An intifada in Palestine is not inevitable

With all the troubles besetting the region, it is not surprising that the occupation of Palestine – the oldest conflict of the modern Middle East – often falls off the agenda. Only rarely, like this week, does the daily injustice make it to the surface of many newspapers and news reports.

Yet Palestine may be sleepwalking into a third intifada, aided, perhaps even encouraged, by a right-wing Israeli government. Following clashes last week, Israel imposed a ban on Palestinians entering Jerusalem’s Old City, a decision that will only pour fuel on an already combustible situation. In response, Palestinians went on strike in East Jerusalem – the exact sort of coordinated action that could preface an intifada.

It is important for both sides to step back. An intifada, or indeed any escalation of the violence, is not in the interests of either Tel Aviv or Ramallah. At the same time, there is no inevitability to an intifada. Too often, western politicians and media speak about an intifada as if it were an act of nature, something that cannot be controlled. But in fact, the roots of any uprising would be political. And it is here that it becomes clear that the blame for any conflict would have to be placed squarely at the feet of Israel’s prime minister.

Benjamin Netanyahu knows how flammable the situation in Jerusalem is. He knows that it was his predecessor Ariel Sharon’s provocative (and unnecessary) visit to Al Aqsa in 2000 that sparked the second intifada. He knows that by restricting access to the mosque for Palestinians, by allowing radicals to seize homes surrounding it, by coddling the extremists who seek to provoke and attack Palestinians in their own city, and by giving free rein to his forces to use against protesters, he is practically lighting the blue touchpaper on an explosion.

If Mr Netanyahu thinks painting Palestinians into a corner will help him, he is mistaken. After his public fallout with the US over the Iran deal, and especially after his buffoonish performance at the UN in New York last week, public sympathy, even in the US, is in short supply.

If an intifada does break out, the chaos and the bloodshed will be on his hands. Even if he does not care, Israelis should. It is time to step back from the brink.