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Donald Trump's return to the White House has surprised many, but few were as shocked perhaps as Allan Lichtman, the famous professor of history who had accurately predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1984 using his “13 keys” system.
Two months before the November election, Prof Lichtman announced that his 13 keys, looking at various foreign policy and domestic issues, as well as other public mood indicators, showed Vice President Kamala Harris would be the 47th US president.
That prediction evaporated on Tuesday night, as it became clear Mr Trump was on his way to a victory. “Look, my prediction for this presidential election was wrong, I own up to it,” Prof Lichtman said in a short video posted to Instagram and X, a day after Mr Trump's victory.
Prof Lichtman explained he was taking time off to rest and said he would soon perform a postmortem examination on his prediction system. “My aim is to is to assess why the keys were wrong and what we can learn from this era,” he added.
On Thursday, a more energetic Prof Lichtman explained the changes he might need to make to his model to keep it relevant in the future.
“I was far from the only forecaster to be wrong,” he said during his live-stream show, referring to other pollsters and prediction models. “It's always possible that events could be so significant in a given election to change the pattern of history, and I think that's what happened here.”
Prof Lichtman noted the Democratic Party's public criticism of President Joe Biden following his disastrous debate against Mr Trump in June. “If you trash a sitting president so badly, that's going to taint anybody associated with that president,” he said, referring to Ms Harris.
The fact Ms Harris did not have to run in any primary meant it was difficult for him to decide whether to award her the “no contest” key. He added that his system relies on a pragmatic and rational electorate, and that perhaps the prolific amount of disinformation on social media meant voters might have become irrational and impractical, rendering the keys inaccurate.
“Over the next four years, I'll be looking closely at whether or not the fundamental premises still hold,” he said, noting that he was open to suggestions from others about how to improve the system.
Through his continuing YouTube live-streamed series of political science discussions, Prof Lichtman has not been shy about criticising Mr Trump over his policies and rhetoric. Yet Prof Lichtman has insisted repeatedly that he has never let his own personal political leanings or feelings affect his predictions, pointing out that he has predicted the victories of Republicans Ronald Reagan and George HW Bush. Prof Lichtman also unofficially consulted Mr Reagan’s re-election campaign back in 1984.
As interest in the 2024 presidential election cycle reached a feverish pitch several months ago, so too did the viewership of Prof Lichtman’s YouTube channel where he regularly provided updates on his 13 keys system as well as other musings on current events.
It currently has more than 160,000 subscribers, and his election night live-stream received 1.2 million cumulative views. That show, which lasted more than five hours, also saw the professor become increasingly alarmed by the election results that contradicted his prediction.
The usual discussion on the show between Prof Lichtman and his son, Sam, turned eerily quiet at times as they each tried to digest the results showing Mr Trump with a stronger than expected performance. “Good thing I have nothing to do tomorrow,” Prof Lichtman told viewers as his fatigue became clear and the vote count showed Mr Trump closing in on 270 electoral votes, the threshold needed to win.
Weeks before election night, Prof Lichtman said his prediction of a Harris win prompted vitriolic and threatening feedback from some people. He had never faced such angry political rhetoric in 40 years of predictions, he added.
“It has to do with the kind of toxic politics since the advent of Donald Trump. We had nothing like that before Donald Trump,” he said.
Interestingly enough, it was Prof Lichtman's 2016 prediction of a Trump victory, a prediction that went against many polls and pundit opinions at the time, that put him on the map and made him an international political media darling.
That prediction led to the American University professor doing hundreds of interviews with media outlets.
Earthquake origins of the 13 keys
Prof Lichtman's 13-keys model is the result of a similar model that was used to predict earthquakes.
“Vladimir Keilis-Borok and I collaborated,” he said, referring to the late Russian geophysicist with whom he struck up a friendship while at the California Institute of Technology.
“We were both distinguished visiting scholars and he had always wanted to use his earthquake methodology of pattern recognitions for politics, so he teamed up with me, an expert in American politics, the presidency and history, and we became the odd couple of American political research.”
Mr Keilis-Borok died in 2013, but his ideas live on with the current discussion of the 13-keys predictive model.
As for Prof Lichtman, it is not all politics all of the time for the distinguished scholar and political science celebrity. He is also an avid distance runner and has written several books.
In 1981, he also had a series of victories on the popular US game show Tic Tac Dough, hosted by famous host and disc jockey, Wink Martindale.
Explained: Lichtman's 13 keys to the White House
- Party mandate: After the midterm elections the incumbent party holds more seats in the US House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections.
- Contest: The candidate is nominated on the first ballot and wins at least two thirds of the delegate votes.
- Incumbency: The sitting president is the party candidate.
- Third party: A third-party candidate wins at least 5 per cent of the popular vote.
- Short-term economy: The National Bureau of Economic Research has either not declared a recession, or has declared it over before the election.
