As Israeli air strikes hammer targets across Iran, officially aimed at dismantling its nuclear and missile infrastructure, questions are being raised about whether the campaign marks the start of a broader push for regime change in Tehran.
The name of Israel's air assault – Operation Rising Lion – is a reference to the big cat on Iran's pre-revolutionary flag, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly suggested Iranian citizens rise up against their government.
In an interview with Fox News on Sunday, he was asked whether regime change was a goal of the military operation. “It could certainly be the result, because Iran is very weak,” Mr Netanyahu said. “The decision to act, to rise up, at this time is the decision of the Iranian people.”
He told Israeli journalists the next day that “this is a very weak regime that now understands how weak it is. We could see many changes in Iran.”
Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of Iran’s last shah, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, has been urging Iranians to rise up, following years of anti-government protests that have been repeatedly met with brutal repression.
“The Islamic Republic has come to its end and is collapsing,” he said in video posted on social media. "What has begun is irreversible. The future is bright, and together, we will turn the page of history. Now is the time to stand up, the time to reclaim Iran. May I be with you soon."
Mr Pahlavi, who has lived in exile for decades, has long positioned himself as a potential transitional figure for a post-Islamic Republic Iran.
But “Pahlavi is not a politically significant individual”, said Ali Alfoneh, author of Political Succession in the Islamic Republic of Iran. “Because of his close association with Prime Minister Netanyahu, his public standing is in freefall in Iran, especially as we are seeing increased number of civilian casualties of the Israeli bombings.”
“Encouraging foreign powers to bomb Iran will not increase his popularity at home,” Mr Alfoneh added. “He should be asked, 'do you really want to be the king of a heap of ruins? Is this really what you want to be a king for?'”
French President Emmanuel Macron on Tuesday warned against any move to alter Iran’s leadership with force.
“We don’t want Iran to get a nuclear weapon,” Mr Macron said. “But the biggest error would be to use military strikes to change the regime because it would then be chaos.”
Mr Alfoneh said Israel’s end goal is not only the destruction of Iran's nuclear and missile programme, or regime change, but the “fragmentation of Iran as a state”.
“We are seeing tendencies towards the beginning of a civil war, with Iran's periphery regions rebelling against the centre,” he said. “It is also remarkable that Israel has also targeted mechanised and armoured divisions in north-western parts of Iran."
This amounted to a clear indication that Israel is trying to weaken the armoured divisions that would face any Kurdish insurgents.
“Therefore, I'm not expecting the Iranian middle-class to fight the regime at a time and circumstances when there is a very real risk of collapse of the central power in Tehran and a civil war breaking,” Mr Alfoneh said.
The people of Iran will all unite to preserve the country “in spite of the hatred for the regime”.
Dennis Ross, former US Middle East peace negotiator under presidents George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton, said it remains difficult to predict who could lead Iran if the current regime collapses.
“There is no known leader of the opposition,” Mr Ross told The National. “And the Iranian opposition on the outside seem to have a very hard time ever agreeing on anything”.
“In theory if there is a split in the elite, with one part reaching out for public support and seemingly getting it, there might be the potential for a transitional leadership,” he added.
Israeli operations are designed to weaken Iran’s military capacity and destabilise its leadership, but regime change is not the explicit goal, a US-based Iran analyst told The National.
“The aim is to force a choice: Iran can maintain its regime or its nuclear programme, not both,” said Jason Brodsky, policy director at United Against Nuclear Iran. “I don’t think regime change is an explicit goal of this operation.”
Still, he noted, “depending on how events play out, it can result in regime collapse that could lead to regime change”.
A political member of an Iraqi armed faction dismissed the possibility of regime change in Tehran. “If the Israelis believe they can defeat 100 million Iranians, they’re delusional,” the official said.
The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said Iran’s regional adversaries had steadily intensified their demands – from restricting its nuclear programme to now targeting its missile capabilities and openly discussing overthrowing its government.
“We’ve definitely noticed the escalation in the rhetoric of aggression towards Iran – from preventing it from obtaining nuclear weapons, to banning enrichment on Iranian soil, then banning enrichment altogether, then dismantling the entire nuclear programme, and now to denying Iran the right to missile capabilities and production – all the way to both veiled and open Israeli threats of regime change in Iran,” the official said.
Meanwhile, a political figure close to Iran-backed Hezbollah said Israel’s military actions against Iran could redefine regional conflict dynamics.
