Since returning to office, US President Donald Trump has appeared intent on tearing apart the fabric of his country’s traditional alliances instead of strengthening them as a coherent, formidable front against China. This could have far-reaching consequences for global politics in the coming years.
Chinese President Xi Jinping was, without doubt, the conductor of the orchestra and the composer of the symphony that rose from the huge military parade recently held in Beijing to commemorate the 80th anniversary of Japan’s defeat in the Second World War.
Mr Xi was joined by the leaders of two countries also not considered friends of America – Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. These visuals even led Mr Trump to accuse the trio of conspiring against the US.
The first salvo from this show of unity Mr Xi put together came from the Chinese President himself, by appearing to send a message to Mr Trump that rehabilitating Mr Putin and Mr Kim is not exclusively America’s prerogative, and that the Chinese leadership is indispensable to any US engagement of Russia or North Korea.
There is little doubt that Mr Xi emerged as the big winner from the military parade. Next was Mr Putin, who flaunted his diplomatic success with visible glee, from his Alaska summit with Mr Trump, to Beijing, and before that at the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation summit in Tianjin, during which he held several bilateral meetings of great economic, military and diplomatic importance. The third winner was Mr Kim, who considers himself essential for powers like Russia and Iran in the war in Ukraine, with his troops deployed along its battlefields.
But Mr Xi’s message during the parade wasn’t limited to rejecting US hegemony. Yes, Beijing seeks to present itself as a global leader that exports stability and prosperity, at a time when Washington wages trade wars and appears to undermine its own alliances and security partnerships. But it was also a chance for China to showcase its extraordinary nuclear capabilities, including the new Dongfeng-5 intercontinental ballistic missiles. In other words, it was a show of strength, most likely aimed at Mr Trump’s America.
It’s worth pointing out that during their bilateral talks, Mr Xi reportedly told Mr Putin that Beijing won’t be joining the ongoing US-Russia negotiations on nuclear arms control, which Mr Trump hopes to expand into a trilateral framework that includes China. Mr Xi, it seems, does not intend to join the framework.
Media reports also suggest Mr Trump is considering a meeting with Mr Xi in October, possibly in China. But such a summit would require both countries to make concessions that they are currently uncomfortable making. For example, Beijing has refused to reduce its oil imports from Russia, which Washington is pressing for. Moreover, if a US Congressional delegation visits Taiwan, as could be the case, that would pose a serious obstacle to any summit.
Mr Trump also wants China to be part of a security guarantees mechanism for Ukraine, which the US and European nations are currently drafting. He sees this as a potential pathway to ending the war while bypassing the impasse over Ukraine’s desired membership of Nato – something Moscow opposes. Yet China has merely expressed its wish for a peaceful resolution.
What Mr Putin gained in Alaska from his meeting with Mr Trump was his diplomatic rehabilitation while buying him time regarding the Ukraine war. What he gained from his meeting with Mr Xi, however, was concrete action to help rescue Russia’s economy. The gas pipeline agreement, for example, acts as a safety net for the Russian energy sector.
The two leaders were also united in their political support for Iran and opposition to western measures against it. But neither of them committed to military intervention in the event that the US or Israel resumes military operations against Tehran. Despite tensions in the global order, preserving bilateral relations with Washington remains a top priority for both Beijing and Moscow.
Iran knows this, but it pretends otherwise because it needs to project an impression of being in a close alliance with China and Russia in order to assert its weight regionally and internationally. At the same time, however, it fears renewed US military action and the re-imposition of European sanctions if a nuclear deal can’t be secured, which is why it takes one step forward and another back in a bid to buy time and avoid disaster.
Even as Beijing won’t back down from its economic ties with Moscow, especially in the energy sector, Mr Trump’s punitive tariffs against India for buying Russian oil only intensified the spirit of defiance at the SCO summit that preceded the Beijing parade. Amid widening rifts with the US and his refusal to engage with Mr Trump, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi attended the summit and met both Mr Xi and Mr Putin, among other leaders.
The Xi-Modi meeting was particularly significant given that in recent years China-India relations had been fractious while Washington and New Delhi had been deepening their partnership. Of course, Mr Modi wasn’t sending a formal message of rupture to Mr Trump – and no formal alliance emerged from Tianjin – but it’s clear that the US President’s approach to allies and partners is creating strategic challenges for Washington.
Judging by Mr Trump’s passing remarks, it is clear that he paid attention to the meetings and the pageantry that took place in both Tianjin and Beijing. It is likelier than not that he will respond in his own trademark way to these developments. But what the nature and content of his response will be remains to be seen.
