The International Monetary Fund on Friday lowered its growth forecast for the Middle East and North Africa this year, largely reflecting a slowdown in Saudi Arabia's economy due to Opec+ production cuts.
The broader Mena economy is projected to grow by 3.5 per cent this year, according to the IMF's latest World Economic Outlook, half a percentage point down from its October update.
Saudi Arabia, the biggest Arab economy and Opec’s top oil producer, is forecast to grow by 3.3 per cent in 2025, a downwards revision of 1.3 percentage points. Its economy is projected to grow by 4.1 per cent in 2026, which is down by 0.3 percentage points from the fund's October forecast.
Largely accounting for this revision is the Opec+ voluntary production cuts. Eight members of the Opec+ oil producers group agreed in December to extend their voluntary cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day of crude production until March this year before gradually phasing them out until the end of September 2026.
US growth carries global activity
The downwards revision in the Middle East economic forecast is also reflective of a broader trend in the global economy this year, one dominated by diverging growth prospects amid a high degree of policy uncertainty.
“Overall, we're seeing global economy realigning with potential output. So this is the end of a very unusual sequence and the beginning of a new one,” IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told reporters.
Altogether, global growth is set to maintain a steady 3.3 per cent expansion pace this year and next. At the same time, inflation is expected to continue on the downwards trajectory, to 4.2 per cent by the end of 2025 and 3.5 per cent at the close of 2026.
Driving much of the world's economic activity is the US, where GDP is set to pick up by 2.7 per cent in 2025, half a percentage point higher than the IMF's previous forecast.
The strong 2024 performance – along with a robust labour market and accelerating investment – also accounted for the IMF’s latest upgrade for the US economic forecast.
“We have stronger demand in the US, weaker demand in other parts of the world, but some of it is structural, especially when you look at the US versus the euro area,” Mr Gourinchas said.
Greater uncertainty and weaker-than-expected manufacturing momentum towards the end of last year caused a downwards shift in the IMF's forecast for the euro area, which now projects its economy to grow by 1 per cent in 2025, 0.2 percentage points lower than its October projection.
China's economy, which received a slight upgrade, is now projected to climb by 4.6 per cent in 2025, while growth in other emerging market and developing economies is largely expected to match the 2024 levels. India's economy is projected to grow at a solid 6.5 per cent pace in 2025 and 2026, in line with the IMF's previous forecast.
The Washington-based lender expects growth in sub-Saharan Africa to increase in 2025, while economies in emerging and developing Europe are set to slow down.
Policy uncertainty
The world is facing a heightened degree of policy uncertainty this year after a historic year in which about half of the world voted in elections. While the euro area and China face downside risks, Mr Gourinchas said the scenario “is a bit more complex” in the US.
The fund said it did not factor potential policy changes into its baseline projections because they have yet to be implemented.
“But we have to think about them and they could affect the trajectory for the global economy,” Mr Gourinchas said.
Possibly the greatest policy uncertainty surrounds that of Donald Trump, who is set to begin his second term as US president next week.
Mr Trump, during the run-up to the 2024 elections, promised that he would impose a sweeping set of tariffs on trading partners plus an extra levy on China, increase deportation of migrants, extend parts of his tax cuts that are set to expire this year and usher in a new era of deregulation.
“All of these layers … have a common element. They tend to increase price pressures,” Mr Gourinchas said. “The bottom line here is that in the near term, the risk could increase the divergence between the US and the rest of the world, and is already under way now in terms of policies.”
Such diverging economic prospects could also deliver a divergence in central banks' monetary policy adjustments.
The Federal Reserve has already indicated it will slow the pace of rate cuts this year due to firmer inflation, while minutes released from the central bank's December meeting showed officials did factor in Mr Trump's policies to their economic forecast.
“There is a strengthening of the US currency that is increasing inflation pressures in other parts of the world, especially emerging market economies,” Mr Gourinchas said.
Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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1.
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United States
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2.
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China
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3.
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UAE
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4.
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Japan
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5
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Norway
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6.
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Canada
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7.
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Singapore
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8.
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Australia
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9.
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Saudi Arabia
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South Korea
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Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Zayed%20Centre%20for%20Research
%3Cp%3EThe%20Zayed%20Centre%20for%20Research%20is%20a%20partnership%20between%20Great%20Ormond%20Street%20Hospital%2C%20University%20College%20London%20and%20Great%20Ormond%20Street%20Hospital%20Children%E2%80%99s%20Charity%20and%20was%20made%20possible%20thanks%20to%20a%20generous%20%C2%A360%20million%20gift%20in%202014%20from%20Sheikha%20Fatima%20bint%20Mubarak%2C%20Chairwoman%20of%20the%20General%20Women's%20Union%2C%20President%20of%20the%20Supreme%20Council%20for%20Motherhood%20and%20Childhood%2C%20and%20Supreme%20Chairwoman%20of%20the%20Family%20Development%20Foundation.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups
Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.
Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.
Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.
Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, Leon.
Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.
Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.
Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.
Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.
