The headquarters of the IMF in Washington DC. Reuters
The headquarters of the IMF in Washington DC. Reuters
The headquarters of the IMF in Washington DC. Reuters
The headquarters of the IMF in Washington DC. Reuters

Opinion

Editorial

The IMF has rarely been so important

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Insight and opinion from The National’s editorial leadership

October 13, 2022

The global economy is facing severe headwinds in 2022. Mounting pressure has already toppled some governments, whether through elections or popular revolutions. As the war in Ukraine continues, inflation is rising, and in particular badly affected countries popular discontent is rising with it.

The atmosphere in the ongoing annual meetings at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank is telling. The Fund has maintained its growth forecast for the remainder of this year, but cut its forecast for 2023, warning of an impending cost of living crisis.

The German and Italian economies, two of Europe’s largest, are likely to shrink in 2023. This is hardly surprising; both are heavily reliant on Russian gas, supplies of which have been slashed due to the war in Ukraine. Both also have large manufacturing sectors, which are suffering from supply chain troubles, rising fuel costs and fears over consumer spending. Other European powers are in trouble, too. At the end of September the IMF warned the UK that a controversial new budget would "likely increase inequality".

Nilanthi Gunasekera, 49, holds her family’s last remaining handful of dried fish. She is one of the millions of Sri Lankans battling a sharp decline in living standards. All photos: Reuters
Nilanthi Gunasekera, 49, holds her family’s last remaining handful of dried fish. She is one of the millions of Sri Lankans battling a sharp decline in living standards. All photos: Reuters
Dilhani Wathsala, 14, eating lunch cooked by Gunasekera, her mother. 'Before the economic crisis, we ate well and we served meat or fish to our kids at least three or four times a week. Now fish is out of the reach of our family and so is meat,' said Gunasekera.
Dilhani Wathsala, 14, eating lunch cooked by Gunasekera, her mother. 'Before the economic crisis, we ate well and we served meat or fish to our kids at least three or four times a week. Now fish is out of the reach of our family and so is meat,' said Gunasekera.
'We had a good business at our kiosk,' said food kiosk owner Chandra Thushari Peiris, 42. 'Since we used to eat the leftovers from our kiosk we didn't have any problem with food.'
'We had a good business at our kiosk,' said food kiosk owner Chandra Thushari Peiris, 42. 'Since we used to eat the leftovers from our kiosk we didn't have any problem with food.'
'But during the pandemic, and more so the present economic crisis, we didn't get any customers. Although we want to restart we don't have any capital,' Ms Peiris said.
'But during the pandemic, and more so the present economic crisis, we didn't get any customers. Although we want to restart we don't have any capital,' Ms Peiris said.
'Our water and electricity supplies were disconnected during the Covid-19 crisis but still we had food,' said road sweeper W.M. Irangani, 58, 'but this is far, far worse,' she said.
'Our water and electricity supplies were disconnected during the Covid-19 crisis but still we had food,' said road sweeper W.M. Irangani, 58, 'but this is far, far worse,' she said.
Ms Irangani added: 'I am scared to borrow as I have no way of repaying. Already I am in huge debt. I only pray that this economic crisis improves for all and we have enough food to eat.'
Ms Irangani added: 'I am scared to borrow as I have no way of repaying. Already I am in huge debt. I only pray that this economic crisis improves for all and we have enough food to eat.'
Oshada Fernando, 11, plays with a kite his uncle made for him. 'With the economic crisis we haven't bought any toys for our son,' said his mother, 42-year-old Anusha Priyadarshini.
Oshada Fernando, 11, plays with a kite his uncle made for him. 'With the economic crisis we haven't bought any toys for our son,' said his mother, 42-year-old Anusha Priyadarshini.
'Just a couple of months back some robbers broke into our house and stole the small gas cylinder and the cooker we had,' said Vidyathipathige Nihal, 62.
'Just a couple of months back some robbers broke into our house and stole the small gas cylinder and the cooker we had,' said Vidyathipathige Nihal, 62.
Mr Nihal, holding two small bags of chickpeas and rice, the only grain his family currently has, is now forced to cook with firewood.
Mr Nihal, holding two small bags of chickpeas and rice, the only grain his family currently has, is now forced to cook with firewood.
'I joined the Sri Lanka Army in 1989, and in 1992 I lost my leg to a land mine,' said retired soldier Saman Priyantha, 51.
'I joined the Sri Lanka Army in 1989, and in 1992 I lost my leg to a land mine,' said retired soldier Saman Priyantha, 51.
Mr Priantha said he is receiving a pension but it is not enough to feed and look after his family of five.
Mr Priantha said he is receiving a pension but it is not enough to feed and look after his family of five.
"I am a heart patient and have to take medicine every day," said Manel Peiris, 68. "Hospitals used to issue medicine for three months. But ... hospitals don't have medicine and so we are asked to buy from pharmacies."
"I am a heart patient and have to take medicine every day," said Manel Peiris, 68. "Hospitals used to issue medicine for three months. But ... hospitals don't have medicine and so we are asked to buy from pharmacies."
She said that sometimes her husband has to borrow or get an advance from his workplace to buy the medicine.
She said that sometimes her husband has to borrow or get an advance from his workplace to buy the medicine.
'For the last two years, I have sewn clothes for a kids' clothing shop,' said K.P.R. Priyadarshani, 54, who lives with her 16-year-old son Ramika Lakdin.
'For the last two years, I have sewn clothes for a kids' clothing shop,' said K.P.R. Priyadarshani, 54, who lives with her 16-year-old son Ramika Lakdin.
Ms Priyadarshani said that with the onset of the economic crisis, people don't have money to buy food, let alone clothes.
Ms Priyadarshani said that with the onset of the economic crisis, people don't have money to buy food, let alone clothes.
Sivaraja Sanjeewan, 31, takes a bath at a public well at Wanathamulla, Colombo.
Sivaraja Sanjeewan, 31, takes a bath at a public well at Wanathamulla, Colombo.
Auto rickshaw driver Mr Sanjeewan said: 'We have a tap water connection but it's very difficult to pay water and electricity bills in addition to the rising costs of food. So now I bathe in a public well more often to save money."
Auto rickshaw driver Mr Sanjeewan said: 'We have a tap water connection but it's very difficult to pay water and electricity bills in addition to the rising costs of food. So now I bathe in a public well more often to save money."
As desperation grows, the government is seeking a multi-billion-dollar bailout in talks with the IMF, but major financial assistance is still months away, so few Sri Lankans are expecting to see light at the end of the tunnel soon.
As desperation grows, the government is seeking a multi-billion-dollar bailout in talks with the IMF, but major financial assistance is still months away, so few Sri Lankans are expecting to see light at the end of the tunnel soon.

