Allan Lichtman is reassessing his '13 keys' model after Donald Trump's victory ended the professor's streak of correctly predicting the outcome of every presidential election since 1984
Allan Lichtman is reassessing his '13 keys' model after Donald Trump's victory ended the professor's streak of correctly predicting the outcome of every presidential election since 1984
Allan Lichtman is reassessing his '13 keys' model after Donald Trump's victory ended the professor's streak of correctly predicting the outcome of every presidential election since 1984
Allan Lichtman is reassessing his '13 keys' model after Donald Trump's victory ended the professor's streak of correctly predicting the outcome of every presidential election since 1984

Election predictor Allan Lichtman explains wrong forecast amid Donald Trump's seismic victory


Cody Combs
  • English
  • Arabic

Latest updates: Follow our full coverage on the US election

Donald Trump's return to the White House has surprised many, but few were as shocked perhaps as Allan Lichtman, the famous professor of history who had accurately predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1984 using his “13 keys” system.

Two months before the November election, Prof Lichtman announced that his 13 keys, looking at various foreign policy and domestic issues, as well as other public mood indicators, showed Vice President Kamala Harris would be the 47th US president.

That prediction evaporated on Tuesday night, as it became clear Mr Trump was on his way to a victory. “Look, my prediction for this presidential election was wrong, I own up to it,” Prof Lichtman said in a short video posted to Instagram and X, a day after Mr Trump's victory.

Prof Lichtman explained he was taking time off to rest and said he would soon perform a postmortem examination on his prediction system. “My aim is to is to assess why the keys were wrong and what we can learn from this era,” he added.

On Thursday, a more energetic Prof Lichtman explained the changes he might need to make to his model to keep it relevant in the future.

“I was far from the only forecaster to be wrong,” he said during his live-stream show, referring to other pollsters and prediction models. “It's always possible that events could be so significant in a given election to change the pattern of history, and I think that's what happened here.”

Prof Lichtman noted the Democratic Party's public criticism of President Joe Biden following his disastrous debate against Mr Trump in June. “If you trash a sitting president so badly, that's going to taint anybody associated with that president,” he said, referring to Ms Harris.

The fact Ms Harris did not have to run in any primary meant it was difficult for him to decide whether to award her the “no contest” key. He added that his system relies on a pragmatic and rational electorate, and that perhaps the prolific amount of disinformation on social media meant voters might have become irrational and impractical, rendering the keys inaccurate.

“Over the next four years, I'll be looking closely at whether or not the fundamental premises still hold,” he said, noting that he was open to suggestions from others about how to improve the system.

Through his continuing YouTube live-streamed series of political science discussions, Prof Lichtman has not been shy about criticising Mr Trump over his policies and rhetoric. Yet Prof Lichtman has insisted repeatedly that he has never let his own personal political leanings or feelings affect his predictions, pointing out that he has predicted the victories of Republicans Ronald Reagan and George HW Bush. Prof Lichtman also unofficially consulted Mr Reagan’s re-election campaign back in 1984.

As interest in the 2024 presidential election cycle reached a feverish pitch several months ago, so too did the viewership of Prof Lichtman’s YouTube channel where he regularly provided updates on his 13 keys system as well as other musings on current events.

It currently has more than 160,000 subscribers, and his election night live-stream received 1.2 million cumulative views. That show, which lasted more than five hours, also saw the professor become increasingly alarmed by the election results that contradicted his prediction.

The usual discussion on the show between Prof Lichtman and his son, Sam, turned eerily quiet at times as they each tried to digest the results showing Mr Trump with a stronger than expected performance. “Good thing I have nothing to do tomorrow,” Prof Lichtman told viewers as his fatigue became clear and the vote count showed Mr Trump closing in on 270 electoral votes, the threshold needed to win.

Weeks before election night, Prof Lichtman said his prediction of a Harris win prompted vitriolic and threatening feedback from some people. He had never faced such angry political rhetoric in 40 years of predictions, he added.

“It has to do with the kind of toxic politics since the advent of Donald Trump. We had nothing like that before Donald Trump,” he said.

