US officials are preparing for a meeting aimed at formulating a new nuclear deal with Iran, but those involved in structuring the previous agreement say the situation is fundamentally different from the first time talks took place.
In 2018, during his first term in office, President Donald Trump withdrew the US from a deal struck by former president Barack Obama's administration and world powers, which put limits on Iran's nuclear programme in exchange for sanctions relief. But shortly after returning to the White House this year, Mr Trump announced he had reached out to Iranian leadership about a new deal.
Richard Nephew, a senior research scholar at Columbia University who was involved in negotiating the original nuclear deal, said the odds of an agreement are “much lower” this time around.
“I was the only member of the team who was convinced that we were going to get a deal – basically the entire time, I never went below 50 per cent,” Mr Nephew told The National, explaining that the previous negotiations had the benefit of starting with a clean slate. “We didn't have years of bad blood having built up, but we do now, and particularly with this president, and in particular with an Iranian system that didn't fully believe that we would commit to a deal in the first place.”
Mr Trump has had a contentious relationship with Iran. After pulling out of the original deal, he instituted a “maximum pressure” sanctions campaign against Tehran, which he reinstituted soon after taking office.
He also ordered the killing of Qassem Suleimani, commander of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' Quds Force, in Baghdad in 2020. And even after announcing his desire for a new nuclear deal, he has engaged in incendiary rhetoric against Tehran, including saying “there will be bombing” and that it will be a “very bad day for Iran” if talks do not ultimately result in an agreement.
This mistrust is only one of several obstacles facing the teams heading into the talks in Oman.
Gary Samore, the director of the Crown Centre for Middle East Studies at Brandeis University and a member of the team involved in forming the framework of the original deal, said that Mr Obama built up an international coalition – known as the P5+1 that also included China, France, Russia, the UK and Germany – to engage with Iran. Mr Trump, however, has alienated many allies since coming back to power.
“Trump is feuding with the Europeans. He wants to improve ties with Russia, but a ceasefire in Ukraine is elusive. We're entering into a big trade war with China – so the big powers are not lined up to co-operate on Iran,” Mr Samore told The National. “And I think that gives Iran a little bit more latitude, or makes them feel like they're less isolated internationally.”
Russia and China were previously “genuine partners” with the US in wanting to secure a deal, but that's no longer the case, according to Robert Einhorn, who was assistant secretary for nonproliferation in the Clinton administration and special adviser to the Secretary of State for nonproliferation and arms control in the Obama administration, and participated in the talks that led to the original agreement.
“Today is a fundamentally different situation. You have China and Russia having reached a strategic partnership with Iran – neither one of them will do anything to pressure Iran to accept the kind of deal that the US wants,” Mr Einhorn, currently a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, told The National.
In addition, there are concerns of mutual intransigence over the future of Iran's nuclear ambitions. The Trump administration has indicated it wants Iran to completely dismantle its programme, while Tehran, which has always insisted that the programme is for peaceful purposes, has rejected that. The previous deal allowed for some enrichment of uranium but with strict limits, to avoid the possibility of Iran possessing enough materials to build a nuclear weapon.
While Iran's nuclear programme has greatly expanded since the previous deal imploded, Tehran may feel more pressure to make a deal with the US, with its economy in tatters and its regional influence on the wane. Mr Samore pointed out that the Iranians also likely view Mr Trump's threat of use of force as more credible than under Mr Obama or his successor Joe Biden.
But for those involved in the formulation of the original agreement, the fear is that if the US does not have a strong team in place, the talks will come to nothing in the end, no matter how much both sides want a deal.
“Of course, there are still nuclear experts and sanctions experts in the US government,” Mr Samore said “But there has been a loss of talent … Biden brought in people that were outside the JCPOA, so I think there's talent there, but so far, I haven't seen any indication that [Middle East envoy Steve] Witkoff has put a team together, and I don't even know who would lead the US negotiations.”
Mr Nephew added that the recent drive by the Trump administration to cut down on government waste by carrying out mass firings of federal employees, some of whom could have contributed knowledge and experience to the negotiations.
“There's still civil servants and experts to the system who could contribute, sure there are,” he said. “But then, you know, it's not clear to me that they're using those people … So my own sense is that they don't really have the team capable to do a similar kind of deal as we got.”
Mr Einhorn also noted a general lack of cohesion in the Trump administration with regard to Iran. Despite the fact that Mr Trump has suggested there could be a military response if talks fail, Mr Einhorn believes the administration is motivated to hammer out a deal.
“I think the most important voice, of course, will be the President's voice and he seems inclined to give diplomacy a real chance,” he said.
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UAE players with central contracts
Rohan Mustafa, Ashfaq Ahmed, Chirag Suri, Rameez Shahzad, Shaiman Anwar, Adnan Mufti, Mohammed Usman, Ghulam Shabbir, Ahmed Raza, Qadeer Ahmed, Amir Hayat, Mohammed Naveed and Imran Haider.
GULF MEN'S LEAGUE
Pool A Dubai Hurricanes, Bahrain, Dubai Exiles, Dubai Tigers 2
Pool B Abu Dhabi Harlequins, Jebel Ali Dragons, Dubai Knights Eagles, Dubai Tigers
Opening fixtures
Thursday, December 5
6.40pm, Pitch 8, Abu Dhabi Harlequins v Dubai Knights Eagles
7pm, Pitch 2, Jebel Ali Dragons v Dubai Tigers
7pm, Pitch 4, Dubai Hurricanes v Dubai Exiles
7pm, Pitch 5, Bahrain v Dubai Eagles 2
Recent winners
2018 Dubai Hurricanes
2017 Dubai Exiles
2016 Abu Dhabi Harlequins
2015 Abu Dhabi Harlequins
2014 Abu Dhabi Harlequins
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cylturbo
Transmission: seven-speed DSG automatic
Power: 242bhp
Torque: 370Nm
Price: Dh136,814
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Defence review at a glance
• Increase defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027 but given “turbulent times it may be necessary to go faster”
• Prioritise a shift towards working with AI and autonomous systems
• Invest in the resilience of military space systems.
