Trump returns to a changed Gulf: How the region has evolved since 2017

Live updates: Follow the latest on Trump's Gulf trip

When US President Donald Trump visited the Gulf in 2017, he was welcomed with swords, spectacle and strategic assurances. Back then, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar were key pillars of a region deeply tied to Washington’s security umbrella.

Now, as Mr Trump prepares to make the first official foreign trip of his second term, he returns to a transformed peninsula – one that has become more self-assured and strategically diversified.

Observers say he will find a Gulf that has shifted economically and diplomatically since his 2017 visit. While the US remains a primary defence partner, it is no longer the sole power shaping the region. Beijing, Brussels, New Delhi and Moscow are now part of a multipolar matrix that Gulf capitals navigate with increasing confidence.

Mr Trump’s visit to Riyadh, Doha and Abu Dhabi comes at a moment when these countries are projecting influence well beyond their borders. From brokering ceasefires, mediating one crisis after another and hosting global investment forums, Gulf states have emerged as active players and architects of a new regional order. They have matured geopolitically, becoming multi-aligned power centres with global ambitions.

“The Gulf has now more options in terms of strategic partners, investment partners and commercial and trade partners,” said Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, an Emirati non-resident senior fellow at Harvard University.

Yet, while economic ties to China and the East have grown, analysts argue that the US remains the Gulf’s principal military and security guarantor.

“Find me another security partner that has dozens of thousands of troops and powerful assets in the region and that can surge at a moment’s notice to deal with any emerging military contingency and crisis,” Bilal Saab, senior managing director of Trends US and a former Pentagon official in the first Trump administration, told The National. “I’m not convinced there’s another security partner like the US.”

Last week, the State Department approved a possible foreign military sale to Saudi Arabia of AIM-120C-8 advanced medium range air-to-air missiles and related support for $3.5 billion, the Pentagon said in a statement. This came after Reuters reported the US was poised to offer Saudi Arabia an arms package worth well over $100 billion during Mr Trump's visit to the kingdom.

Major investment agreements are also expected to headline the President’s agenda. Mr Trump said Saudi Arabia had agreed to invest “$1 trillion in our economy", though Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has only confirmed a pledge of $600 billion. Some say Riyadh may struggle to deliver on such a pledge, given the dip in oil prices.

Brent crude prices dropped to under $60 per barrel this week, well below the $100 price Saudi Arabia needs to balance its budget.

Qatar and the UAE are also touting ambitious investment plans of their own. The UAE has announced a 10-year, $1.4 trillion investment framework targeting US-based infrastructure, including artificial intelligence, semiconductors, manufacturing and natural gas.

Saudi Arabia

In 2017, Prince Mohammed was a newly ascendant force, consolidating power at home and capturing headlines abroad with sweeping reform plans and controversial moves. Today, the Crown Prince is a more seasoned leader.

Riyadh has positioned itself as a diplomatic hub, mediating in conflicts and leading a pragmatic realignment in the Middle East. The Saudi capital is now the place to be for leaders, chief executives and other players.

The kingdom this year hosted separate US talks with Ukraine and Russia. The Riyadh meeting in February was the first high-level, in-person encounter between Russia and the US since the Ukraine war began.

One priority on Mr Trump’s agenda, according to sources, is to push for Saudi Arabia to join the Abraham Accords. But Riyadh continues to maintain that establishing ties with Israel is contingent on a Palestinian state being established. Saudi officials have emphasised that, without a clear and irreversible path to Palestinian statehood, establishing ties with Israel is “off the table”. That stance suggests that Mr Trump may face greater resistance than he did in his first term.

Still, it remains possible, said Mr Saab. “But it will require addressing the Israeli people and convincing them that the path forward for their country and its security is without this far-right government," he added.

Many observers, though, say that the American President will press ahead with regional initiatives, with or without Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

UAE

The UAE has parlayed its early embrace of globalisation into a commanding role on the world stage. In 2017, it was already punching above its weight. In 2025, it is a regional heavyweight.

From hosting the Cop28 climate change summit to leading AI innovation and attracting capital from Asia, Africa and the West, the Emirates has become a critical node in the global economy. Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth funds are steering billions into climate tech and semiconductors, while Dubai remains a magnet for billionaires, digital nomads and hedge funds.

Geopolitically, the UAE has taken a hedging approach, maintaining robust ties with the US while deepening relations with China, Russia and India. It also agreed with the EU to launch free trade talks and has been mediating prisoner exchanges between Russia and Ukraine.

“Gulf states feel comfortable sitting next to America for the time being and for the foreseeable future,” said Dr Abdulla, adding that the UAE and its neighbours are simultaneously looking East. “Asia is the continent of the future," he noted.

“The UAE and other Gulf nations have recognised the importance of Asia … they are becoming more aware of their Asian affinity and identity than they were eight years ago."

Saudi Arabia and the UAE are incrementally buying more military equipment from non-US suppliers, said Hasan Alhasan, senior fellow for Middle East policy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London.

"This includes Turkish and Chinese UAVs, South Korean surface-to-air missiles, and, in the UAE's case, Chinese L-15 trainer jets and Russia's point defence system Pantsir," he added. "Nevertheless, the Arab Gulf states remain western-oriented on major air domain purchases, preferring US and European systems."

Qatar

Doha has become a mediator for some of the world’s thorniest conflicts. Qatar has hosted negotiations involving Hamas, the Taliban, and US and EU officials, positioning itself as a unique diplomatic conduit. Its ties to Islamist groups, once viewed as liabilities, are now tools of engagement. During the ongoing Gaza war, Qatar has played a central role in brokering ceasefire proposals and humanitarian corridors.

Its foreign policy clout is backed by a strong economic foundation, including partnerships with European energy companies and long-term LNG deals with Asian buyers. Qatar has managed to retain close ties with Washington while expanding its diplomatic reach.

For Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the US remains a key ally, but not the only one. This time, Mr Trump is visiting a geopolitical crossroads with its own agenda.

"The Arab Gulf states cannot afford to choose between the US, their main and preferred security partner, China, their top trading partner, and Russia, their partner in managing Opec+," said Mr Alhasan. "They are actively positioning themselves as a place for doing business with everyone even as the global economy bifurcates between the US and China."

A Gulf-US summit is expected to take place in Riyadh next week during Mr Trump's trip. Saudi Arabia's King Salman has invited leaders of the GCC to attend the meeting, per sources.