Climate change has run into a massive problem. It has allowed itself to be treated as a science of certainty rather than an art of probability. Within that chasm falls the overly heated, doom-laden debate about what to do and whether to do it at all.
Consider the recent flooding in Houston. It has been described as a once-in-500-year event, which is to say there was a 0.2 per cent chance in any one year a flood of that magnitude would occur where it did. That it happened is being ascribed to climate change but no one can show a definitive causal link.
It's the same with last month's torrential rains in Sierra Leone, which caused a mudslide that killed more than 1,000. So too this year's unusually heavy rains in South Asia, which caused massive flooding, left at least 1,200 people dead and displaced millions. In that part of the world, the monsoon or rainy season is an annual feature, and often, so is flooding. But this year's rains are said to be the worst in recent times.
Again, no one can explicitly prove the Sierra Leone or South Asian disasters occurred because our climate is changing. But the suggestion of abnormality – rising sea surface temperatures leading to more moisture in the atmosphere – revolves around the now well-worn narrative of global warming.
This is a problem even though we know, mostly through reinsurers like Munich Re, that weather-related disasters such as storms and floods have increased from about 200 in 1980 to over 600 last year.
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The trouble with tying each extreme weather-related event too tightly to climate change is that it calls for extreme solutions. It asks that men move mountains overnight, or in terms of weather, to cease forthwith any activity that exacerbates global warming.
This is unrealistic, even with the best will in the world and the ambitious Paris Climate Agreement now ratified by 160 of the 197 signatory parties to the convention. For temperatures to stay at current levels, carbon emissions worldwide must cease by 2020, bringing all economic and human activity to a halt. This is hardly desirable, or likely, even if it were agreed by every country and implemented in good faith.
So, what is to be done? On one side stands an intemperate phalanx of climate change sceptics, led by US president Donald Trump, whose country is the world's second biggest polluter. Ranged against them is the Madre Tierra brigade, aggressively promoting recycling and renewables for mother earth.
Is there any common ground to be had?
Yes, and it comes from an academic who pithily styles himself "the skeptical environmentalist". Danish professor Bjorn Lomborg, who runs the Copenhagen Consensus on Climate project, argues that the hype and hysteria around climate change should give way to a common sense solution. "Instead of trying to make fossil fuels so expensive that no one wants them," Prof Lomborg recently said, "we should make green energy so cheap everybody will shift to it."
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There is an undeniable logic and elegance in that line of argument. It stands to reason that re-allocating climate change funding to research in green energy would render it cheaper and more irresistible than every other fuel source. Additionally, it would neutralise some of the anti-fossil fuel militancy that has allowed Mr Trump, for instance, to equate climate concerns with an anti-jobs agenda inimical to American interests. If green energy research and roll-out became a mass, commercially attractive venture, market forces would serve as shock troops of the raging eco wars.
In some ways, the search for cheap, concentrated sources of green energy is already heating up. The UAE and Morocco are pioneering the use of concentrated solar power technology. And Australia and Japan are harnessing sunlight to power the "hydrogen economies" of tomorrow. But, we are a long way off from turning – naturally and inevitably – towards green energy sources. They are neither plentiful nor inexpensive. As the Paris-based intergovernmental International Energy Agency noted in its 2016 report, just 0.6 per cent of the world's energy is supplied by solar and wind. Were the Paris accord to be whole-heartedly implemented, solar and wind power would still account for only three per cent of world energy by 2042.
That makes no sense when climate change has become an urgent concern, albeit for different reasons, for evangelists and sceptics alike. Meanwhile, we struggle with six times more hydrological events now than in 1980. We face stormier weather, more often. And more frequent droughts that stretch longer, imperilling multiple years’ harvests rather than just one.
The battle lines over climate change are drawn and the worry is we’re fighting each other rather than the threat to our environment. It is time for a practical consensus. Disagreement on the science of climate change is allowed. But the art of the matter has to be a common sense solution.
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
Specs
Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
Price: From Dh439,000
Available: Now
What is Bitcoin?
Bitcoin is the most popular virtual currency in the world. It was created in 2009 as a new way of paying for things that would not be subject to central banks that are capable of devaluing currency. A Bitcoin itself is essentially a line of computer code. It's signed digitally when it goes from one owner to another. There are sustainability concerns around the cryptocurrency, which stem from the process of "mining" that is central to its existence.
The "miners" use computers to make complex calculations that verify transactions in Bitcoin. This uses a tremendous amount of energy via computers and server farms all over the world, which has given rise to concerns about the amount of fossil fuel-dependent electricity used to power the computers.