- Long-term economy: Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds the mean growth during the previous two terms.
- Policy change: The administration achieves a major policy change during the term comparable to the New Deal or the first-term Reagan Revolution.
- Social unrest: There is no social unrest during the term that is comparable to the upheavals of the post-civil war Reconstruction or of the 1960s, and is sustained or raises deep concerns about the unravelling of society.
- Scandal: There is no broad recognition of a scandal that directly touches upon the president
- Foreign or military failure: There is no major failure during the term comparable to Pearl Harbor or the Iran hostage crisis that appears to significantly undermine America's national interests or threaten its standing in the world.
- Foreign or military success: There is a major success during the term comparable to the winning of the Second World War or the Camp David Accords that significantly advances America's national interests or its standing in the world.
- Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is a national hero comparable to Ulysses Grant or Dwight Eisenhower or is an inspirational candidate comparable to Franklin Roosevelt or Ronald Reagan.
- Challenger charisma: The challenger party candidate is not a national hero comparable to Ulysses Grant or Dwight Eisenhower and is not an inspirational candidate comparable to Franklin Roosevelt or Ronald Reagan.
– Source: Allan Lichtman, The Thirteen Keys to the Presidency
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Tips for job-seekers
- Do not submit your application through the Easy Apply button on LinkedIn. Employers receive between 600 and 800 replies for each job advert on the platform. If you are the right fit for a job, connect to a relevant person in the company on LinkedIn and send them a direct message.
- Make sure you are an exact fit for the job advertised. If you are an HR manager with five years’ experience in retail and the job requires a similar candidate with five years’ experience in consumer, you should apply. But if you have no experience in HR, do not apply for the job.
David Mackenzie, founder of recruitment agency Mackenzie Jones Middle East
On racial profiling at airports
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
When is VAR used?
• Goals
• Penalty decisions
• Direct red-card incidents
• Mistaken identity
UAE tour of Zimbabwe
All matches in Bulawayo
Friday, Sept 26 – UAE won by 36 runs
Sunday, Sept 28 – Second ODI
Tuesday, Sept 30 – Third ODI
Thursday, Oct 2 – Fourth ODI
Sunday, Oct 5 – First T20I
Monday, Oct 6 – Second T20I
French business
France has organised a delegation of leading businesses to travel to Syria. The group was led by French shipping giant CMA CGM, which struck a 30-year contract in May with the Syrian government to develop and run Latakia port. Also present were water and waste management company Suez, defence multinational Thales, and Ellipse Group, which is currently looking into rehabilitating Syrian hospitals.
What are the main cyber security threats?
Cyber crime - This includes fraud, impersonation, scams and deepfake technology, tactics that are increasingly targeting infrastructure and exploiting human vulnerabilities.
Cyber terrorism - Social media platforms are used to spread radical ideologies, misinformation and disinformation, often with the aim of disrupting critical infrastructure such as power grids.
Cyber warfare - Shaped by geopolitical tension, hostile actors seek to infiltrate and compromise national infrastructure, using one country’s systems as a springboard to launch attacks on others.
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Business Insights
- As per the document, there are six filing options, including choosing to report on a realisation basis and transitional rules for pre-tax period gains or losses.
- SMEs with revenue below Dh3 million per annum can opt for transitional relief until 2026, treating them as having no taxable income.
- Larger entities have specific provisions for asset and liability movements, business restructuring, and handling foreign permanent establishments.
WHAT IS A BLACK HOLE?
1. Black holes are objects whose gravity is so strong not even light can escape their pull
2. They can be created when massive stars collapse under their own weight
3. Large black holes can also be formed when smaller ones collide and merge
4. The biggest black holes lurk at the centre of many galaxies, including our own
5. Astronomers believe that when the universe was very young, black holes affected how galaxies formed
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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Day 1 results:
Open Men (bonus points in brackets)
New Zealand 125 (1) beat UAE 111 (3)
India 111 (4) beat Singapore 75 (0)
South Africa 66 (2) beat Sri Lanka 57 (2)
Australia 126 (4) beat Malaysia -16 (0)
Open Women
New Zealand 64 (2) beat South Africa 57 (2)
England 69 (3) beat UAE 63 (1)
Australia 124 (4) beat UAE 23 (0)
New Zealand 74 (2) beat England 55 (2)
Zayed Sustainability Prize
MO
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Global Fungi Facts
• Scientists estimate there could be as many as 3 million fungal species globally
• Only about 160,000 have been officially described leaving around 90% undiscovered
• Fungi account for roughly 90% of Earth's unknown biodiversity
• Forest fungi help tackle climate change, absorbing up to 36% of global fossil fuel emissions annually and storing around 5 billion tonnes of carbon in the planet's topsoil
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COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Mamo Year it started: 2019 Founders: Imad Gharazeddine, Asim Janjua Based: Dubai, UAE Number of employees: 28 Sector: Financial services Investment: $9.5m Funding stage: Pre-Series A Investors: Global Ventures, GFC, 4DX Ventures, AlRajhi Partners, Olive Tree Capital, and prominent Silicon Valley investors. How to tell if your child is being bullied at school
Sudden change in behaviour or displays higher levels of stress or anxiety
Shows signs of depression or isolation
Ability to sleep well diminishes
Academic performance begins to deteriorate
Changes in eating habits
Struggles to concentrate
Refuses to go to school
Behaviour changes and is aggressive towards siblings
Begins to use language they do not normally use
What drives subscription retailing?