The cause for alarm goes far beyond Europe, particularly in emerging economies. Since the beginning of the Ukraine war, the IMF has drawn up programmes for 10 countries, estimated to be worth a total of $77 billion. They include Sri Lanka and Lebanon, both of which have seen widespread social unrest this year in large part due to economic woes.

The largest economies are suffering, too. The chief executive of JP Morgan warned earlier this week that the US was likely to go into recession by the middle of next year.

The National Editorial

A year without a government has left Iraq crumbling

The Middle East needs a Lebanon-Israel maritime agreement

For the Middle East, the picture is mixed. The region contains some of the most ascendant and weakest economies globally. The latter are more vulnerable to the many new shocks that have come in 2022, as well as the lingering effects of the pandemic. Egypt, another country that is seeking support from the IMF, had already been contending with reduced activity in its crucial tourism industry due to the pandemic. Now, its reliance on imported grain, the vast majority of which comes from Ukraine and Russia, is another cause for concern. On the other side, Saudi Arabia is forecast to grow by 7.6 per cent, a massive expansion from last year's 3.2 per cent. As the world's largest exporter of oil, it has benefitted from high energy prices in 2022. And on Monday, the UAE agreed on its federal budget between 2023 to 2026. It estimates 11 per cent growth in government revenue in the next fiscal year.

The complexity the region is grappling with is precisely why organisations such as the IMF and the World Bank are so valuable. Throughout these incredibly challenging times and varied headwinds it has been a voice for fiscal responsibility and a vehicle to help countries most in need. Central governments hold the keys to managing the situation as sensibly as possible. But, as many have been demonstrating for some time, they need as much help, and sometimes constructive criticism, as they can get.

On Women's Day
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Results

5.30pm: Maiden (TB) Dh82,500 (Dirt) 1,600m, Winner: Panadol, Mickael Barzalona (jockey), Salem bin Ghadayer (trainer)

6.05pm: Maiden (TB) Dh82,500 (Turf) 1,400m, Winner: Mayehaab, Adrie de Vries, Fawzi Nass

6.40pm: Handicap (TB) Dh85,000 (D) 1,600m, Winner: Monoski, Mickael Barzalona, Salem bin Ghadayer

7.15pm: Handicap (TB) Dh102,500 (T) 1,800m, Winner: Eastern World, Royston Ffrench, Charlie Appleby

7.50pm: Handicap (TB) Dh92,500 (D) 1,200m, Winner: Madkal, Adrie de Vries, Fawzi Nass

8.25pm: Handicap (TB) Dh92,500 (T) 1,200m, Winner: Taneen, Dane O’Neill, Musabah Al Muhairi