Gothia Cup 2025
4,872 matches
1,942 teams
116 pitches
76 nations
26 UAE teams
15 Lebanese teams
2 Kuwaiti teams
US tops drug cost charts
The study of 13 essential drugs showed costs in the United States were about 300 per cent higher than the global average, followed by Germany at 126 per cent and 122 per cent in the UAE.
Thailand, Kenya and Malaysia were rated as nations with the lowest costs, about 90 per cent cheaper.
In the case of insulin, diabetic patients in the US paid five and a half times the global average, while in the UAE the costs are about 50 per cent higher than the median price of branded and generic drugs.
Some of the costliest drugs worldwide include Lipitor for high cholesterol.
The study’s price index placed the US at an exorbitant 2,170 per cent higher for Lipitor than the average global price and the UAE at the eighth spot globally with costs 252 per cent higher.
High blood pressure medication Zestril was also more than 2,680 per cent higher in the US and the UAE price was 187 per cent higher than the global price.
Dubai works towards better air quality by 2021
Dubai is on a mission to record good air quality for 90 per cent of the year – up from 86 per cent annually today – by 2021.
The municipality plans to have seven mobile air-monitoring stations by 2020 to capture more accurate data in hourly and daily trends of pollution.
These will be on the Palm Jumeirah, Al Qusais, Muhaisnah, Rashidiyah, Al Wasl, Al Quoz and Dubai Investment Park.
“It will allow real-time responding for emergency cases,” said Khaldoon Al Daraji, first environment safety officer at the municipality.
“We’re in a good position except for the cases that are out of our hands, such as sandstorms.
“Sandstorms are our main concern because the UAE is just a receiver.
“The hotspots are Iran, Saudi Arabia and southern Iraq, but we’re working hard with the region to reduce the cycle of sandstorm generation.”
Mr Al Daraji said monitoring as it stood covered 47 per cent of Dubai.
There are 12 fixed stations in the emirate, but Dubai also receives information from monitors belonging to other entities.
“There are 25 stations in total,” Mr Al Daraji said.
“We added new technology and equipment used for the first time for the detection of heavy metals.
“A hundred parameters can be detected but we want to expand it to make sure that the data captured can allow a baseline study in some areas to ensure they are well positioned.”
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
How to apply for a drone permit
- Individuals must register on UAE Drone app or website using their UAE Pass
- Add all their personal details, including name, nationality, passport number, Emiratis ID, email and phone number
- Upload the training certificate from a centre accredited by the GCAA
- Submit their request
What are the regulations?
- Fly it within visual line of sight
- Never over populated areas
- Ensure maximum flying height of 400 feet (122 metres) above ground level is not crossed
- Users must avoid flying over restricted areas listed on the UAE Drone app
- Only fly the drone during the day, and never at night
- Should have a live feed of the drone flight
- Drones must weigh 5 kg or less
Company%20profile
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In Search of Mary Shelley: The Girl Who Wrote Frankenstein
By Fiona Sampson
Profile
SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20APPLE%20IPAD%20PRO%20(12.9%22%2C%202022)
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GOLF’S RAHMBO
- 5 wins in 22 months as pro
- Three wins in past 10 starts
- 45 pro starts worldwide: 5 wins, 17 top 5s
- Ranked 551th in world on debut, now No 4 (was No 2 earlier this year)
- 5th player in last 30 years to win 3 European Tour and 2 PGA Tour titles before age 24 (Woods, Garcia, McIlroy, Spieth)
'Brazen'
Director: Monika Mitchell
Starring: Alyssa Milano, Sam Page, Colleen Wheeler
Rating: 3/5
The Settlers
Director: Louis Theroux
Starring: Daniella Weiss, Ari Abramowitz
Rating: 5/5
Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
BMW M5 specs
Engine: 4.4-litre twin-turbo V-8 petrol enging with additional electric motor
Power: 727hp
Torque: 1,000Nm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 10.6L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh650,000
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
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OPINIONS ON PALESTINE & ISRAEL
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Results
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F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
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UAE v Gibraltar
What: International friendly
When: 7pm kick off
Where: Rugby Park, Dubai Sports City
Admission: Free
Online: The match will be broadcast live on Dubai Exiles’ Facebook page
UAE squad: Lucas Waddington (Dubai Exiles), Gio Fourie (Exiles), Craig Nutt (Abu Dhabi Harlequins), Phil Brady (Harlequins), Daniel Perry (Dubai Hurricanes), Esekaia Dranibota (Harlequins), Matt Mills (Exiles), Jaen Botes (Exiles), Kristian Stinson (Exiles), Murray Reason (Abu Dhabi Saracens), Dave Knight (Hurricanes), Ross Samson (Jebel Ali Dragons), DuRandt Gerber (Exiles), Saki Naisau (Dragons), Andrew Powell (Hurricanes), Emosi Vacanau (Harlequins), Niko Volavola (Dragons), Matt Richards (Dragons), Luke Stevenson (Harlequins), Josh Ives (Dubai Sports City Eagles), Sean Stevens (Saracens), Thinus Steyn (Exiles)
