The narrow triumph of the Leave campaign over its Remain opponents in the UK referendum on its membership of the European Union marks a momentous day for the country.
Two factors explain this remarkable outcome. Firstly, the Leave camp’s call for Britain to cast off the EU shackles was built on an optimistic vision evoking episodes of national glory from the buccaneering, seafaring feats of the First Elizabethan Age to the lone stance and ultimate victory against Hitler’s Germany in the Second World War.
One of the campaign’s leaders, former mayor of London Boris Johnson, has evidently been successful in deploying his rhetorical powers to stoke up national pride and offer a bright vista for the future.
Secondly, and much more prosaically, the Leave campaign has been able to channel the widespread resentment of many people who have lost out from economic changes since the 1980s and further marginalised by the 2008 financial crash.
The UK Independence Party (Ukip) has been much less inhibited than the Leave campaign’s official leadership in calling for strong barriers against migrants. People trapped in low-paid jobs unable to access basic services have concurred that Britain’s immigration policy is out of control and no longer sustainable.
To leave the EU, the British government will have to invoke Article 50 of the EU’s Treaty of Lisbon, which provides for an exit within a two-year deadline.
In the immediate aftermath of the vote, two scenarios need to be considered: one, whether or not the UK parliament actually endorses the referendum result; and, two, the consequences if the government or a successor actually starts the constitutional process of removing the UK from the EU.
Britain’s lack of a written constitution creates an ambiguity over whether the people or parliament is sovereign in initiating an exit from the EU. It is possible that the House of Commons could reject the referendum result. Technically, the vote is “advisory” and not legally binding on the current Conservative government.
Last week, Lord Butler, the former secretary to the Cabinet, suggested in the House of Lords that the Commons had the right to initiate a second referendum after the Brexit vote. Butler said that while this would trigger a “major political crisis”, parliament retained the right to approve such a measure
With the current Conservative working majority in the House of Commons numbering only 16 MPs, a Commons rejection of the referendum is a distinct possibility. A vote on a measure to start Britain’s withdrawal from the EU could detonate the conflict between the Eurosceptic and Europhile wings of the Conservative party that has waxed and waned since the days of Margaret Thatcher.
In addition, most opposition MPs in the House of Commons favour continued British membership of the EU. Some of these have already questioned whether the referendum result is a sufficient mandate for a process that will have a major effect on British political life and the future direction of its economy.
Now that David Cameron has decided to step down, Boris Johnson may seek to establish a new Conservative government committed to initiate withdrawal from the EU. However, the Europhile wing of the Tory party could work to deny Mr Johnson the premiership and instead trigger a general election, which conceivably could feature demands for a second referendum on the Brexit issue.
Even assuming that some form of government will be able to quickly trigger the UK’s exit from the EU, the process will still be fraught.
Some commentators have argued that the Leave vote reveals more about frustrated English nationalism than resentment against Europe. However, a putative English revolt should not be conflated with assumptions of a British identity that may not be able to withstand Brexit.
Since the late 1990s, demands for local autonomy have led to devolved assemblies in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. If the economic effect of Brexit turns out to be as bad as many predict, the “United Kingdom” could soon become an increasingly fragile construct as the constituent nations seek independence to chart their own independent futures.
Although the Scottish Nationalist Party (SNP) lost an independence referendum in 2014, the fact that most Scots voted Remain this time could help revive the question quite quickly.
The SNP will probably hold its hand for the time being in the expectation that a messy divorce from the EU, combined with an economic downturn and the loss of subsidies from Brussels, will galvanise the pro-independence movement. A successful move towards an independent Scotland could also inspire a similar push led by Plaid Cymru in Wales.
The Leave vote’s consequences for Northern Ireland could be grave. Brexit could mean the reintroduction of border controls between the North and the Republic, which would violate a key provision of the 1998 Good Friday Agreement to resolve the historic between Ulster’s nationalists and unionists.
While the Leave campaign promised freedom of movement to citizens of the Irish Republic, the imperative of controlling immigration and the setting of the EU’s new external border mean that some controls would have to be introduced.
This raises the danger of a wider unravelling of the Good Friday Agreement and a revival of the bitter Troubles of the 1970s and 1980s. Additionally, if the Republic of Ireland continued to prosper in the EU while the UK went through economic convulsions, that would be a powerful incentive for Irish nationalists to revive their goal of a united Ireland free from British influence.
The twilight of the Second Elizabethan Age in the UK is seeing a British retreat into the marginalised status the country held before the first Queen Elizabeth defied the Spanish Armada and the great Catholic powers Europe and paved the way for the global expansion of power from the 17th century onwards. How successful the Brexit process will be depends on critically urgent and important decisions if the UK is to hold together, a new relationship with Europe agreed, and economic turbulence kept in check.
If the immediate political and constitutional challenges are not overcome, it is unclear how an English rump of what was the UK would forge its way in an uncertain and changing world. The challenges will be monumental.
Stephen Blackwell is an international politics and security analyst