US officials are preparing for a meeting aimed at formulating a new nuclear deal with Iran, but those involved in structuring the previous agreement say the situation is fundamentally different from the first time talks took place.
In 2018, during his first term in office, President Donald Trump withdrew the US from a deal struck by former president Barack Obama's administration and world powers, which put limits on Iran's nuclear programme in exchange for sanctions relief. But shortly after returning to the White House this year, Mr Trump announced he had reached out to Iranian leadership about a new deal.
Richard Nephew, a senior research scholar at Columbia University who was involved in negotiating the original nuclear deal, said the odds of an agreement are “much lower” this time around.
“I was the only member of the team who was convinced that we were going to get a deal – basically the entire time, I never went below 50 per cent,” Mr Nephew told The National, explaining that the previous negotiations had the benefit of starting with a clean slate. “We didn't have years of bad blood having built up, but we do now, and particularly with this president, and in particular with an Iranian system that didn't fully believe that we would commit to a deal in the first place.”
Mr Trump has had a contentious relationship with Iran. After pulling out of the original deal, he instituted a “maximum pressure” sanctions campaign against Tehran, which he reinstituted soon after taking office.
He also ordered the killing of Qassem Suleimani, commander of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' Quds Force, in Baghdad in 2020. And even after announcing his desire for a new nuclear deal, he has engaged in incendiary rhetoric against Tehran, including saying “there will be bombing” and that it will be a “very bad day for Iran” if talks do not ultimately result in an agreement.
This mistrust is only one of several obstacles facing the teams heading into the talks in Oman.
Gary Samore, the director of the Crown Centre for Middle East Studies at Brandeis University and a member of the team involved in forming the framework of the original deal, said that Mr Obama built up an international coalition – known as the P5+1 that also included China, France, Russia, the UK and Germany – to engage with Iran. Mr Trump, however, has alienated many allies since coming back to power.
“Trump is feuding with the Europeans. He wants to improve ties with Russia, but a ceasefire in Ukraine is elusive. We're entering into a big trade war with China – so the big powers are not lined up to co-operate on Iran,” Mr Samore told The National. “And I think that gives Iran a little bit more latitude, or makes them feel like they're less isolated internationally.”
Russia and China were previously “genuine partners” with the US in wanting to secure a deal, but that's no longer the case, according to Robert Einhorn, who was assistant secretary for nonproliferation in the Clinton administration and special adviser to the Secretary of State for nonproliferation and arms control in the Obama administration, and participated in the talks that led to the original agreement.
“Today is a fundamentally different situation. You have China and Russia having reached a strategic partnership with Iran – neither one of them will do anything to pressure Iran to accept the kind of deal that the US wants,” Mr Einhorn, currently a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, told The National.
In addition, there are concerns of mutual intransigence over the future of Iran's nuclear ambitions. The Trump administration has indicated it wants Iran to completely dismantle its programme, while Tehran, which has always insisted that the programme is for peaceful purposes, has rejected that. The previous deal allowed for some enrichment of uranium but with strict limits, to avoid the possibility of Iran possessing enough materials to build a nuclear weapon.
While Iran's nuclear programme has greatly expanded since the previous deal imploded, Tehran may feel more pressure to make a deal with the US, with its economy in tatters and its regional influence on the wane. Mr Samore pointed out that the Iranians also likely view Mr Trump's threat of use of force as more credible than under Mr Obama or his successor Joe Biden.
But for those involved in the formulation of the original agreement, the fear is that if the US does not have a strong team in place, the talks will come to nothing in the end, no matter how much both sides want a deal.
“Of course, there are still nuclear experts and sanctions experts in the US government,” Mr Samore said “But there has been a loss of talent … Biden brought in people that were outside the JCPOA, so I think there's talent there, but so far, I haven't seen any indication that [Middle East envoy Steve] Witkoff has put a team together, and I don't even know who would lead the US negotiations.”
Mr Nephew added that the recent drive by the Trump administration to cut down on government waste by carrying out mass firings of federal employees, some of whom could have contributed knowledge and experience to the negotiations.