Donald Trump sent a signed note to presidential historian Allan Lichtman shortly after he correctly predicted a Trump victory before the 2016 election. Photo: Allan Lichtman
Donald Trump sent a signed note to presidential historian Allan Lichtman shortly after he correctly predicted a Trump victory before the 2016 election. Photo: Allan Lichtman

Interestingly enough, it was Prof Lichtman's 2016 prediction of a Trump victory, a prediction that went against many polls and pundit opinions at the time, that put him on the map and made him an international political media darling.

That prediction led to the American University professor doing hundreds of interviews with media outlets.

Earthquake origins of the 13 keys

Prof Lichtman's 13-keys model is the result of a similar model that was used to predict earthquakes.

“Vladimir Keilis-Borok and I collaborated,” he said, referring to the late Russian geophysicist with whom he struck up a friendship while at the California Institute of Technology.

“We were both distinguished visiting scholars and he had always wanted to use his earthquake methodology of pattern recognitions for politics, so he teamed up with me, an expert in American politics, the presidency and history, and we became the odd couple of American political research.”

Mr Keilis-Borok died in 2013, but his ideas live on with the current discussion of the 13-keys predictive model.

As for Prof Lichtman, it is not all politics all of the time for the distinguished scholar and political science celebrity. He is also an avid distance runner and has written several books.

In 1981, he also had a series of victories on the popular US game show Tic Tac Dough, hosted by famous host and disc jockey, Wink Martindale.

Explained: Lichtman's 13 keys to the White House

  1. Party mandate: After the midterm elections the incumbent party holds more seats in the US House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections.
  2. Contest: The candidate is nominated on the first ballot and wins at least two thirds of the delegate votes.
  3. Incumbency: The sitting president is the party candidate.
  4. Third party: A third-party candidate wins at least 5 per cent of the popular vote.
  5. Short-term economy: The National Bureau of Economic Research has either not declared a recession, or has declared it over before the election.
  6. Long-term economy: Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds the mean growth during the previous two terms.
  7. Policy change: The administration achieves a major policy change during the term comparable to the New Deal or the first-term Reagan Revolution.
  8. Social unrest: There is no social unrest during the term that is comparable to the upheavals of the post-civil war Reconstruction or of the 1960s, and is sustained or raises deep concerns about the unravelling of society.
  9. Scandal: There is no broad recognition of a scandal that directly touches upon the president
  10. Foreign or military failure: There is no major failure during the term comparable to Pearl Harbor or the Iran hostage crisis that appears to significantly undermine America's national interests or threaten its standing in the world.
  11. Foreign or military success: There is a major success during the term comparable to the winning of the Second World War or the Camp David Accords that significantly advances America's national interests or its standing in the world.
  12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is a national hero comparable to Ulysses Grant or Dwight Eisenhower or is an inspirational candidate comparable to Franklin Roosevelt or Ronald Reagan.
  13. Challenger charisma: The challenger party candidate is not a national hero comparable to Ulysses Grant or Dwight Eisenhower and is not an inspirational candidate comparable to Franklin Roosevelt or Ronald Reagan.

– Source: Allan Lichtman, The Thirteen Keys to the Presidency

Key facilities
  • Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
  • Premier League-standard football pitch
  • 400m Olympic running track
  • NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
  • 600-seat auditorium
  • Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
  • An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
  • Specialist robotics and science laboratories
  • AR and VR-enabled learning centres
  • Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
KEY%20DATES%20IN%20AMAZON'S%20HISTORY
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Bullet%20Train
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20David%20Leitch%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Brad%20Pitt%2C%20Aaron%20Taylor-Johnson%2C%20Brian%20Tyree%20Henry%2C%20Sandra%20Bullock%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Alaan%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202021%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Parthi%20Duraisamy%20and%20Karun%20Kurien%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20FinTech%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%247%20million%20raised%20in%20total%20%E2%80%94%20%242.5%20million%20in%20a%20seed%20round%20and%20%244.5%20million%20in%20a%20pre-series%20A%20round%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs

Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo

Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm

Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm

Transmission: 9-speed auto

Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km

On sale: Now

Price: From Dh117,059

The specs
  • Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
  • Power: 640hp
  • Torque: 760nm
  • On sale: 2026
  • Price: Not announced yet
Why your domicile status is important

Your UK residence status is assessed using the statutory residence test. While your residence status – ie where you live - is assessed every year, your domicile status is assessed over your lifetime.

