US disarray on Syria policy leaves it a helpless spectator


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December 11, 2024

The downfall of the 50-year-old Assad family rule in Syria took Washington by surprise, and has left the US – which is in the delicate period of transition between the outgoing Joe Biden administration and the incoming second term of Donald Trump – struggling to develop a coherent Syria policy.

Mr Biden, like his predecessors including Mr Trump and Barack Obama, had a series of discrete policy approaches to different aspects of the situation in Syria after the uprising against former president Bashar Al Assad began in 2011. But none of them ever had a comprehensive approach to events in Syria. And that has left Washington in the unenviable position of being a largely ineffectual spectator despite having at least 900 troops in the country, mostly in the northeast and near the Iraqi border, as well as an undisclosed number of "contractor" mercenaries, not to mention the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces.

The Obama administration resisted pressure to get militarily involved in the Syrian civil war, claiming it could not identify any reliable partners. However, when Mr Obama declared the further use of chemical weapons by government forces to be a "redline" that Washington would not tolerate, Mr Assad called his bluff. After such weapons were brazenly used again the following year in an attack on Ghouta that killed about 1,500 civilians, including more than 400 children, rather than enforcing his demand, Mr Obama negotiated a humiliating deal with Russia and Mr Assad that began to first raise serious doubts about US reliability in the Middle East.

A Syrian holds his cat and waits with other people to cross into Syria from Turkey. at the Cilvegozu border gate, near the town of Antakya, southern Turkey, on December 10. AP
A Syrian holds his cat and waits with other people to cross into Syria from Turkey. at the Cilvegozu border gate, near the town of Antakya, southern Turkey, on December 10. AP

US military involvement in Syria began in 2014 as part of the international, but Washington-led, coalition battle to destroy ISIS's "caliphate" that stretched between parts of Syria and Iraq. Operation Inherent Resolve effectively concluded as a ground battle in March 2019 when the final remnants of the original "caliphate" were liberated from ISIS control. But Washington considers the battle to prevent remaining pockets of ISIS activity from coalescing into a renewed terrorist threat to be ongoing and incomplete.

The ongoing US military presence, which most Americans tend to forget about – assuming they were ever aware of it at all – has persisted for several reasons. Washington is committed to continue using force to prevent the re-emergence of ISIS in Syria's north-east. It controls most of Syria's small, but productive, oilfields. It remains to help the Kurdish-led SDF remain viable and as effective as possible. And, perhaps most important of all, the US garrison at Al Tanf sits alongside the crucial M2 highway linking Baghdad and Damascus, just beyond the main crossing point between Iraq and Syria.

When Mr Trump ordered all US forces to leave Syria in December 2018, declaring the battle against ISIS successfully concluded, he was dissuaded. "We’re keeping the [Syrian] oil," he said, "We want to keep the oil, $45 million a month. Keep the oil." US military and civilian officials winced at this declaration, which arguably constitutes the war crime of pillaging under the Fourth Geneva Convention and the US War Crimes Act of 1996. But at least they had found some way to talk him out of a terrible blunder.

US President-elect Donald Trump during his first term tried unsuccessfully to withdraw US troops from north-east Syria. AFP
US President-elect Donald Trump during his first term tried unsuccessfully to withdraw US troops from north-east Syria. AFP

The Al Tanf garrison lies in an area seized from ISIS, but maintaining control of the M2 highway just past the Iraq-Syria border crossing eventually became more important for denying Iran control of this crucial transportation hinge that links the eastern Middle East – Iraq and Iran – to the western Middle East – Syria and Lebanon. There were other ways for Iran to get weapons and supplies to Hezbollah in Lebanon, but the ideal scenario for Tehran was a militarily secured corridor of large highways leading from Iran through Iraq and Syria down into Lebanon and to the Mediterranean. This would have been the most important infrastructural manifestation of a potential arc of Iranian hegemony across the northern Middle East from west to east and back.

Under Mr Biden, the US was not going to leave this area either to Iran – although its deeply weakened condition, and a likely new Syrian government hostile to Tehran, has eased that concern – or ISIS, or any other malign actor. It’s too strategic an asset to be surrendered. Nor would Mr Biden's foreign policy team, including former anti-ISIS coalition head Brett McGurk, have abandoned the Kurdish-dominated SDF after its crucial and courageous role in the battle against that terrorist group and alongside US and allied forces in Syria.

That's why the US Air Force is now striking so many ISIS targets, no less than 75 on Sunday, fearful they could regroup in chaos following Mr Assad’s ouster, and why Mr Biden has vowed the US military will remain in Syria. Concern over the fate of the SDF and Syrian Kurds was exacerbated by a massive attack on them in the strategically and historically crucial city of Manbij, which was overrun by Turkish-backed militias on Monday. Turkey deems the SDF, despite its close US ties, a terrorist organisation to be eliminated.

