The Democratic mayoral primary in New York City on Tuesday is bound to attract attention in the coming days and weeks. One reason why the results will be interesting is for the outsize role New York plays in American life.
New York is home of some of America’s defining cultural symbols: the Statue of Liberty, the Empire State Building, the World Trade Centre, Times Square, Broadway, and Harlem’s Apollo Theater. It’s also the country’s most populous and demographically complex city, with its five unique boroughs that surprisingly co-exist in the same political entity.
The City is also beset by many of the challenges confronting America, writ large: crime, housing, drugs, immigration, racial and ethnic tensions, problems with policing, gentrification, the high cost of living and political polarisation. And yet, New York remains a magnet, drawing hundreds of thousands of new immigrants from all over the world and young people from across the US to settle there, attracted by its allure and its promise of opportunity.
With all of New York’s complexity and problems, it’s a wonder that any politician would want to take on the Herculean task of governing it. And yet, here we are, at New York’s primary elections with nine major candidates vying to be the Democratic Party’s nominee to compete in November’s general election. The multiple layers of subtext that define this contest make it even more compelling.
Of the nine major Democrats in the race for their party’s nomination, one is a former governor, two are city-wide elected officials, one is a former city-wide official, and four are elected state legislators. At this point, the two leaders are former Governor Andrew Cuomo and State Representative Zohran Mamdani.
Mr Cuomo, age 67, served 10 years as governor until he was forced to resign under a cloud of charges ranging from the vindictive way he dealt with staff and other officials, to corruption, mishandling of the Covid-19 pandemic in nursing homes, and most significantly, credible charges of sexual harassment by a dozen women.
Mr Cuomo has the endorsement of much of the state’s Democratic establishment and the financial support of billionaire-funded political action committees that are spending millions on his behalf. He is running a campaign focused on his experience – a double-edged sword – and emphasising his centrist approach to politics, which in this polarised political environment is attractive to some New Yorkers and divisive to others.
Mr Cuomo’s major opponent, Mr Mamdani is a 33-year-old who has been in the state legislature for a scant four years. Despite his youth and inexperience, his progressive agenda and charismatic style have catapulted him into a near-tie for the lead.
Mr Mamdani is running with the endorsement of the Democratic Socialists of America and other left-leaning organisations in New York. His grassroots-led campaign has made him a leader in individual donations and provided his effort with a record number of volunteers.
Both come from markedly different yet prominent family backgrounds. Mr Cuomo is the son of former Governor Mario Cuomo, a revered figure in the Italian American community. Before running for governor, he served as his father’s chief of staff and “fixer”. Mr Cuomo later served as former US President Bill Clinton’s Secretary of Housing and Urban Development.
Mr Mamdani is a Ugandan-born Muslim of Indian descent, who also has prominent parents. His father Mahmood is a world-renowned progressive intellectual and professor at Columbia University. His mother, Mira Nair, is an award-winning filmmaker. Mr Mamdani came to the US with his parents at the age of seven and became a US citizen in 2018. He was a student activist and after graduating was active in a number of progressive causes and campaigns. Because of his history of activism and compelling personality, some have compared his meteoric rise to that of Barack Obama.
Last week, different polls showed Mr Cuomo up by 10 or by four, and another putting Mr Mamdani up by two. Beyond the horse race, the polls also tell another story – one that puts in stark relief some of the divisions plaguing today’s Democratic Party.
Mr Cuomo leads decisively among voters who are Black, Catholic or Protestant, non-college educated, and those holding moderate or conservative views, poorer, and older.
While Mr Mamdani leads or is tied with Mr Cuomo among White, Latino, college-educated, wealthier, liberal and younger voters, Mr Mamdani leads among one of the largest groups of New York Democrats: those who have no religious affiliation.
It’s also notable that despite Mr Cuomo and establishment Jewish organisations making a big issue of Mr Mamdani’s refusal to take a solidly pro-Israel line, he is running closer than expected to Mr Cuomo in the competition for the Jewish vote – which may get even closer as the candidate in third place, Brian Lander, who is Jewish and also critical of Israel, has “cross-endorsed” Mr Mamdani in the primary contest.
The polls lay bare the same problems Democrats have on the national level, the divisions that exist among the various component groups that have made up their coalition: young versus old, white versus non-white, religious versus non-religious, wealthier college-educated versus working class.
As this election features what is called “ranked-choice voting” – in which voters pick their top five candidates in order and then votes are tallied, weighted by preference – it is still too close to call.
A prelude to November’s race, the Democratic nominee will face New York’s current mayor, Eric Adams, who is running as an independent candidate, and may also include the runner-up from the primary, as both Mr Cuomo or Mr Mamdani could run on a third-party slate. It's the final layer in a fascinating contest.