Your domicile of origin generally comes from your parents and if your parents were not married, then it is decided by your father. Your domicile is generally the country your father considered his permanent home when you were born. 

UK residents who have their permanent home ("domicile") outside the UK may not have to pay UK tax on foreign income. For example, they do not pay tax on foreign income or gains if they are less than £2,000 in the tax year and do not transfer that gain to a UK bank account.

A UK-domiciled person, however, is liable for UK tax on their worldwide income and gains when they are resident in the UK.

Volvo ES90 Specs

Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)

Power: 333hp, 449hp, 680hp

Torque: 480Nm, 670Nm, 870Nm

On sale: Later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on region

Price: Exact regional pricing TBA

Specs

Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request

ELIO

Starring: Yonas Kibreab, Zoe Saldana, Brad Garrett

Directors: Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, Adrian Molina

Rating: 4/5

Conflict, drought, famine

Estimates of the number of deaths caused by the famine range from 400,000 to 1 million, according to a document prepared for the UK House of Lords in 2024.
It has been claimed that the policies of the Ethiopian government, which took control after deposing Emperor Haile Selassie in a military-led revolution in 1974, contributed to the scale of the famine.
Dr Miriam Bradley, senior lecturer in humanitarian studies at the University of Manchester, has argued that, by the early 1980s, “several government policies combined to cause, rather than prevent, a famine which lasted from 1983 to 1985. Mengistu’s government imposed Stalinist-model agricultural policies involving forced collectivisation and villagisation [relocation of communities into planned villages].
The West became aware of the catastrophe through a series of BBC News reports by journalist Michael Buerk in October 1984 describing a “biblical famine” and containing graphic images of thousands of people, including children, facing starvation.

Band Aid

Bob Geldof, singer with the Irish rock group The Boomtown Rats, formed Band Aid in response to the horrific images shown in the news broadcasts.
With Midge Ure of the band Ultravox, he wrote the hit charity single Do They Know it’s Christmas in December 1984, featuring a string of high-profile musicians.
Following the single’s success, the idea to stage a rock concert evolved.
Live Aid was a series of simultaneous concerts that took place at Wembley Stadium in London, John F Kennedy Stadium in Philadelphia, the US, and at various other venues across the world.
The combined event was broadcast to an estimated worldwide audience of 1.5 billion.

How%20to%20avoid%20getting%20scammed
%3Cul%3E%0A%3Cli%3ENever%20click%20on%20links%20provided%20via%20app%20or%20SMS%2C%20even%20if%20they%20seem%20to%20come%20from%20authorised%20senders%20at%20first%20glance%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EAlways%20double-check%20the%20authenticity%20of%20websites%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EEnable%20Two-Factor%20Authentication%20(2FA)%20for%20all%20your%20working%20and%20personal%20services%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EOnly%20use%20official%20links%20published%20by%20the%20respective%20entity%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EDouble-check%20the%20web%20addresses%20to%20reduce%20exposure%20to%20fake%20sites%20created%20with%20domain%20names%20containing%20spelling%20errors%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3C%2Ful%3E%0A
F1 The Movie

Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem

Director: Joseph Kosinski

Rating: 4/5

When Umm Kulthum performed in Abu Dhabi

  

 

 

 

Known as The Lady of Arabic Song, Umm Kulthum performed in Abu Dhabi on November 28, 1971, as part of celebrations for the fifth anniversary of the accession of Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan as Ruler of Abu Dhabi. A concert hall was constructed for the event on land that is now Al Nahyan Stadium, behind Al Wahda Mall. The audience were treated to many of Kulthum's most well-known songs as part of the sold-out show, including Aghadan Alqak and Enta Omri.