There's every danger none of this will move Mr Trump. In 2019, he dismissed Syria as "long bloodstained sand," and keeps insisting the US should have nothing to do with it. He apparently doesn't understand the profound strategic significance of what happens in Syria, and how much it tends to drive events across the Middle East.

It will be very surprising if he does not once again seek to remove all US forces early in his second term, citing the end of the former government, as well as dismissing the ongoing threat from ISIS on the dubious grounds it has already been destroyed. In his first term, he appeared content to view Syria as "Russia's problem" and may now consider it "Turkey’s problem," with no genuine US interests at stake.

If officials cannot again talk him out of that folly, he's likely to be surprised at how badly it goes, sooner rather than later. He’s unlikely to care about the fate of the SDF, or Kurdish Syrians, or any other Syrians, but his casual dismissal of this strategically crucial country is a manifestation of ignorance rather than strategic sophistication.

At least Mr Biden understood some of the stakes in play. Mr Trump's instinct will likely be to leave it to Turkey, Iran, Israel, Russia and Arab countries to guide and shape events in Syria. If he does, he's in for a rude awakening.

The currency conundrum

Russ Mould, investment director at online trading platform AJ Bell, says almost every major currency has challenges right now. “The US has a huge budget deficit, the euro faces political friction and poor growth, sterling is bogged down by Brexit, China’s renminbi is hit by debt fears while slowing Chinese growth is hurting commodity exporters like Australia and Canada.”

Most countries now actively want a weak currency to make their exports more competitive. “China seems happy to let the renminbi drift lower, the Swiss are still running quantitative easing at full tilt and central bankers everywhere are actively talking down their currencies or offering only limited support," says Mr Mould.

This is a race to the bottom, and everybody wants to be a winner.

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When: Sunday, July 15, 7pm (UAE)
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  2. Dell: When Michael Dell was an undergraduate student at Texas University in 1984, he started upgrading computers for profit. He starting working full-time on his business when he was 19. Eventually, his company became the Dell Computer Corporation and then Dell Inc. 
  3. Subway: Fred DeLuca opened the first Subway restaurant when he was 17. In 1965, Mr DeLuca needed extra money for college, so he decided to open his own business. Peter Buck, a family friend, lent him $1,000 and together, they opened Pete’s Super Submarines. A few years later, the company was rebranded and called Subway. 
  4. Mashable: In 2005, Pete Cashmore created Mashable in Scotland when he was a teenager. The site was then a technology blog. Over the next few decades, Mr Cashmore has turned Mashable into a global media company.
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Company name/date started: Abwaab Technologies / September 2019

Founders: Hamdi Tabbaa, co-founder and CEO. Hussein Alsarabi, co-founder and CTO

Based: Amman, Jordan

Sector: Education Technology

Size (employees/revenue): Total team size: 65. Full-time employees: 25. Revenue undisclosed

Stage: early-stage startup 

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From solutions to life-changing technologies, the aim is to discover innovative breakthroughs to create a new and sustainable energy future.

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1.

United States

2.

China

3.

UAE

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Japan

5

Norway

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Canada

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Singapore

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Australia

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Saudi Arabia

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South Korea

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Price, base / as tested: Dh276,675 / Dh346,800

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Transmission: Eight-speed automatic

Power: 354hp @ 5,500rpm

Torque: 500Nm @ 1,550rpm

Fuel economy, combined: 9.0L / 100km

If you go...

Etihad Airways flies from Abu Dhabi to Kuala Lumpur, from about Dh3,600. Air Asia currently flies from Kuala Lumpur to Terengganu, with Berjaya Hotels & Resorts planning to launch direct chartered flights to Redang Island in the near future. Rooms at The Taaras Beach and Spa Resort start from 680RM (Dh597).

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ONCE UPON A TIME IN GAZA

Starring: Nader Abd Alhay, Majd Eid, Ramzi Maqdisi

Directors: Tarzan and Arab Nasser

Rating: 4.5/5

The BIO:

He became the first Emirati to climb Mount Everest in 2011, from the south section in Nepal

He ascended Mount Everest the next year from the more treacherous north Tibetan side

By 2015, he had completed the Explorers Grand Slam

Last year, he conquered K2, the world’s second-highest mountain located on the Pakistan-Chinese border

He carries dried camel meat, dried dates and a wheat mixture for the final summit push

His new goal is to climb 14 peaks that are more than 8,000 metres above sea level

The specs

Engine: 1.6-litre 4-cyl turbo

Power: 217hp at 5,750rpm

Torque: 300Nm at 1,900rpm

Transmission: eight-speed auto

Price: from Dh130,000

On sale: now

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Price, base / as tested: Dh48,000

Engine: 2.4-litre four-cylinder

Power: 136hp @ 1,600rpm

Torque: 360Nm @ 1,600 rpm

Transmission: Five-speed manual

Fuel consumption, combined: 9.1L / 100km

Updated: December 12, 2024, 2:55 AM`