• Number of active reserves should be increased by 20%
• More F-35 fighter jets required in the next decade
• New “hybrid Navy” with AUKUS submarines and autonomous vessels
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UAE v Gibraltar
What: International friendly
When: 7pm kick off
Where: Rugby Park, Dubai Sports City
Admission: Free
Online: The match will be broadcast live on Dubai Exiles’ Facebook page
UAE squad: Lucas Waddington (Dubai Exiles), Gio Fourie (Exiles), Craig Nutt (Abu Dhabi Harlequins), Phil Brady (Harlequins), Daniel Perry (Dubai Hurricanes), Esekaia Dranibota (Harlequins), Matt Mills (Exiles), Jaen Botes (Exiles), Kristian Stinson (Exiles), Murray Reason (Abu Dhabi Saracens), Dave Knight (Hurricanes), Ross Samson (Jebel Ali Dragons), DuRandt Gerber (Exiles), Saki Naisau (Dragons), Andrew Powell (Hurricanes), Emosi Vacanau (Harlequins), Niko Volavola (Dragons), Matt Richards (Dragons), Luke Stevenson (Harlequins), Josh Ives (Dubai Sports City Eagles), Sean Stevens (Saracens), Thinus Steyn (Exiles)
Specs
Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh158,000 (Cooper), Dh168,000 (Aceman), Dh190,000 (Countryman)
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BUNDESLIGA FIXTURES
Saturday
Borussia Dortmund v Eintracht Frankfurt (5.30pm kick-off UAE)
Bayer Leverkusen v Schalke (5.30pm)
Wolfsburg v Cologne (5.30pm)
Mainz v Arminia Bielefeld (5.30pm)
Augsburg v Hoffenheim (5.30pm)
RB Leipzig v Bayern Munich (8.30pm)
Borussia Monchengladbach v Freiburg (10.30pm)
Sunday
VfB Stuttgart v Werder Bremen (5.30pm)
Union Berlin v Hertha Berlin (8pm)
Tonight's Chat on The National
Tonight's Chat is a series of online conversations on The National. The series features a diverse range of celebrities, politicians and business leaders from around the Arab world.
Tonight’s Chat host Ricardo Karam is a renowned author and broadcaster who has previously interviewed Bill Gates, Carlos Ghosn, Andre Agassi and the late Zaha Hadid, among others.
Intellectually curious and thought-provoking, Tonight’s Chat moves the conversation forward.
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Our legal consultant
Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
The biog
Family: He is the youngest of five brothers, of whom two are dentists.
Celebrities he worked on: Fabio Canavaro, Lojain Omran, RedOne, Saber Al Rabai.
Where he works: Liberty Dental Clinic
New schools in Dubai
MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
Winners
Best Men's Player of the Year: Kylian Mbappe (PSG)
Maradona Award for Best Goal Scorer of the Year: Robert Lewandowski (Bayern Munich)
TikTok Fans’ Player of the Year: Robert Lewandowski
Top Goal Scorer of All Time: Cristiano Ronaldo (Manchester United)
Best Women's Player of the Year: Alexia Putellas (Barcelona)
Best Men's Club of the Year: Chelsea
Best Women's Club of the Year: Barcelona
Best Defender of the Year: Leonardo Bonucci (Juventus/Italy)
Best Goalkeeper of the Year: Gianluigi Donnarumma (PSG/Italy)
Best Coach of the Year: Roberto Mancini (Italy)
Best National Team of the Year: Italy
Best Agent of the Year: Federico Pastorello
Best Sporting Director of the Year: Txiki Begiristain (Manchester City)
Player Career Award: Ronaldinho
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MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League last 16, second leg
Liverpool (0) v Atletico Madrid (1)
Venue: Anfield
Kick-off: Thursday, March 12, midnight
Live: On beIN Sports HD
UAE Team Emirates
Valerio Conti (ITA)
Alessandro Covi (ITA)
Joe Dombrowski (USA)
Davide Formolo (ITA)
Fernando Gaviria (COL)
Sebastian Molano (COL)
Maximiliano Richeze (ARG)
Diego Ulissi (ITAS)
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WOMAN AND CHILD
Director: Saeed Roustaee
Starring: Parinaz Izadyar, Payman Maadi
Rating: 4/5
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Men's football draw
Group A: UAE, Spain, South Africa, Jamaica
Group B: Bangladesh, Serbia, Korea
Group C: Bharat, Denmark, Kenya, USA
Group D: Oman, Austria, Rwanda
Analysis
Maros Sefcovic is juggling multiple international trade agreement files, but his message was clear when he spoke to The National on Wednesday.
The EU-UAE bilateral trade deal will be finalised soon, he said. It is in everyone’s interests to do so. Both sides want to move quickly and are in alignment. He said the UAE is a very important partner for the EU. It’s full speed ahead - and with some lofty ambitions - on the road to a free trade agreement.
We also talked about US-EU tariffs. He answered that both sides need to talk more and more often, but he is prepared to defend Europe's position and said diplomacy should be a guiding principle through the current moment.
SEMI-FINAL
Monterrey 1
Funes Mori (14)
Liverpool 2
Keita (11), Firmino (90 1)
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups
Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.
Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.
Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.
Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, (Leon banned).
Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.
Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.
Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.
Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.
BORDERLANDS
Starring: Cate Blanchett, Kevin Hart, Jamie Lee Curtis
Director: Eli Roth
Rating: 0/5