“The developments in the Israeli aggression against Iran may reveal the potential for a change in the rules of the game and how deeply any foreign actor becomes involved in the war, especially given the Israeli narrative of 'regime change',” the source told The National on condition of anonymity. “That could shift the entire equation.”
They denied Iran had sought military help from Hezbollah or allied groups, despite escalating hostilities.
“It’s a given that Hezbollah supports Iran politically, in the media and through public solidarity,” they said. “Tehran neither needs nor has asked for any military assistance from Hezbollah or any other resistance factions. It’s inflicting pain on Israel on its own, without any help.”
The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins
Read part two: how climate change drove the race for an alternative
Read part one: how cars came to the UAE
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Engine: 2-litre turbocharged
Power: 254hp
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• The National announces Future of News journalism competition
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Tomorrow 2021
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Our legal columnist
Name: Yousef Al Bahar
Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994
Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers
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Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
Price: From Dh98,800
Available: Now
It's Monty Python's Crashing Rocket Circus
To the theme tune of the famous zany British comedy TV show, SpaceX has shown exactly what can go wrong when you try to land a rocket.
The two minute video posted on YouTube is a compilation of crashes and explosion as the company, created by billionaire Elon Musk, refined the technique of reusable space flight.
SpaceX is able to land its rockets on land once they have completed the first stage of their mission, and is able to resuse them multiple times - a first for space flight.
But as the video, How Not to Land an Orbital Rocket Booster, demonstrates, it was a case if you fail, try and try again.
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The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
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Tomorrow 2021
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Our commentary on Brexit
- Alistair Burt: Despite Brexit, Britain can remain a world power
- Con Coughlin: Choice of the British people will be vindicated
War and the virus
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• The National announces Future of News journalism competition
• Round up: Experts share their visions of the world to come
World Mental Health Day
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Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
War 2
Director: Ayan Mukerji
Stars: Hrithik Roshan, NTR, Kiara Advani, Ashutosh Rana
Rating: 2/5
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
National Editorial: Suleimani has been killed, now we must de-escalate
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Jack Moore: Why the assassination is such a monumental gamble
Matthew Levitt: Iran retains its ability to launch terror attacks
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Hussein Ibish: Trump's order on solid constitutional ground
Simon Waldman: Cautious Israel keeping a low profile
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School uniforms report
Plastic tipping point
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
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9.30pm: Forever Young
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Mina Al Oraibi: Air strike casts a long shadow over the decade ahead
Jack Moore: Why the assassination is such a monumental gamble
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Hussein Ibish: Trump's order on solid constitutional ground
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Plastic tipping points
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
National Editorial: Suleimani has been killed, now we must de-escalate
Mina Al Oraibi: Air strike casts a long shadow over the decade ahead
Jack Moore: Why the assassination is such a monumental gamble
Matthew Levitt: Iran retains its ability to launch terror attacks
Hussein Ibish: Trump's order on solid constitutional ground
Simon Waldman: Cautious Israel keeping a low profile
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Conflict, drought, famine
Estimates of the number of deaths caused by the famine range from 400,000 to 1 million, according to a document prepared for the UK House of Lords in 2024.
It has been claimed that the policies of the Ethiopian government, which took control after deposing Emperor Haile Selassie in a military-led revolution in 1974, contributed to the scale of the famine.
Dr Miriam Bradley, senior lecturer in humanitarian studies at the University of Manchester, has argued that, by the early 1980s, “several government policies combined to cause, rather than prevent, a famine which lasted from 1983 to 1985. Mengistu’s government imposed Stalinist-model agricultural policies involving forced collectivisation and villagisation [relocation of communities into planned villages].
The West became aware of the catastrophe through a series of BBC News reports by journalist Michael Buerk in October 1984 describing a “biblical famine” and containing graphic images of thousands of people, including children, facing starvation.
Band Aid
Bob Geldof, singer with the Irish rock group The Boomtown Rats, formed Band Aid in response to the horrific images shown in the news broadcasts.
With Midge Ure of the band Ultravox, he wrote the hit charity single Do They Know it’s Christmas in December 1984, featuring a string of high-profile musicians.
Following the single’s success, the idea to stage a rock concert evolved.
Live Aid was a series of simultaneous concerts that took place at Wembley Stadium in London, John F Kennedy Stadium in Philadelphia, the US, and at various other venues across the world.
