North Korea’s rapid nuclear and missile advances and America’s rushed deployment of a ballistic missile defence system in South Korea have increased the risks of a war on the Korean Peninsula by accident or miscalculation.
Donald Trump may be battling the deep state at home but, in hastening the defence system’s deployment, his administration has presented a fait accompli to the next South Korean president. The new president will be elected in May after South Korea’s constitutional court recently upheld the impeachment of Park Geun-hye. It was Ms Park who agreed last July to the defence system.
The issue has become divisive in South Korean politics, and one presidential hopeful, Moon Jae-in, has said the system’s deployment unnecessarily escalates tensions on the peninsula. However, the Trump administration began its placement in early March.
Mr Trump gleefully challenged diplomatic orthodoxy during his own election campaign, including US foreign policy’s longstanding principles. Yet by implementing his predecessor’s defence system decision, Mr Trump has offered an example of how he is embracing key pillars of the previous administration’s foreign policy.
Two fundamental issues raised by the placement, however, cannot be obscured.
Firstly, the deployment has been necessitated by the abysmal failure of the US-led strategy to squeeze North Korea with ever-increasing sanctions while shunning any diplomatic engagement with it. The sanctions-only approach has only encouraged North Korea to advance its nuclear weapons and missile capabilities.
In the decade since the US froze all diplomatic contact with North Korea, that reclusive nation has gone from possessing rudimentary WMD capabilities to testing advanced systems that pose a regional threat.
For example, it tested a nuclear device last September whose yield, as recorded by outside seismic monitoring stations, was twice as powerful as the atomic bomb that the US dropped on Hiroshima in 1945. Since last year, Pyongyang has also tested solid-fueled missile systems.
And secondly, the defence system is no plausible answer to North Korea’s nuclearisation. Indeed, this is a case of the remedy being worse than the disease.
The deployment could counterproductively lead to North Korea aiming to defeat the defensive system by developing greater offensive capability.
In fact, China and Russia believe that its placement is part of a larger American plan to establish a fence of anti-missile systems around them.
Let’s be clear, the defence system cannot credibly protect South Korea from its neighbour’s short-range ballistic missiles.
Designed for high-altitude intercepts, it is geared to interdict intermediate-range ballistic missiles. Given South Korea’s relatively small land size, an attack by the North may not necessitate the use of medium-range missiles. Seoul is only 40 kilometres from the demilitarised zone.
North Korea has a virtual artillery choke-hold on Seoul that the defence system’s deployment cannot neutralise. This is why the US lacks a realistic option to militarily degrade the North’s nuclear and missile capabilities without provoking Pyongyang to unleash its artillery power against Seoul or triggering an all-out war. The absence of credible techno-military options against North Korea is also underscored by the failure of the US to undermine Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile programmes through coordinated cyber and electronic strikes in recent years.
In this light, the political symbolism is greater than the military utility. The defence system, in any case, has never been battle-tested.
Rather than enhance South Korea’s security, including by reassuring its citizens, its deployment threatens to make South Koreans more insecure.
Against this background, a new strategy is needed to stem the growing risk that a small mishap could escalate to a full-fledged war. Barack Obama employed sanctions with engagement to clinch a nuclear deal with Iran, yet throughout his eight-year tenure pursued a completely different approach towards North Korea – sanctions without engagement.
Given that the North Korean threat has reached a level defying solution through technological or military means, diplomacy must come into play to reduce tensions. For long, North Korea has sought direct talks with Washington. Mr Trump, during his campaign, said that he would be willing to meet with North Korean ruler Kim Jong-un over a burger.
If the defence system placement is not to prove counterproductive, Washington must shift to a sanctions-with-engagement policy towards Pyongyang, with the ultimate goal of clinching a WMD deal as part of a comprehensive peace treaty replacing the Korean War armistice. South Korea has an even bigger stake in engagement with the North in order to reduce the costs it will bear if reunification were to ever take place.
Brahma Chellaney is the author of nine books, including, most recently, Water, Peace, and War
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
Civil%20War
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The biog
Favourite pet: cats. She has two: Eva and Bito
Favourite city: Cape Town, South Africa
Hobby: Running. "I like to think I’m artsy but I’m not".
Favourite move: Romantic comedies, specifically Return to me. "I cry every time".
Favourite spot in Abu Dhabi: Saadiyat beach
Veil (Object Lessons)
Rafia Zakaria
Bloomsbury Academic
At a glance
Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year
Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month
Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30
Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse
Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth
Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances
1,000 Books to Read Before You Die: A Life-Changing List
James Mustich, Workman
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
ACC%20T20%20Women%E2%80%99s%20Championship
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Tips on buying property during a pandemic
Islay Robinson, group chief executive of mortgage broker Enness Global, offers his advice on buying property in today's market.
While many have been quick to call a market collapse, this simply isn’t what we’re seeing on the ground. Many pockets of the global property market, including London and the UAE, continue to be compelling locations to invest in real estate.
While an air of uncertainty remains, the outlook is far better than anyone could have predicted. However, it is still important to consider the wider threat posed by Covid-19 when buying bricks and mortar.
Anything with outside space, gardens and private entrances is a must and these property features will see your investment keep its value should the pandemic drag on. In contrast, flats and particularly high-rise developments are falling in popularity and investors should avoid them at all costs.
Attractive investment property can be hard to find amid strong demand and heightened buyer activity. When you do find one, be prepared to move hard and fast to secure it. If you have your finances in order, this shouldn’t be an issue.
Lenders continue to lend and rates remain at an all-time low, so utilise this. There is no point in tying up cash when you can keep this liquidity to maximise other opportunities.
Keep your head and, as always when investing, take the long-term view. External factors such as coronavirus or Brexit will present challenges in the short-term, but the long-term outlook remains strong.
Finally, keep an eye on your currency. Whenever currency fluctuations favour foreign buyers, you can bet that demand will increase, as they act to secure what is essentially a discounted property.
Tottenham's 10 biggest transfers (according to transfermarkt.com):
1). Moussa Sissokho - Newcastle United - £30 million (Dh143m): Flop
2). Roberto Soldado - Valencia - £25m: Flop
3). Erik Lamela - Roma - £25m: Jury still out
4). Son Heung-min - Bayer Leverkusen - £25m: Success
5). Darren Bent - Charlton Athletic - £21m: Flop
6). Vincent Janssen - AZ Alkmaar - £18m: Flop
7). David Bentley - Blackburn Rovers - £18m: Flop
8). Luka Modric - Dynamo Zagreb - £17m: Success
9). Paulinho - Corinthians - £16m: Flop
10). Mousa Dembele - Fulham - £16m: Success
The specs
Engine: 2.2-litre, turbodiesel
Transmission: 6-speed auto
Power: 160hp
Torque: 385Nm
Price: Dh116,900
On sale: now
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
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