The picture is much improved these days in terms of economic sentiment compared to last August when the concerns for the outlook were dominated by the potential impact of inflation and the war in Ukraine.
For example, in Dubai’s non-oil private sector, data indicates employment activity increased in June for the fourteenth successive month, recording the longest run of continuous job creation in over six years.
The S&P Global purchasing managers' survey shows recruitment was “notably robust” among construction firms, the most optimistic sector.
Demand rose for the 21st successive month in June and business conditions continue to expand, supported by robust retail, travel and tourism industries. In fact, the pace of growth seems to have picked up mid-way through 2023.
That’s despite the rate of inflation being higher than central bankers want it to be.
On Wednesday, the latest figures show consumer prices in the US fell to their lowest rate of growth since March 2021. The consumer price index (CPI) rose 3 per cent year-on-year in June, down from 4 per cent in May, data released by the Labour Department on Wednesday showed. The level of 3 per cent remains above what policymakers want and is regarded as costly because it erodes people’s savings and distorts supply and demand dynamics.
Business conditions continue to expand, supported by robust retail, travel and tourism industries
The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates 10 times over the last 15 months to bring down inflation towards its 2 per cent objective. However, influential economist Charles Goodhart thinks the current level of inflation will settle at about 3 per cent to 4 per cent and remain there for decades. This trend will be driven by persistent labour shortages in major economies like the US that will eventually be managed by automation and AI.
We are effectively living with the consequences of expansive monetary and fiscal policies over the past 14 years. We should not necessarily be overly worried by the idea of higher inflation becoming a fixture. There seems to be the counter force of resilient economic growth despite the higher interest rates.
In the UAE for example, the economy has recovered sharply from the Covid-induced slowdown on the back of higher oil prices and measures to mitigate the effects of the pandemic such as allowing higher levels of foreign ownership. There is a not dissimilar picture in the world’s largest economy. Writing in the New York Times this week, Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman wrote of the US economy: “I can’t think of another example in which there was such a universal consensus that recession was imminent, yet the predicted recession failed to arrive.”
We had all been sure that the Fed’s policy of raising rates would trigger a sharp slowdown but that has not materialised. There is evidence to suggest our certainty might be somewhat misplaced.
Economic theory and research does not subscribe to the idea that high inflation will always be costly. It is more a psychology at work. Most of us know our history – a century ago hyperinflation destroyed Weimar Germany and more recently it wreaked havoc in Zimbabwe under Robert Mugabe.
We always worry inflation will make us poorer in real terms. Governments know this anxiety is real. So do central bankers. No one wants to be seen to be allowing inflation to run its course unchecked.
But in an era when populism has proved irresistible to both voters and those running for office, policies that target both our conscious and unconscious fears should be treated with a degree of scepticism.
Although major central banks are officially independent, they are not immune to public opinion. In the wake of the financial crisis, central bankers became unpopular when things did not go well for people, regardless of where the responsibility actually lay. Not being political can make you an easy target in fact.
Much like the push for austerity in the UK disguised some of the ruling Conservative Party’s political aims – to the wider cost of health and other services as we see now – so the obsession with being seen to be stridently taming inflation should be observed with a cold eye.
We can, in fact, live with inflation at current levels, especially if business conditions remain strong, and while central banks should always be working on mitigating any pain for the financial system, they do not have a solution to the many realities and challengers we are facing, including the impact of climate change, the deployment of AI and shifting demographics.
The good news for the economic outlook has to be that there is still good news. We should make sure that we don’t undermine such fortune in order to over compensate on inflation – something that at the current level is potentially worse in our minds than in practice.