“There's still civil servants and experts to the system who could contribute, sure there are,” he said. “But then, you know, it's not clear to me that they're using those people … So my own sense is that they don't really have the team capable to do a similar kind of deal as we got.”
Mr Einhorn also noted a general lack of cohesion in the Trump administration with regard to Iran. Despite the fact that Mr Trump has suggested there could be a military response if talks fail, Mr Einhorn believes the administration is motivated to hammer out a deal.
“I think the most important voice, of course, will be the President's voice and he seems inclined to give diplomacy a real chance,” he said.
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
Company profile
Date started: Founded in May 2017 and operational since April 2018
Founders: co-founder and chief executive, Doaa Aref; Dr Rasha Rady, co-founder and chief operating officer.
Based: Cairo, Egypt
Sector: Health-tech
Size: 22 employees
Funding: Seed funding
Investors: Flat6labs, 500 Falcons, three angel investors
Founders: Ines Mena, Claudia Ribas, Simona Agolini, Nourhan Hassan and Therese Hundt
Date started: January 2017, app launched November 2017
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Private/Retail/Leisure
Number of Employees: 18 employees, including full-time and flexible workers
Funding stage and size: Seed round completed Q4 2019 - $1m raised
Funders: Oman Technology Fund, 500 Startups, Vision Ventures, Seedstars, Mindshift Capital, Delta Partners Ventures, with support from the OQAL Angel Investor Network and UAE Business Angels
Suggested picnic spots
Abu Dhabi
Umm Al Emarat Park
Yas Gateway Park
Delma Park
Al Bateen beach
Saadiyaat beach
The Corniche
Zayed Sports City
Dubai
Kite Beach
Zabeel Park
Al Nahda Pond Park
Mushrif Park
Safa Park
Al Mamzar Beach Park
Al Qudrah Lakes
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Company Profile
Name: Thndr
Started: 2019
Co-founders: Ahmad Hammouda and Seif Amr
Sector: FinTech
Headquarters: Egypt
UAE base: Hub71, Abu Dhabi
Current number of staff: More than 150
Funds raised: $22 million
Afghanistan Premier League - at a glance
Venue: Sharjah Cricket Stadium
Fixtures:
Tue, Oct 16, 8pm: Kandahar Knights v Kabul Zwanan; Wed, Oct 17, 4pm: Balkh Legends v Nangarhar Leopards; 8pm: Kandahar Knights v Paktia Panthers; Thu, Oct 18, 4pm: Balkh Legends v Kandahar Knights; 8pm: Kabul Zwanan v Paktia Panthers; Fri, Oct 19, 8pm: First semi-final; Sat, Oct 20, 8pm: Second semi-final; Sun, Oct 21, 8pm: final
Table:
1. Balkh Legends 6 5 1 10
2. Paktia Panthers 6 4 2 8
3. Kabul Zwanan 6 3 3 6
4. Nagarhar Leopards 7 2 5 4
5. Kandahar Knights 5 1 4 2
10 tips for entry-level job seekers
- Have an up-to-date, professional LinkedIn profile. If you don’t have a LinkedIn account, set one up today. Avoid poor-quality profile pictures with distracting backgrounds. Include a professional summary and begin to grow your network.
- Keep track of the job trends in your sector through the news. Apply for job alerts at your dream organisations and the types of jobs you want – LinkedIn uses AI to share similar relevant jobs based on your selections.
- Double check that you’ve highlighted relevant skills on your resume and LinkedIn profile.
- For most entry-level jobs, your resume will first be filtered by an applicant tracking system for keywords. Look closely at the description of the job you are applying for and mirror the language as much as possible (while being honest and accurate about your skills and experience).
- Keep your CV professional and in a simple format – make sure you tailor your cover letter and application to the company and role.
- Go online and look for details on job specifications for your target position. Make a list of skills required and set yourself some learning goals to tick off all the necessary skills one by one.
