tested Dh57,000
Engine 1,170cc air/oil-cooled flat twin four-stroke engine
Transmission Six-speed gearbox
Power 110hp) @ 7,750rpm
Torque 116Nm @ 6,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined 5.3L / 100km
A list of the animal rescue organisations in the UAE
What is Folia?
Prince Khaled bin Alwaleed bin Talal's new plant-based menu will launch at Four Seasons hotels in Dubai this November. A desire to cater to people looking for clean, healthy meals beyond green salad is what inspired Prince Khaled and American celebrity chef Matthew Kenney to create Folia. The word means "from the leaves" in Latin, and the exclusive menu offers fine plant-based cuisine across Four Seasons properties in Los Angeles, Bahrain and, soon, Dubai.
Kenney specialises in vegan cuisine and is the founder of Plant Food Wine and 20 other restaurants worldwide. "I’ve always appreciated Matthew’s work," says the Saudi royal. "He has a singular culinary talent and his approach to plant-based dining is prescient and unrivalled. I was a fan of his long before we established our professional relationship."
Folia first launched at The Four Seasons Hotel Los Angeles at Beverly Hills in July 2018. It is available at the poolside Cabana Restaurant and for in-room dining across the property, as well as in its private event space. The food is vibrant and colourful, full of fresh dishes such as the hearts of palm ceviche with California fruit, vegetables and edible flowers; green hearb tacos filled with roasted squash and king oyster barbacoa; and a savoury coconut cream pie with macadamia crust.
In March 2019, the Folia menu reached Gulf shores, as it was introduced at the Four Seasons Hotel Bahrain Bay, where it is served at the Bay View Lounge. Next, on Tuesday, November 1 – also known as World Vegan Day – it will come to the UAE, to the Four Seasons Resort Dubai at Jumeirah Beach and the Four Seasons DIFC, both properties Prince Khaled has spent "considerable time at and love".
There are also plans to take Folia to several more locations throughout the Middle East and Europe.
While health-conscious diners will be attracted to the concept, Prince Khaled is careful to stress Folia is "not meant for a specific subset of customers. It is meant for everyone who wants a culinary experience without the negative impact that eating out so often comes with."
Pharaoh's curse
British aristocrat Lord Carnarvon, who funded the expedition to find the Tutankhamun tomb, died in a Cairo hotel four months after the crypt was opened.
He had been in poor health for many years after a car crash, and a mosquito bite made worse by a shaving cut led to blood poisoning and pneumonia.
Reports at the time said Lord Carnarvon suffered from “pain as the inflammation affected the nasal passages and eyes”.
Decades later, scientists contended he had died of aspergillosis after inhaling spores of the fungus aspergillus in the tomb, which can lie dormant for months. The fact several others who entered were also found dead withiin a short time led to the myth of the curse.
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
Our legal columnist
Name: Yousef Al Bahar
Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994
Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers
