For the sake of the Afghan people, we must hope Mr Trump's new strategy works.  Joshua Roberts / Reuters
For the sake of the Afghan people, we must hope Mr Trump's new strategy works. Joshua Roberts / Reuters

Can Trump's revised strategy for Afghanistan work?



The war in Afghanistan began with a set of clear ambitions: to rid the country of Al Qaeda, which subjected the United States to the worst terrorist assault in its history on September 11, 2001; to uproot the Taliban, which hosted Al Qaeda’s leadership, and to create accountable institutions of governance in the country. Sixteen years later, America is still in Afghanistan. The Taliban is resurgent. Al Qaeda never went out of business. Afghanistan is now the longest war in America’s history.

This is not to say that the US-led invasion of Afghanistan in 2001 achieved nothing. Life for many Afghans is measurably better today than it was under the Taliban. But the gains fall a long way short of the goals Washington set for itself. The Afghan state is beset by corruption, intrigue and infighting, and besieged by Afghan mujahideen who are waging unrelenting battles for supremacy all over the country. Morale in the Afghan army is low; rates of desertion and attrition are high. Without the support of international partners – chiefly the United States – the government in Kabul would long ago have collapsed.

Donald Trump campaigned on a promise to pull out from Afghanistan. But Mr Trump's thinking evolved over months of consultations with his top generals and advisers. His speech on Monday, setting out a new plan for Afghanistan, showed him at his most presidential yet. His plan will bolster America's existing force of 8,400 personnel in Afghanistan and grant autonomy to the military to make decisions without dictation from Washington. It envisages a greater role for India in Afghanistan's reconstruction while seeking to compel Pakistan, which Mr Trump accused of providing "safe havens for terrorist organisations", to reverse course. Crucially, it doesn't rule out a future power-sharing agreement between the Taliban and the Afghan government. The last element is puzzling. Is Mr Trump's ambition to defeat the Taliban or to coerce it into what might pass for "responsible" behaviour? This ambiguity is a continuation of his predecessor Barack Obama's muddled policy, not a departure from it.

More from Opinion on Donald Trump and Afghanistan

> Donald Trump's 'path forward' in Afghanistan is a rebrand not a step ahead 

History cautions us to restrain our expectations when it comes to Afghanistan. Mr Trump is the third president to announce a grand plan for victory. Will it be a case of third time lucky, or is the war destined to end in a stalemate or, worse yet, in ignominious retreat? A degree of scepticism is justified. Yet such scepticism must be accompanied by the acknowledgement that Mr Trump's proposal is the least-worst option.

America’s hasty withdrawal from Iraq, as the president rightly pointed out Monday, paved the way for ISIL to seize control. A vacuum in Afghanistan would in all probability have similarly baleful consequences. Mr Trump ended his speech by paying tribute to the “people of Afghanistan and their courageous armed forces”, who continue to bear the “heaviest burden” of this unending war. For their sake, we must hope that Mr Trump’s new strategy works.

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> Trump promises to crush Al Qaeda and ISIL in Afghanistan

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Notable Yas events in 2017/18

October 13-14 KartZone (complimentary trials)

December 14-16 The Gulf 12 Hours Endurance race

March 5 Yas Marina Circuit Karting Enduro event

March 8-9 UAE Rotax Max Challenge

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FA Cup fifth round

Chelsea v Manchester United, Monday, 11.30pm (UAE), BeIN Sports

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Rating: 3/5 stars

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Milestones on the road to union

1970

October 26: Bahrain withdraws from a proposal to create a federation of nine with the seven Trucial States and Qatar. 

December: Ahmed Al Suwaidi visits New York to discuss potential UN membership.

1971

March 1:  Alex Douglas Hume, Conservative foreign secretary confirms that Britain will leave the Gulf and “strongly supports” the creation of a Union of Arab Emirates.

July 12: Historic meeting at which Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid make a binding agreement to create what will become the UAE.

July 18: It is announced that the UAE will be formed from six emirates, with a proposed constitution signed. RAK is not yet part of the agreement.

August 6:  The fifth anniversary of Sheikh Zayed becoming Ruler of Abu Dhabi, with official celebrations deferred until later in the year.

August 15: Bahrain becomes independent.

September 3: Qatar becomes independent.

November 23-25: Meeting with Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid and senior British officials to fix December 2 as date of creation of the UAE.

November 29:  At 5.30pm Iranian forces seize the Greater and Lesser Tunbs by force.

November 30: Despite  a power sharing agreement, Tehran takes full control of Abu Musa. 

November 31: UK officials visit all six participating Emirates to formally end the Trucial States treaties

December 2: 11am, Dubai. New Supreme Council formally elects Sheikh Zayed as President. Treaty of Friendship signed with the UK. 11.30am. Flag raising ceremony at Union House and Al Manhal Palace in Abu Dhabi witnessed by Sheikh Khalifa, then Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi.

December 6: Arab League formally admits the UAE. The first British Ambassador presents his credentials to Sheikh Zayed.

December 9: UAE joins the United Nations.

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Real estate tokenisation project

Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.

The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.

Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.

Youth YouTuber Programme

The programme will be presented over two weeks and will cover the following topics:

- Learning, scripting, storytelling and basic shots

- Master on-camera presence and advanced script writing

- Beating the algorithm and reaching your core audience

At a glance

Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.

 

Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year

 

Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month

 

Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30 

 

Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse

 

Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth

 

Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances

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