 
'Ashkal'
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Youssef%20Chebbi%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Fatma%20Oussaifi%20and%20Mohamed%20Houcine%20Grayaa%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Call of Duty: Black Ops 6

Developer: Treyarch, Raven Software
Publisher:  Activision
Console: PlayStation 4 & 5, Windows, Xbox One & Series X/S
Rating: 3.5/5

UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The candidates

Dr Ayham Ammora, scientist and business executive

Ali Azeem, business leader

Tony Booth, professor of education

Lord Browne, former BP chief executive

Dr Mohamed El-Erian, economist

Professor Wyn Evans, astrophysicist

Dr Mark Mann, scientist

Gina MIller, anti-Brexit campaigner

Lord Smith, former Cabinet minister

Sandi Toksvig, broadcaster

 

World Sevens Series standing after Dubai

1. South Africa
2. New Zealand
3. England
4. Fiji
5. Australia
6. Samoa
7. Kenya
8. Scotland
9. France
10. Spain
11. Argentina
12. Canada
13. Wales
14. Uganda
15. United States
16. Russia

The biog

Age: 59

From: Giza Governorate, Egypt

Family: A daughter, two sons and wife

Favourite tree: Ghaf

Runner up favourite tree: Frankincense 

Favourite place on Sir Bani Yas Island: “I love all of Sir Bani Yas. Every spot of Sir Bani Yas, I love it.”

The White Lotus: Season three

Creator: Mike White

Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell

Rating: 4.5/5

Profile

Company name: Marefa Digital

Based: Dubai Multi Commodities Centre

Number of employees: seven

Sector: e-learning

Funding stage: Pre-seed funding of Dh1.5m in 2017 and an initial seed round of Dh2m in 2019

Investors: Friends and family 

RACE RESULTS

1. Valtteri Bottas (FIN/Mercedes) 1hr 21min 48.527sec
2. Sebastian Vettel (GER/Ferrari) at 0.658sec
3. Daniel Ricciardo (AUS/Red Bull) 6.012 
4. Lewis Hamilton (GBR/Mercedes) 7.430
5. Kimi Räikkönen (FIN/Ferrari) 20.370
6. Romain Grosjean (FRA/Haas) 1:13.160
7. Sergio Pérez (MEX/Force India) 1 lap
8. Esteban Ocon (FRA/Force India) 1 lap
9. Felipe Massa (BRA/Williams) 1 lap
10. Lance Stroll (CAN/Williams) 1 lap
11. Jolyon Palmer (GBR/Renault) 1 lap
12. Stoffel Vandoorne (BEL/McLaren) 1 lap
13. Nico Hülkenberg (GER/Renault) 1 lap
14. Pascal Wehrlein (GER/Sauber) 1 lap
15. Marcus Ericsson (SWE/Sauber) 2 laps
16. Daniil Kvyat (RUS/Toro Rosso) 3 laps

The biog

Favourite colour: Brown

Favourite Movie: Resident Evil

Hobbies: Painting, Cooking, Imitating Voices

Favourite food: Pizza

Trivia: Was the voice of three characters in the Emirati animation, Shaabiyat Al Cartoon

Titanium Escrow profile

Started: December 2016
Founder: Ibrahim Kamalmaz
Based: UAE
Sector: Finance / legal
Size: 3 employees, pre-revenue  
Stage: Early stage
Investors: Founder's friends and Family

Company%20profile
%3Cp%3EName%3A%20Cashew%0D%3Cbr%3EStarted%3A%202020%0D%3Cbr%3EFounders%3A%20Ibtissam%20Ouassif%20and%20Ammar%20Afif%0D%3Cbr%3EBased%3A%20Dubai%2C%20UAE%0D%3Cbr%3EIndustry%3A%20FinTech%0D%3Cbr%3EFunding%20size%3A%20%2410m%0D%3Cbr%3EInvestors%3A%20Mashreq%2C%20others%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
What can victims do?