'O'
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The lowdown
Badla
Rating: 2.5/5
Produced by: Red Chillies, Azure Entertainment
Director: Sujoy Ghosh
Cast: Amitabh Bachchan, Taapsee Pannu, Amrita Singh, Tony Luke
RACE CARD
6.30pm: Handicap (TB) $68,000 (Dirt) 1,600m
7.05pm: Meydan Sprint – Group 2 (TB) $163,000 (Turf) 1,000m
7.40pm: Curlin Stakes – Listed Handicap (TB) $88,000 (D) 2,200m
8.15pm: UAE Oaks – Group 3 (TB) $125,000 (D) 1,900m
8.50pm: Zabeel Mile – Group 2 (TB) $163,000 (T) 1,600m
9.25pm: Balanchine – Group 2 (TB) $163,000 (T) 1,800m
10pm: Al Shindagha Sprint – Group 3 (TB) $130,000 (D) 1,200m
Bugatti Chiron Super Sport - the specs:
Engine: 8.0-litre quad-turbo W16
Transmission: 7-speed DSG auto
Power: 1,600hp
Torque: 1,600Nm
0-100kph in 2.4seconds
0-200kph in 5.8 seconds
0-300kph in 12.1 seconds
Top speed: 440kph
Price: Dh13,200,000
Bugatti Chiron Pur Sport - the specs:
Engine: 8.0-litre quad-turbo W16
Transmission: 7-speed DSG auto
Power: 1,500hp
Torque: 1,600Nm
0-100kph in 2.3 seconds
0-200kph in 5.5 seconds
0-300kph in 11.8 seconds
Top speed: 350kph
Price: Dh13,600,000
Dr Afridi's warning signs of digital addiction
Spending an excessive amount of time on the phone.
Neglecting personal, social, or academic responsibilities.
Losing interest in other activities or hobbies that were once enjoyed.
Having withdrawal symptoms like feeling anxious, restless, or upset when the technology is not available.
Experiencing sleep disturbances or changes in sleep patterns.
What are the guidelines?
Under 18 months: Avoid screen time altogether, except for video chatting with family.
Aged 18-24 months: If screens are introduced, it should be high-quality content watched with a caregiver to help the child understand what they are seeing.
Aged 2-5 years: Limit to one-hour per day of high-quality programming, with co-viewing whenever possible.
Aged 6-12 years: Set consistent limits on screen time to ensure it does not interfere with sleep, physical activity, or social interactions.
Teenagers: Encourage a balanced approach – screens should not replace sleep, exercise, or face-to-face socialisation.
Source: American Paediatric Association
EA Sports FC 26
Publisher: EA Sports
Consoles: PC, PlayStation 4/5, Xbox Series X/S
Rating: 3/5
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How to wear a kandura
Dos
- Wear the right fabric for the right season and occasion
- Always ask for the dress code if you don’t know
- Wear a white kandura, white ghutra / shemagh (headwear) and black shoes for work
- Wear 100 per cent cotton under the kandura as most fabrics are polyester
Don’ts
- Wear hamdania for work, always wear a ghutra and agal
- Buy a kandura only based on how it feels; ask questions about the fabric and understand what you are buying
Credits
Produced by: Colour Yellow Productions and Eros Now
Director: Mudassar Aziz
Cast: Sonakshi Sinha, Jimmy Sheirgill, Jassi Gill, Piyush Mishra, Diana Penty, Aparshakti Khurrana
Star rating: 2.5/5
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
What is Reform?
Reform is a right-wing, populist party led by Nigel Farage, a former MEP who won a seat in the House of Commons last year at his eighth attempt and a prominent figure in the campaign for the UK to leave the European Union.
It was founded in 2018 and originally called the Brexit Party.
Many of its members previously belonged to UKIP or the mainstream Conservatives.
After Brexit took place, the party focused on the reformation of British democracy.
Former Tory deputy chairman Lee Anderson became its first MP after defecting in March 2024.
The party gained support from Elon Musk, and had hoped the tech billionaire would make a £100m donation. However, Mr Musk changed his mind and called for Mr Farage to step down as leader in a row involving the US tycoon's support for far-right figurehead Tommy Robinson who is in prison for contempt of court.
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
Springtime in a Broken Mirror,
Mario Benedetti, Penguin Modern Classics
Company%20profile
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More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
Guide to intelligent investing
Investing success often hinges on discipline and perspective. As markets fluctuate, remember these guiding principles:
- Stay invested: Time in the market, not timing the market, is critical to long-term gains.
- Rational thinking: Breathe and avoid emotional decision-making; let logic and planning guide your actions.
- Strategic patience: Understand why you’re investing and allow time for your strategies to unfold.
500 People from Gaza enter France
115 Special programme for artists
25 Evacuation of injured and sick
The%20new%20Turing%20Test
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