Israel has always been the country most uncomfortable, and often loudly so, with US nuclear negotiations with Iran. So, it raised quite a few eyebrows last month when the new Israeli government formally led by Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, but effectively co-ordinated by Foreign Minister Yair Lapid, announced that Israel would not oppose a new US-Iranian understanding to revive the 2015 nuclear agreement.
There is both more and less to this apparent policy change by the new Israeli government than first meets the eye.
On the less side, Israel remains sceptical about the long-term viability of efforts to convince Iran to refrain voluntarily from one day going nuclear, particularly in the absence of a far stronger threat of military action from Washington.
On the more side, the reasons for this new restraint illustrate vividly how the new Israeli government differs from that of former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and how attitudes in Israel and the US towards each other are evolving.
The new Israeli government is confronted with the fact that a long history of strident Israeli opposition to US-Iranian nuclear negotiations, not to mention the 2015 agreement, has done nothing to prevent Washington doing exactly what it wants regarding Tehran.
Reasons for this new restraint illustrate how the new Israeli government differs from its predecessor
It is still fairly common for commentators in both the US and the Middle East to assert that the main US policy goal in the region is Israel's security, and that comes from both supporters and opponents of this alleged priority.
But, whether that conviction stems from excessive pride in that supposed policy, or passionate opposition to it, the fact is that it is perfectly clear that Israel retains no veto over US conduct in the Middle East or anywhere else. Washington's brushing aside of Israeli opposition, passionately expressed by Mr Netanyahu, when it came to the 2015 nuclear agreement is only the latest and one of the most dramatic illustrations of this.
Simply put, Israel does not have the level of influence in the US to prevent any potential understanding with Iran, including regarding nuclear weapons. So why would Mr Bennett and Mr Lapid waste energy and pick an unprofitable and pointless fight with President Joe Biden's administration and other Democrats when they have no realistic hope of restraining the Americans?
If anything, the fight would be politically counterproductive for the new government.
Mr Netanyahu made opposition to negotiations with Iran a cornerstone of his political profile and Israeli policy when he was in office. That played supremely well with his two main audiences – members and supporters of his own Likud party in Israel and hawkish Republicans and evangelical Christians in the US.
Even if he failed to prevent an agreement, and in the process angered many Democrats and other proponents of diplomacy with Tehran, he would benefit politically from vociferous complaining and critiquing the whole process.
His 2015 speech at a joint session of Congress, in which he effectively denounced the foreign policy of then president Barack Obama, was widely regarded as improper and even objectionable interference in domestic American politics by a foreign leader. And although diplomatically damaging to Israel, it was a considerable personal political success for him with his two primary target audiences.
The new Israeli coalition, an unlikely aggregation of extremely odd political bedfellows, cannot afford a major internal argument over US negotiations with Iran because that would very quickly expose the profound disagreements separating Mr Bennett from many of his cabinet colleagues, most of whom are dramatically to his political left.
So, from a political point of view, declining to get into a major argument in either the US or Israel, over this potential agreement that the Israelis couldn't stop anyway, is a no-brainer. It would be all-cost and no-benefit.
Finally, it would be particularly imprudent not to make it clear that this Israeli government isn't going to harass the Biden administration over a potential agreement with Iran because that is looking increasingly unlikely. Mr Biden was not able to come to terms with former president Hassan Rouhani, and there is no indication he is going to get more co-operation from the new hardline leader, Ebrahim Raisi.
American officials leading the negotiations remain determined to revive the 2015 agreement, but they are becoming increasingly pessimistic about the potential for a viable understanding with Iran.
Tehran's attitude appears to have hardened because the country, for all of its myriad difficulties, managed already to endure the worst blows from the "maximum pressure" sanctions campaign instituted by former US President Donald Trump and that has been largely maintained by Mr Biden. After terrible hardships suffered from 2019 to 2020, the Iranian economy has beefed up its internal markets and Iran has been able to sell oil to China and other customers.
For all of their impact, the sanctions did not bring Iran to its knees. Tehran seems to feel comfortable, therefore, with the prospect of simply saying no to Washington unless they get better terms. But that is not going to happen.
It is still the case that both the US and Iran say they want a renewed agreement and that this would be in the interests of both parties. But since both seem to believe they are operating from stronger positions than they actually have, and both seem intent on securing some gain from the other, it is becoming far easier to imagine the process ending without any substantive understanding.
So, for the Israelis, at this stage, categorically and openly opposing a potential new agreement would constitute picking a politically damaging fight, which they are likely to lose, over an agreement that is increasingly unlikely to actually be realised. That is not what you might call a difficult decision.
PAKISTAN SQUAD
Abid Ali, Fakhar Zaman, Imam-ul-Haq, Shan Masood, Azhar Ali (test captain), Babar Azam (T20 captain), Asad Shafiq, Fawad Alam, Haider Ali, Iftikhar Ahmad, Khushdil Shah, Mohammad Hafeez, Shoaib Malik, Mohammad Rizwan (wicketkeeper), Sarfaraz Ahmed (wicketkeeper), Faheem Ashraf, Haris Rauf, Imran Khan, Mohammad Abbas, Mohammad Hasnain, Naseem Shah, Shaheen Afridi, Sohail Khan, Usman Shinwari, Wahab Riaz, Imad Wasim, Kashif Bhatti, Shadab Khan and Yasir Shah.