Always use only regulated platforms

Stop all transactions and communication on suspicion

Save all evidence (screenshots, chat logs, transaction IDs)

Report to local authorities

Warn others to prevent further harm

Courtesy: Crystal Intelligence

JOKE'S%20ON%20YOU
%3Cp%3EGoogle%20wasn't%20new%20to%20busting%20out%20April%20Fool's%20jokes%3A%20before%20the%20Gmail%20%22prank%22%2C%20it%20tricked%20users%20with%20%3Ca%20href%3D%22https%3A%2F%2Farchive.google%2Fmentalplex%2F%22%20target%3D%22_blank%22%3Emind-reading%20MentalPlex%20responses%3C%2Fa%3E%20and%20said%3Ca%20href%3D%22https%3A%2F%2Farchive.google%2Fpigeonrank%2F%22%20target%3D%22_blank%22%3E%20well-fed%20pigeons%20were%20running%20its%20search%20engine%20operations%3C%2Fa%3E%20.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EIn%20subsequent%20years%2C%20they%20announced%20home%20internet%20services%20through%20your%20toilet%20with%20its%20%22%3Ca%20href%3D%22https%3A%2F%2Farchive.google%2Ftisp%2Finstall.html%22%20target%3D%22_blank%22%3Epatented%20GFlush%20system%3C%2Fa%3E%22%2C%20made%20us%20believe%20the%20Moon's%20surface%20was%20made%20of%20cheese%20and%20unveiled%20a%20dating%20service%20in%20which%20they%20called%20founders%20Sergey%20Brin%20and%20Larry%20Page%20%22%3Ca%20href%3D%22https%3A%2F%2Farchive.google%2Fromance%2Fpress.html%22%20target%3D%22_blank%22%3EStanford%20PhD%20wannabes%3C%2Fa%3E%20%22.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EBut%20Gmail%20was%20all%20too%20real%2C%20purportedly%20inspired%20by%20one%20%E2%80%93%20a%20single%20%E2%80%93%20Google%20user%20complaining%20about%20the%20%22poor%20quality%20of%20existing%20email%20services%22%20and%20born%20%22%3Ca%20href%3D%22https%3A%2F%2Fgooglepress.blogspot.com%2F2004%2F04%2Fgoogle-gets-message-launches-gmail.html%22%20target%3D%22_blank%22%3Emillions%20of%20M%26amp%3BMs%20later%3C%2Fa%3E%22.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
A little about CVRL

Founded in 1985 by Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid, Vice President and Ruler of Dubai, the Central Veterinary Research Laboratory (CVRL) is a government diagnostic centre that provides testing and research facilities to the UAE and neighbouring countries.

One of its main goals is to provide permanent treatment solutions for veterinary related diseases. 

The taxidermy centre was established 12 years ago and is headed by Dr Ulrich Wernery. 

RACECARD

6pm: Al Maktoum Challenge Round-1 – Group 1 (PA) $50,000 (Dirt) 1,600m
6.35pm: Festival City Stakes – Conditions (TB) $60,000 (D) 1,200m
7.10pm: Dubai Racing Club Classic – Listed (TB) $100,000 (Turf) 2,410m
7.45pm: Jumeirah Classic Trial – Conditions (TB) $150,000 (T) 1,400m
8.20pm: Al Maktoum Challenge Round-1 – Group 2 (TB) $250,000 (D) 1,600m
8.55pm: Cape Verdi – Group 2 (TB) $180,000 (T) 1,600m
9.30pm: Dubai Dash – Listed (TB) $100,000 (T) 1,000m

Know your camel milk:
Flavour: Similar to goat’s milk, although less pungent. Vaguely sweet with a subtle, salty aftertaste.
Texture: Smooth and creamy, with a slightly thinner consistency than cow’s milk.
Use it: In your morning coffee, to add flavour to homemade ice cream and milk-heavy desserts, smoothies, spiced camel-milk hot chocolate.
Goes well with: chocolate and caramel, saffron, cardamom and cloves. Also works well with honey and dates.

Updated: November 08, 2024, 6:04 AM`