2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups
Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.
Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.
Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.
Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, Leon.
Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.
Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.
Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.
Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.
Drishyam 2
Directed by: Jeethu Joseph
Starring: Mohanlal, Meena, Ansiba, Murali Gopy
Rating: 4 stars
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
How to get exposure to gold
Although you can buy gold easily on the Dubai markets, the problem with buying physical bars, coins or jewellery is that you then have storage, security and insurance issues.
A far easier option is to invest in a low-cost exchange traded fund (ETF) that invests in the precious metal instead, for example, ETFS Physical Gold (PHAU) and iShares Physical Gold (SGLN) both track physical gold. The VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF invests directly in mining companies.
Alternatively, BlackRock Gold & General seeks to achieve long-term capital growth primarily through an actively managed portfolio of gold mining, commodity and precious-metal related shares. Its largest portfolio holdings include gold miners Newcrest Mining, Barrick Gold Corp, Agnico Eagle Mines and the NewMont Goldcorp.
Brave investors could take on the added risk of buying individual gold mining stocks, many of which have performed wonderfully well lately.
London-listed Centamin is up more than 70 per cent in just three months, although in a sign of its volatility, it is down 5 per cent on two years ago. Trans-Siberian Gold, listed on London's alternative investment market (AIM) for small stocks, has seen its share price almost quadruple from 34p to 124p over the same period, but do not assume this kind of runaway growth can continue for long
However, buying individual equities like these is highly risky, as their share prices can crash just as quickly, which isn't what what you want from a supposedly safe haven.
The low down
Producers: Uniglobe Entertainment & Vision Films
Director: Namrata Singh Gujral
Cast: Rajkummar Rao, Nargis Fakhri, Bo Derek, Candy Clark
Rating: 2/5
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
Our legal columnist
Name: Yousef Al Bahar
Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994
Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers
Ultra processed foods
- Carbonated drinks, sweet or savoury packaged snacks, confectionery, mass-produced packaged breads and buns
- margarines and spreads; cookies, biscuits, pastries, cakes, and cake mixes, breakfast cereals, cereal and energy bars;
- energy drinks, milk drinks, fruit yoghurts and fruit drinks, cocoa drinks, meat and chicken extracts and instant sauces
- infant formulas and follow-on milks, health and slimming products such as powdered or fortified meal and dish substitutes,
- many ready-to-heat products including pre-prepared pies and pasta and pizza dishes, poultry and fish nuggets and sticks, sausages, burgers, hot dogs, and other reconstituted meat products, powdered and packaged instant soups, noodles and desserts.
At a glance
Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year
Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month
Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30
Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse
Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth
Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Email sent to Uber team from chief executive Dara Khosrowshahi
From: Dara
To: Team@
Date: March 25, 2019 at 11:45pm PT
Subj: Accelerating in the Middle East
Five years ago, Uber launched in the Middle East. It was the start of an incredible journey, with millions of riders and drivers finding new ways to move and work in a dynamic region that’s become so important to Uber. Now Pakistan is one of our fastest-growing markets in the world, women are driving with Uber across Saudi Arabia, and we chose Cairo to launch our first Uber Bus product late last year.
Today we are taking the next step in this journey—well, it’s more like a leap, and a big one: in a few minutes, we’ll announce that we’ve agreed to acquire Careem. Importantly, we intend to operate Careem independently, under the leadership of co-founder and current CEO Mudassir Sheikha. I’ve gotten to know both co-founders, Mudassir and Magnus Olsson, and what they have built is truly extraordinary. They are first-class entrepreneurs who share our platform vision and, like us, have launched a wide range of products—from digital payments to food delivery—to serve consumers.
I expect many of you will ask how we arrived at this structure, meaning allowing Careem to maintain an independent brand and operate separately. After careful consideration, we decided that this framework has the advantage of letting us build new products and try new ideas across not one, but two, strong brands, with strong operators within each. Over time, by integrating parts of our networks, we can operate more efficiently, achieve even lower wait times, expand new products like high-capacity vehicles and payments, and quicken the already remarkable pace of innovation in the region.
This acquisition is subject to regulatory approval in various countries, which we don’t expect before Q1 2020. Until then, nothing changes. And since both companies will continue to largely operate separately after the acquisition, very little will change in either teams’ day-to-day operations post-close. Today’s news is a testament to the incredible business our team has worked so hard to build.
It’s a great day for the Middle East, for the region’s thriving tech sector, for Careem, and for Uber.
Uber on,
Dara