- Don’t be afraid to reach outside your immediate friends and family to other acquaintances and let them know you are looking for new opportunities.
- Make sure you’ve set your LinkedIn profile to signal that you are “open to opportunities”. Also be sure to use LinkedIn to search for people who are still actively hiring by searching for those that have the headline “I’m hiring” or “We’re hiring” in their profile.
- Prepare for online interviews using mock interview tools. Even before landing interviews, it can be useful to start practising.
- Be professional and patient. Always be professional with whoever you are interacting with throughout your search process, this will be remembered. You need to be patient, dedicated and not give up on your search. Candidates need to make sure they are following up appropriately for roles they have applied.
Arda Atalay, head of Mena private sector at LinkedIn Talent Solutions, Rudy Bier, managing partner of Kinetic Business Solutions and Ben Kinerman Daltrey, co-founder of KinFitz
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
More from Neighbourhood Watch
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
In numbers: China in Dubai
The number of Chinese people living in Dubai: An estimated 200,000
Number of Chinese people in International City: Almost 50,000
Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2018/19: 120,000
Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2010: 20,000
Percentage increase in visitors in eight years: 500 per cent
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The biog
Favourite films: Casablanca and Lawrence of Arabia
Favourite books: Start with Why by Simon Sinek and Good to be Great by Jim Collins
Favourite dish: Grilled fish
Inspiration: Sheikh Zayed's visionary leadership taught me to embrace new challenges.
Recent winners
2002 Giselle Khoury (Colombia)
2004 Nathalie Nasralla (France)
2005 Catherine Abboud (Oceania)
2007 Grace Bijjani (Mexico)
2008 Carina El-Keddissi (Brazil)
2009 Sara Mansour (Brazil)
2010 Daniella Rahme (Australia)
2011 Maria Farah (Canada)
2012 Cynthia Moukarzel (Kuwait)
2013 Layla Yarak (Australia)
2014 Lia Saad (UAE)
2015 Cynthia Farah (Australia)
2016 Yosmely Massaad (Venezuela)
2017 Dima Safi (Ivory Coast)
2018 Rachel Younan (Australia)
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Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh117,059
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
How much do leading UAE’s UK curriculum schools charge for Year 6?
- Nord Anglia International School (Dubai) – Dh85,032
- Kings School Al Barsha (Dubai) – Dh71,905
- Brighton College Abu Dhabi - Dh68,560
- Jumeirah English Speaking School (Dubai) – Dh59,728
- Gems Wellington International School – Dubai Branch – Dh58,488
- The British School Al Khubairat (Abu Dhabi) - Dh54,170
- Dubai English Speaking School – Dh51,269
*Annual tuition fees covering the 2024/2025 academic year
EA Sports FC 26
Publisher: EA Sports
Consoles: PC, PlayStation 4/5, Xbox Series X/S
Rating: 3/5
Results
6.30pm: Baniyas (PA) Group 2 Dh195,000 1,400m | Winner: ES Ajeeb, Sam Hitchcock (jockey), Ibrahim Aseel (trainer)
7.05pm: Maiden (TB) Dh165,000 1,400m | Winner: Al Shamkhah, Royston Ffrench, Sandeep Jadhav
7.40pm: Handicap (TB) Dh190,000 1,200m | Winner: Lavaspin, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar
8.15pm: Maiden (TB) Dh165,000 1,200m | Winner: Kawasir, Dane O’Neill, Musabah Al Muhairi
8.50pm: Rated Conditions (TB) Dh240,000 1,600m | Winner: Cosmo Charlie, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson
9.20pm: Handicap (TB) Dh165,000 1,400m | Winner: Bochart, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar
10pm: Handicap (TB) Dh175,000 2,000m | Winner: Quartier Francais, Fernando Jara, Ali Rashid Al Raihe
NBA Finals results
Game 1: Warriors 124, Cavaliers 114
Game 2: Warriors 122, Cavaliers 103
Game 3: Cavaliers 102, Warriors 110
Game 4: In Cleveland, Sunday (Monday morning UAE)
