Senior US politicians are worried that a Turkish invasion of Syria's north-east region is imminent and are indicating they are prepared to impose sanctions on Washington's Nato ally.
Republican Senator John Kennedy warned that he is concerned Turkey would invade Syria as the country works to rebuild after opposition forces removed Bashar Al Assad's regime after 13 years of war. Mr Kennedy delivered a speech on the Senate floor this week declaring to Ankara: “Leave the Kurds alone … don't do it.”
Washington has maintained a relatively limited troop presence in Syria, and on Thursday announced the Pentagon had doubled its presence from about 900 to 2,000 soldiers, in partnership with the Syrian Democratic Forces for their anti-ISIS mission. Turkey has accused the Kurdish-led forces of being terrorists.
“If you invade Syria and touch a hair on the head of the Kurds, I'm going to ask this United States Congress to do something,” Mr Kennedy continued. “And our sanctions are not going to help the economy of Turkey. I don't want to do that.”
Leading senators from both parties – Democrat Chris Van Hollen and Republican Lindsey Graham – this week threatened sanctions against Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan if Ankara-backed forces do not achieve a ceasefire deal with the Kurds in north-east Syria.
The senators accused Turkey of refusing “to extend the ceasefire, including an offer for a demilitarised zone along the border, particularly the city of Kobani”.
“While Turkey has some legitimate security concerns that can be addressed, these developments are undermining regional security and the United States cannot sit idly by,” Mr Van Hollen and Mr Graham wrote in a statement.
“In the wake of the Assad regime’s fall, Turkish-backed forces have ramped up attacks against our Syrian-Kurdish partners, once again threatening the vital mission of preventing the resurgence of ISIS.”
US sanctions could have real implications for Ankara, said Yerevan Saeed, director of the Global Kurdish Initiative for Peace at the American University in Washington.
“The Turkish economy is not doing well. Inflation is very, very high. The lira has been declining. So the hope by the senators, by people in Washington DC, the policymakers, is that these sanctions are going to deter President Erdogan from invading Rojava,” he told The National.
“Whether that's going to stop Turkey or not is really unknown.”
Mr Saeed said the “Kurds are very, very concerned, not just from the leadership level, but also the people and the public” about Turkey moving into Syria. But some doubt whether Turkish military action is an imminent threat.
Mouaz Moustafa, executive director of the Washington-based Syrian Emergency Task Force, recently returned from Damascus where he was searching for American detainee Austin Tice.
“People may be blowing things out of proportion by calling on sanctions to a Nato ally when we haven't seen any major military operations by Turkey in north-east Syria," he said.
This week, Turkey appointed an interim charge d'affaires to run its embassy in Damascus, after Ankara's intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin visited the Syrian capital.
Mr Moustafa said such shows of engagement are going to be critical in building stability in Syria, including in the north-east.
“I think it all goes back to the new Damascus government. Are they going to be able to cut some sort of deal with the SDF, YPG [Kurdish People's Defence Units], PKK [Kurdistan Workers' Party] elements, and ensure the security and stability of north-east Syria, alongside the rest of the country and making sure that there are no crimes against the Kurds or any other part of the Syrian mosaic,” he told The National.
Mr Saeed said, however, that Turkish troops are not on the border “to have a picnic”.
But he also stressed: “Turkey has a very historic opportunity to reconcile with the Kurds in Syria, in the same way … President Erdogan was able to change the Turkish policy towards the Kurds in Iraq. It will be a really win-win situation for everyone. There will be lots of opportunity for the Turkish companies to come and invest in Rojava, instead of making these military threats, which will be destabilising.”
The incoming government in Washington could further complicate the US stance towards Syria and Turkey.
President-elect Donald Trump, who assumes power next month and has indicated a more hands-off approach to Syria, called the removal of Mr Al Assad an “unfriendly takeover” orchestrated by Turkey.
“I think Turkey is very smart … Turkey did an unfriendly takeover, without a lot of lives being lost. I can say that Assad was a butcher, what he did to children,” the Republican added.
Mr Trump has cast doubt on Washington's small presence in Syria, and tried to withdraw completely during his first presidency.
Mr Saeed told The National that such a move would be unwise: “The value of the US and the western countries are getting is really high and huge, because the US troops are there for intelligence and also provide the support for the Kurdish fighters … If the US would withdraw, of course, that would that will pave the way for ISIS to return."
Others have called for a rethink of Washington's anti-ISIS mission after the fall of the Assad regime, including former US ambassador to Damascus, Robert Ford.
“YPG-led forces have failed to achieve the enduring defeat of ISIS. After six years, time for an American rethink of strategy,” Mr Ford wrote in a post on X in response to the senators' sanctions threat.
Reuters quoted Turkish Defence Minister Yasar Guler as saying that “in the new period, the PKK/YPG terrorist organisation in Syria will be eliminated sooner or later”.
Contrary to Washington's assessment, Mr Guler said Turkey saw no sign of a resurgence of ISIS in Syria.
For Mr Moustafa, international engagement with the new government is ultimately going to be critical for Syria and for US regional interests there.
“Syria isn't going to become a democracy overnight. But Syria is now the closest Arab country to a democracy than any other Arab country. That's a fact, and the promises of the government and their actions have really been reassuring,” he said.
“The new government in Damascus deserves the international community's support to help them on their way to becoming a democratic republic, not to continue to hear concern and calling all the Syrians terrorists when they have liberated their country from the terrorists themselves.”
On Thursday, the top Democrats on the Senate and House foreign affairs committees introduced a resolution that “underscores the importance of protecting religious and ethnic minorities, including Syrian Kurds, Yazidis and Chaldeans” in Syria, and called on the State Department to increase humanitarian aid.
The resolution notes that “Syrian opposition forces have repeatedly signalled their intent to respect the rights and dignity of religious and ethnic minorities in Syria, but there have been incidents of members of such minorities fleeing their homes, while there is documented violence and expulsions against Kurdish communities by elements of the Syrian National Army”.
