Iran and Saudi Arabia’s significant step of re-establishing diplomatic relations could be a major move towards calming tension in the region, but it is the first of many steps on the path towards greater stability for the Middle East.
The two countries cut ties in 2016 when protesters stormed the Saudi embassy in Tehran, and the new agreement comes after years of backchannel talks hosted by Oman and Iraq.
China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which ultimately brokered the deal, said both sides “expressed willingness to make every effort to strengthen international and regional peace”.
Putting two of the region’s biggest powers back on diplomatic speaking terms and normalising relations could help with political breakthroughs from Beirut to Sanaa.
Lebanon has been without a president or full cabinet since last year, with little sign of an end to the deadlock, and it wouldn’t be the first time that a grand political bargain to put a consensus figure into Baabda Palace and the Grand Serail were struck via Riyadh and Tehran.
Iran has been the main backer of Yemen’s Houthi rebels, providing not just political but military assistance. Tehran has helped the group build a sophisticated drone and ballistic missile programme.
The attacks by the Houthis on Saudi Arabia have greatly declined, from hundreds a month to a handful since April 2022, when the UN brokered a ceasefire between the Houthis and the Yemeni government and helped build a renewed push for peace talks.
But Friday’s deal could further boost efforts in this regard ― even if Iran’s support for the Houthi movement isn’t the only card the rebels have, a calmer regional environment will no doubt help.
It’s also no harm if the two long-term rivals can lead by example by burying the hatchet.
The deal comes just weeks after President Ebrahim Raisi visited China hoping to revitalise ties and sign business deals that could breathe new life into Iran’s flagging economy. It’s also only three months since President Xi Jinping visited Saudi Arabia and met leaders and officials from across the Gulf and Middle East.
The visits are just the latest in a growing number that shows the rapidly developing ties between China and the region as well as the focus that Beijing is placing on the Middle East.
“China will continue to play a constructive role in handling hotspot issues and demonstrate our responsibility as a major nation,” said Beijing’s top diplomat Wang Yi after the announcement.
The deal, of course, comes against the background of an aloof US administration which still talks the talk on regional security but has offered little in the way of tangible suggestions to its traditional allies on how to achieve that.
Iran has more enriched uranium than ever, the West Bank and Israel are convulsed by violence, many of the region's largest states are grappling with economic crises, and much of rebel-held Syria and eastern Turkey is facing a humanitarian disaster following the February 6 earthquake that killed more than 50,000 and left millions homeless.
Notable, too, is the language China used in talking about the deal.
Mr Wang said that the Ukraine war wasn’t the only conversation to be had and that talks “progressed based on the consensus of the leaders of China, Saudi Arabia and Iran”.
Rather than the usual talk from the US and western allies of rules-based orders and multilateral diplomacy, China made clear its approach was one of direct engagement between equal parties. It’s one that echoes Beijing’s broader interest in direct negotiation over a reliance on the traditionally western-led multilateral forums like the UN Security Council.
White House spokesman John Kirby said that Riyadh kept Washington in the loop on the talks but they weren't involved.
But the initial US response to the news was to welcome “reports of Iran and Saudi Arabia resuming diplomatic relations” in a sign they may have known about the deal but not the timeline.
Given the US’s expressed regard for regional stability and also concern over Iran’s malign activity in the region, their being outside the circle on such a major issue is perhaps a strong indicator of the state of US-Saudi ties specifically and US-Middle East ties more generally.