The combined event was broadcast to an estimated worldwide audience of 1.5 billion.
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Uefa Champions League, last-16, second leg (first-leg scores in brackets):
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The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
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Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins
Read part one: how cars came to the UAE
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Matthew Levitt: Iran retains its ability to launch terror attacks
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Hussein Ibish: Trump's order on solid constitutional ground
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Uefa Champioons League semi-final, first leg:
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Mina Cup winners
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KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
National Editorial: Suleimani has been killed, now we must de-escalate
Mina Al Oraibi: Air strike casts a long shadow over the decade ahead
Jack Moore: Why the assassination is such a monumental gamble
Matthew Levitt: Iran retains its ability to launch terror attacks
Damien McElroy: A CEO tasked with spreading Iran's influence
Hussein Ibish: Trump's order on solid constitutional ground
Simon Waldman: Cautious Israel keeping a low profile
Rashmee Roshan Lall: Sound of silence in South Asia
Richard Olson: Why Afghanistan will be very wary
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
National Editorial: Suleimani has been killed, now we must de-escalate
Mina Al Oraibi: Air strike casts a long shadow over the decade ahead
Jack Moore: Why the assassination is such a monumental gamble
Matthew Levitt: Iran retains its ability to launch terror attacks
Damien McElroy: A CEO tasked with spreading Iran's influence
Hussein Ibish: Trump's order on solid constitutional ground
Simon Waldman: Cautious Israel keeping a low profile
Rashmee Roshan Lall: Sound of silence in South Asia
Fanar Haddad: The Iranian response will be gradual
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
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Jack Moore: Why the assassination is such a monumental gamble
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Damien McElroy: A CEO tasked with spreading Iran's influence
Hussein Ibish: Trump's order on solid constitutional ground
Simon Waldman: Cautious Israel keeping a low profile
Our commentary on Brexit
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- Sam Williams: Departure is influenced by its sense of place
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Know your camel milk:
Flavour: Similar to goat’s milk, although less pungent. Vaguely sweet with a subtle, salty aftertaste.
Texture: Smooth and creamy, with a slightly thinner consistency than cow’s milk.
Use it: In your morning coffee, to add flavour to homemade ice cream and milk-heavy desserts, smoothies, spiced camel-milk hot chocolate.
Goes well with: chocolate and caramel, saffron, cardamom and cloves. Also works well with honey and dates.
Long read
Mageed Yahia, director of WFP in UAE: Coronavirus knows no borders, and neither should the response
Electric scooters: some rules to remember
- Riders must be 14-years-old or over
- Wear a protective helmet
- Park the electric scooter in designated parking lots (if any)
- Do not leave electric scooter in locations that obstruct traffic or pedestrians
- Solo riders only, no passengers allowed
- Do not drive outside designated lanes
The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on
Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins
Read part two: how climate change drove the race for an alternative
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-final, first leg
Bayern Munich v Real Madrid
When: April 25, 10.45pm kick-off (UAE)
Where: Allianz Arena, Munich
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Second leg: May 1, Santiago Bernabeu, Madrid
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Learn more about Qasr Al Hosn
In 2013, The National's History Project went beyond the walls to see what life was like living in Abu Dhabi's fabled fort:
- Life in the royal residences with Sheikha Osha bint Nahayan
- Sheikha Mahra and Sheikha Sabha recall their time spent in Al Hosn
- A place where problems were solved
- How the fort's rise tracked Abu Dhabi's development
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How the bonus system works
The two riders are among several riders in the UAE to receive the top payment of £10,000 under the Thank You Fund of £16 million (Dh80m), which was announced in conjunction with Deliveroo's £8 billion (Dh40bn) stock market listing earlier this year.
The £10,000 (Dh50,000) payment is made to those riders who have completed the highest number of orders in each market.
There are also riders who will receive payments of £1,000 (Dh5,000) and £500 (Dh2,500).
All riders who have worked with Deliveroo for at least one year and completed 2,000 orders will receive £200 (Dh1,000), the company said when it announced the scheme.
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• Could the UAE drive India's economy?