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Going grey? A stylist's advice
If you’re going to go grey, a great style, well-cared for hair (in a sleek, classy style, like a bob), and a young spirit and attitude go a long way, says Maria Dowling, founder of the Maria Dowling Salon in Dubai.
It’s easier to go grey from a lighter colour, so you may want to do that first. And this is the time to try a shorter style, she advises. Then a stylist can introduce highlights, start lightening up the roots, and let it fade out. Once it’s entirely grey, a purple shampoo will prevent yellowing.
“Get professional help – there’s no other way to go around it,” she says. “And don’t just let it grow out because that looks really bad. Put effort into it: properly condition, straighten, get regular trims, make sure it’s glossy.”
RESULTS
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The Africa Institute 101
Housed on the same site as the original Africa Hall, which first hosted an Arab-African Symposium in 1976, the newly renovated building will be home to a think tank and postgraduate studies hub (it will offer master’s and PhD programmes). The centre will focus on both the historical and contemporary links between Africa and the Gulf, and will serve as a meeting place for conferences, symposia, lectures, film screenings, plays, musical performances and more. In fact, today it is hosting a symposium – 5-plus-1: Rethinking Abstraction that will look at the six decades of Frank Bowling’s career, as well as those of his contemporaries that invested social, cultural and personal meaning into abstraction.
Profile of Udrive
Date started: March 2016
Founder: Hasib Khan
Based: Dubai
Employees: 40
Amount raised (to date): $3.25m – $750,000 seed funding in 2017 and a Seed round of $2.5m last year. Raised $1.3m from Eureeca investors in January 2021 as part of a Series A round with a $5m target.
MATCH INFO
Juventus 1 (Dybala 45')
Lazio 3 (Alberto 16', Lulic 73', Cataldi 90 4')
Red card: Rodrigo Bentancur (Juventus)
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
MATCH INFO
Syria v Australia
2018 World Cup qualifying: Asia fourth round play-off first leg
Venue: Hang Jebat Stadium (Malacca, Malayisa)
Kick-off: Thursday, 4.30pm (UAE)
Watch: beIN Sports HD
* Second leg in Australia scheduled for October 10
Tori Amos
Native Invader
Decca
Tips for job-seekers
- Do not submit your application through the Easy Apply button on LinkedIn. Employers receive between 600 and 800 replies for each job advert on the platform. If you are the right fit for a job, connect to a relevant person in the company on LinkedIn and send them a direct message.
- Make sure you are an exact fit for the job advertised. If you are an HR manager with five years’ experience in retail and the job requires a similar candidate with five years’ experience in consumer, you should apply. But if you have no experience in HR, do not apply for the job.
David Mackenzie, founder of recruitment agency Mackenzie Jones Middle East
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cylinder turbo hybrid
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Power: 390bhp
Torque: 400Nm
Price: Dh340,000 ($92,579
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Kanguva
Director: Siva
Stars: Suriya, Bobby Deol, Disha Patani, Yogi Babu, Redin Kingsley
Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD)
What is THAAD?
It is considered to be the US' most superior missile defence system.
Production:
It was first created in 2008.
Speed:
THAAD missiles can travel at over Mach 8, so fast that it is hypersonic.
Abilities:
THAAD is designed to take out projectiles, namely ballistic missiles, as they are on their downward trajectory towards their target, otherwise known as the "terminal phase".
Purpose:
To protect high-value strategic sites, such as airfields or population centres.
Range:
THAAD can target projectiles both inside and outside of the Earth's atmosphere, at an altitude of 93 miles above the Earth's surface.
Creators:
Lockheed Martin was originally granted the contract to develop the system in 1992. Defence company Raytheon sub-contracts to develop other major parts of the system, such as ground-based radar.
UAE and THAAD:
In 2011, the UAE became the first country outside of the US to buy two THAAD missile defence systems. It then deployed them in 2016, becoming the first Gulf country to do so.
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
Earth under attack: Cosmic impacts throughout history
- 4.5 billion years ago: Mars-sized object smashes into the newly-formed Earth, creating debris that coalesces to form the Moon
- 66 million years ago: 10km-wide asteroid crashes into the Gulf of Mexico, wiping out over 70 per cent of living species – including the dinosaurs.
- 50,000 years ago: 50m-wide iron meteor crashes in Arizona with the violence of 10 megatonne hydrogen bomb, creating the famous 1.2km-wide Barringer Crater
- 1490: Meteor storm over Shansi Province, north-east China when large stones “fell like rain”, reportedly leading to thousands of deaths.
- 1908: 100-metre meteor from the Taurid Complex explodes near the Tunguska river in Siberia with the force of 1,000 Hiroshima-type bombs, devastating 2,000 square kilometres of forest.
- 1998: Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 breaks apart and crashes into Jupiter in series of impacts that would have annihilated life on Earth.
-2013: 10,000-tonne meteor burns up over the southern Urals region of Russia, releasing a pressure blast and flash that left over 1600 people injured.
