Energy This Week | The National

Hello from The National and welcome to the Energy This Week newsletter, our expert analysis on oil and gas, renewables and clean energy. Oil prices gained for the first week in three, with Brent crude rising $1.07 on Friday to close at $63.91. US-China trade talks and concord to lower tariffs for 90 days raised some hopes of a relaxation in trade tensions. So did the US’s first new trade deal, albeit a skimpily-detailed one with the UK. Washington also continues to tighten sanctions on buyers of Iranian oil, while talks over Tehran’s nuclear programme go on. The military exchanges between India and Pakistan also had some impact on the oil outlook. Military preparations would drive up diesel use while commercial jet fuel would decline because of the closures of airspace. Both countries are likely to procure more crude to build up fuel stocks. But after the two South Asian countries agreed to a ceasefire , the prospect of a bigger conflict, that could be disastrous for the regional economy, receded. The Opec+ group of oil exporters has decisively shifted policy since March by opting for a series of major production increases. Saudi Arabia has been frustrated by under-compliance to agreed cuts by Iraq and Kazakhstan. But are these countries the most exposed to lower oil prices, or will US shale production feel the pain first? Donald Trump’s Gulf visit is widely expected to bring deal making – that could include energy investments from the GCC into the US. Also carefully watched is any progress on an Iran-US nuclear deal that could remove a source of geopolitical worry and unlock Iranian oil exports. Initial announcements from the tour in Saudi Arabia included an expansion of Saudi Aramco’s refinery in the US, a deal to buy liquefied natural gas, and co-operation on minerals. Riyadh has made a commitment to invest $600 billion in the US, including $20 billion of deals on data centres and energy infrastructure by DataVolt, a $14.2 billion purchase of GE Vernova turbines and energy solutions, and a $5 billion Energy Investment Fund. The US Department of Energy and the Saudi Ministry of Energy agreed to co-operate on energy infrastructure, while the DoE will work with the Ministry of Industry and Mineral Resources on critical mineral supply chains. Saudi state oil giant Aramco’s earnings dropped 4.6 per cent in the first quarter, no big surprise given lower oil prices, although below most forecasts. The company has cut most of its performance-linked dividend to $200 million from $10.8 billion a year earlier. Its base dividend, though, was boosted 4.1 per cent to $21.1 billion, a welcome move for the Saudi government as the leading shareholder. Adnoc Drilling's first-quarter profit grew by almost a quarter, as it cemented its position as the Middle East’s largest drilling company. Adnoc’s drilling unit expects more acquisitions and partnerships this year, chief executive Abdulrahman Al Seiari told The National . Barclays Bank has initiated coverage of Adnoc Drilling and four other listed Adnoc subsidiaries – Adnoc Gas, Adnoc Distribution, Adnoc Logistics & Services, and fertiliser maker Fertiglobe – rating each overweight, that is, with potential for price appreciation. Dubai drivers will soon be able to use toll system Salik e-wallets to pay for fuel automatically at Emirates National Oil Company (Enoc) stations. Lower oil prices challenge Gulf economies, but their fiscal position is generally strong. Trade diplomacy and new investment in manufacturing and research are important parts of the Gulf’s emerging economic model . Last week’s Abu Dhabi business delegation to Japan signed deals on smart mobility, food waste and sustainability. Masdar has announced it will develop renewable and battery storage systems in Kazakhstan, including a “24/7” project providing 500 megawatts of baseload capacity from 2 gigawatts of renewable energy. After Heathrow’s disruptive blackout in March, an interim report into the incident shows that it took about seven hours after power was restored to resume flights. The study did not find evidence of a suspicious cause to the power cut, triggered by at a substation. The intensifying geopolitical competition for critical minerals for new energy technologies may not have a very strong commercial rationale. But its strategic side has captured the imagination of high-profile analysts and politicos. The deep sea appears the last, vast unexplored resource frontier. Lengthy diplomatic and legal talks have sought to hash out rules for its responsible use, talks from which the US, as a non-signatory of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, has been excluded. Now Donald Trump has issued an executive order seeking to accelerate deep-sea mining both within the US’s economic zone and in international waters, bypassing the UN negotiations, in which rival China has been a leading participant. Environmentalists are worried about possibly devastating impacts on deep-sea ecosystems from hasty mining. The Arab world’s first collaboratively-developed satellite, 813, led by the UAE Space Agency, is expected to lift-off in June. The satellite will carry out Earth observation with hyperspectral sensors, looking for things such as soil conditions, water quality and pollution. UAE meteorology teams track dust and pollution to predict unhealthy conditions, with AI offering improved forecasting capabilities. Dust storms often strike the country during the transition from spring to summer. After last April’s record rainfall in the UAE, this year has started unusually dry . Rain up to March was 38 per cent below the historic average, just 25 millimetres, and well below the 129mm recorded during 2024. Most of the country’s rain falls in the first quarter and December. For comparison, England would receive on average 207 millimetres of precipitation in the first quarter. In an arid country, the UAE’s swimming pools evaporate billions of litres of water annually. Solid covers could cut this water loss by 87 per cent. UAE start-up Manhat, whose device produces fresh water from seawater without using electricity, received the Best Practices Award at Expo 2025 in Osaka, Japan. And re-examining the history of the Middle East’s relationship with water could inspire more sustainable future solutions to scarcity. The UAE’s pavilion at this year’s Venice Biennale shows greenhouse design for growing food in hot, arid climates. This could be essential for food security as climate change worsens. A nationwide UAE campaign will track food waste, in an attempt to halve wastage by 2030.