• News has a bright future and the UAE is at the heart of it
• Architecture is over - here's cybertecture
• The National announces Future of News journalism competition
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Sudden change in behaviour or displays higher levels of stress or anxiety
Shows signs of depression or isolation
Ability to sleep well diminishes
Academic performance begins to deteriorate
Changes in eating habits
Struggles to concentrate
Refuses to go to school
Behaviour changes and is aggressive towards siblings
Begins to use language they do not normally use
Comment on Coronavirus
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National Editorial: Suleimani has been killed, now we must de-escalate
Mina Al Oraibi: Air strike casts a long shadow over the decade ahead
Jack Moore: Why the assassination is such a monumental gamble
Damien McElroy: A CEO tasked with spreading Iran's influence
Hussein Ibish: Trump's order on solid constitutional ground
Simon Waldman: Cautious Israel keeping a low profile
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Dr Nawal Al-Hosany: Why more women should be on the frontlines of climate action
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Samar Elmnhrawy: How companies in the Middle East can catch up on gender equality
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Why are asylum seekers being housed in hotels?
The number of asylum applications in the UK has reached a new record high, driven by those illegally entering the country in small boats crossing the English Channel.
A total of 111,084 people applied for asylum in the UK in the year to June 2025, the highest number for any 12-month period since current records began in 2001.
Asylum seekers and their families can be housed in temporary accommodation while their claim is assessed.
The Home Office provides the accommodation, meaning asylum seekers cannot choose where they live.
When there is not enough housing, the Home Office can move people to hotels or large sites like former military bases.
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Countries offering golden visas
UK
Innovator Founder Visa is aimed at those who can demonstrate relevant experience in business and sufficient investment funds to set up and scale up a new business in the UK. It offers permanent residence after three years.
Germany
Investing or establishing a business in Germany offers you a residence permit, which eventually leads to citizenship. The investment must meet an economic need and you have to have lived in Germany for five years to become a citizen.
Italy
The scheme is designed for foreign investors committed to making a significant contribution to the economy. Requires a minimum investment of €250,000 which can rise to €2 million.
Switzerland
Residence Programme offers residence to applicants and their families through economic contributions. The applicant must agree to pay an annual lump sum in tax.
Canada
Start-Up Visa Programme allows foreign entrepreneurs the opportunity to create a business in Canada and apply for permanent residence.
Five famous companies founded by teens
There are numerous success stories of teen businesses that were created in college dorm rooms and other modest circumstances. Below are some of the most recognisable names in the industry:
- Facebook: Mark Zuckerberg and his friends started Facebook when he was a 19-year-old Harvard undergraduate.
- Dell: When Michael Dell was an undergraduate student at Texas University in 1984, he started upgrading computers for profit. He starting working full-time on his business when he was 19. Eventually, his company became the Dell Computer Corporation and then Dell Inc.
- Subway: Fred DeLuca opened the first Subway restaurant when he was 17. In 1965, Mr DeLuca needed extra money for college, so he decided to open his own business. Peter Buck, a family friend, lent him $1,000 and together, they opened Pete’s Super Submarines. A few years later, the company was rebranded and called Subway.
- Mashable: In 2005, Pete Cashmore created Mashable in Scotland when he was a teenager. The site was then a technology blog. Over the next few decades, Mr Cashmore has turned Mashable into a global media company.
- Oculus VR: Palmer Luckey founded Oculus VR in June 2012, when he was 19. In August that year, Oculus launched its Kickstarter campaign and raised more than $1 million in three days. Facebook bought Oculus for $2 billion two years later.
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Sholto Byrnes: Washington tells South-East Asians to pick a side
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Guns N’ Roses’s last gig before Abu Dhabi was in Hong Kong on November 21. We were there – and here’s what they played, and in what order. You were warned.
- It’s So Easy
- Mr Brownstone
- Chinese Democracy
- Welcome to the Jungle
- Double Talkin’ Jive
- Better
- Estranged
- Live and Let Die (Wings cover)
- Slither (Velvet Revolver cover)
- Rocket Queen
- You Could Be Mine
- Shadow of Your Love
- Attitude (Misfits cover)
- Civil War
- Coma
- Love Theme from The Godfather (movie cover)
- Sweet Child O’ Mine
- Wichita Lineman (Jimmy Webb cover)
- Wish You Were Here (instrumental Pink Floyd cover)
- November Rain
- Black Hole Sun (Soundgarden cover)
- Knockin’ on Heaven’s Door (Bob Dylan cover)
- Nightrain
Encore:
- Patience
- Don’t Cry
- The Seeker (The Who cover)
- Paradise City
'Falling%20for%20Christmas'
The Year Earth Changed
Directed by:Tom Beard
Narrated by: Sir David Attenborough
Stars: 4