Once the domain of newspaper home deliveries, subscription model retailing has combined with e-commerce to permeate myriad products and services.
The concept has grown tremendously around the world and is forecast to thrive further, according to UnivDatos Market Insights’ report on recent and predicted trends in the sector.
The global subscription e-commerce market was valued at $13.2 billion (Dh48.5bn) in 2018. It is forecast to touch $478.2bn in 2025, and include the entertainment, fitness, food, cosmetics, baby care and fashion sectors.
The report says subscription-based services currently constitute “a small trend within e-commerce”. The US hosts almost 70 per cent of recurring plan firms, including leaders Dollar Shave Club, Hello Fresh and Netflix. Walmart and Sephora are among longer established retailers entering the space.
UnivDatos cites younger and affluent urbanites as prime subscription targets, with women currently the largest share of end-users.
That’s expected to remain unchanged until 2025, when women will represent a $246.6bn market share, owing to increasing numbers of start-ups targeting women.
Personal care and beauty occupy the largest chunk of the worldwide subscription e-commerce market, with changing lifestyles, work schedules, customisation and convenience among the chief future drivers.
Seven tips from Emirates NBD
1. Never respond to e-mails, calls or messages asking for account, card or internet banking details
2. Never store a card PIN (personal identification number) in your mobile or in your wallet
3. Ensure online shopping websites are secure and verified before providing card details
4. Change passwords periodically as a precautionary measure
5. Never share authentication data such as passwords, card PINs and OTPs (one-time passwords) with third parties
6. Track bank notifications regarding transaction discrepancies
7. Report lost or stolen debit and credit cards immediately
Mane points for safe home colouring
- Natural and grey hair takes colour differently than chemically treated hair
- Taking hair from a dark to a light colour should involve a slow transition through warmer stages of colour
- When choosing a colour (especially a lighter tone), allow for a natural lift of warmth
- Most modern hair colours are technique-based, in that they require a confident hand and taught skills
- If you decide to be brave and go for it, seek professional advice and use a semi-permanent colour
Brief scores:
Southampton 2
Armstrong 13', Soares 20'
Manchester United 2
Lukaku 33', Herrera 39'
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
What can you do?
Document everything immediately; including dates, times, locations and witnesses
Seek professional advice from a legal expert
You can report an incident to HR or an immediate supervisor
You can use the Ministry of Human Resources and Emiratisation’s dedicated hotline
In criminal cases, you can contact the police for additional support
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Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
SERIES INFO
Schedule:
All matches at the Harare Sports Club
1st ODI, Wed Apr 10
2nd ODI, Fri Apr 12
3rd ODI, Sun Apr 14
4th ODI, Sun Apr 16
UAE squad
Mohammed Naveed (captain), Rohan Mustafa, Ashfaq Ahmed, Shaiman Anwar, Mohammed Usman, CP Rizwan, Chirag Suri, Mohammed Boota, Ghulam Shabber, Sultan Ahmed, Imran Haider, Amir Hayat, Zahoor Khan, Qadeer Ahmed
Zimbabwe squad
Peter Moor (captain), Solomon Mire, Brian Chari, Regis Chakabva, Sean Williams, Timycen Maruma, Sikandar Raza, Donald Tiripano, Kyle Jarvis, Tendai Chatara, Chris Mpofu, Craig Ervine, Brandon Mavuta, Ainsley Ndlovu, Tony Munyonga, Elton Chigumbura
SQUADS
South Africa:
JP Duminy (capt), Hashim Amla, Farhaan Behardien, Quinton de Kock (wkt), AB de Villiers, Robbie Frylinck, Beuran Hendricks, David Miller, Mangaliso Mosehle (wkt), Dane Paterson, Aaron Phangiso, Andile Phehlukwayo, Dwaine Pretorius, Tabraiz Shamsi
Bangladesh
Shakib Al Hasan (capt), Imrul Kayes, Liton Das (wkt), Mahmudullah, Mehidy Hasan, Mohammad Saifuddin, Mominul Haque, Mushfiqur Rahim (wkt), Nasir Hossain, Rubel Hossain, Sabbir Rahman, Shafiul Islam, Soumya Sarkar, Taskin Ahmed
Fixtures
Oct 26: Bloemfontein
Oct 29: Potchefstroom
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