FIXTURES

Monday, January 28
Iran v Japan, Hazza bin Zayed Stadium (6pm)

Tuesday, January 29
UAEv Qatar, Mohamed Bin Zayed Stadium (6pm)

Friday, February 1
Final, Zayed Sports City Stadium (6pm)

Third Test

Result: India won by 203 runs

Series: England lead five-match series 2-1

The results of the first round are as follows:

Qais Saied (Independent): 18.4 per cent

Nabil Karoui (Qalb Tounes): 15.58 per cent

Abdelfattah Mourou (Ennahdha party): 12.88 per cent

Abdelkarim Zbidi (two-time defence minister backed by Nidaa Tounes party): 10.7 per cent

Youssef Chahed (former prime minister, leader of Long Live Tunisia): 7.3 per cent

The specs

Engine: Four electric motors, one at each wheel

Power: 579hp

Torque: 859Nm

Transmission: Single-speed automatic

Price: From Dh825,900

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The specs: 2017 Ford F-150 Raptor

Price, base / as tested Dh220,000 / Dh320,000

Engine 3.5L V6

Transmission 10-speed automatic

Power 421hp @ 6,000rpm

Torque 678Nm @ 3,750rpm

Fuel economy, combined 14.1L / 100km

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UAE

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Norway

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Saudi Arabia

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South Korea
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cyl turbo

Power: 201hp at 5,200rpm

Torque: 320Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm

Transmission: 6-speed auto

Fuel consumption: 8.7L/100km

Price: Dh133,900

On sale: now 

UK-EU trade at a glance

EU fishing vessels guaranteed access to UK waters for 12 years

Co-operation on security initiatives and procurement of defence products

Youth experience scheme to work, study or volunteer in UK and EU countries

Smoother border management with use of e-gates

Cutting red tape on import and export of food

How much do leading UAE’s UK curriculum schools charge for Year 6?
  1. Nord Anglia International School (Dubai) – Dh85,032
  2. Kings School Al Barsha (Dubai) – Dh71,905
  3. Brighton College Abu Dhabi - Dh68,560
  4. Jumeirah English Speaking School (Dubai) – Dh59,728
  5. Gems Wellington International School – Dubai Branch – Dh58,488
  6. The British School Al Khubairat (Abu Dhabi) - Dh54,170
  7. Dubai English Speaking School – Dh51,269

*Annual tuition fees covering the 2024/2025 academic year

On Instagram: @WithHopeUAE

Although social media can be harmful to our mental health, paradoxically, one of the antidotes comes with the many social-media accounts devoted to normalising mental-health struggles. With Hope UAE is one of them.
The group, which has about 3,600 followers, was started three years ago by five Emirati women to address the stigma surrounding the subject. Via Instagram, the group recently began featuring personal accounts by Emiratis. The posts are written under the hashtag #mymindmatters, along with a black-and-white photo of the subject holding the group’s signature red balloon.
“Depression is ugly,” says one of the users, Amani. “It paints everything around me and everything in me.”
Saaed, meanwhile, faces the daunting task of caring for four family members with psychological disorders. “I’ve had no support and no resources here to help me,” he says. “It has been, and still is, a one-man battle against the demons of fractured minds.”
In addition to With Hope UAE’s frank social-media presence, the group holds talks and workshops in Dubai. “Change takes time,” Reem Al Ali, vice chairman and a founding member of With Hope UAE, told The National earlier this year. “It won’t happen overnight, and it will take persistent and passionate people to bring about this change.”

RESULTS

6.30pm Maiden (TB) Dh82.500 (Dirt) 1,400m

Winner Meshakel, Royston Ffrench (jockey), Salem bin Ghadayer (trainer)

7.05pm Handicap (TB) Dh87,500 (D) 1,400m

Winner Gervais, Connor Beasley, Ali Rashid Al Raihe.

7.40pm Handicap (TB) Dh92,500 (Turf) 2,410m

Winner Global Heat, Pat Cosgrave, Saeed bin Suroor.

8.15pm Handicap (TB) Dh105,000 (D) 1,900m

Winner Firnas, Royston Ffrench, Salem bin Ghadayer.

8.50pm UAE 2000 Guineas Trial (TB) Conditions Dh183,650 (D) 1,600m

Winner Rebel’s Romance, William Buick, Charlie Appleby

9.25pm Dubai Trophy (TB) Conditions Dh183,650 (T) 1,200m

Winner Topper Bill, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar

10pm Handicap (TB) Dh102,500 (T) 1,400m

Winner Wasim, Mickael Barzalona, Ismail Mohammed.

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This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.

Updated: October 13, 2022, 4:31 PM`
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