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Allan Lichtman, whose almost unfailingly accurate presidential election predictions saw him rise to international prominence, seemed to be at a loss for words on Tuesday night as Vice President Kamala Harris appeared to be on the verge of losing the White House to Donald Trump.
“Time is running out,” said Prof Lichtman on the election episode of his live YouTube show. “Trump has maintained his lead in Pennsylvania.”
Several months ago, Prof Lichtman made his much-anticipated prediction, saying that his famous 13 keys system showed that Ms Harris would emerge victorious.
In a previous interview with The National, Prof Lichtman said that while he was confident in his prediction, he still gets nervous during every presidential election cycle.
“That's why I still get butterflies in my stomach on election night,” he said. “Could I be wrong? Sure. But so far my predictions have withstood the test of time.”
This time, it appears Prof Lichtman's prediction was wrong.
“I'm not doing any interviews, I'm done with that. I will make a statement [about it] and I'll decide when my next show is going to be,” he said, as he finished a four-hour live-stream show on YouTube.
“Good thing I have nothing to do tomorrow. You know what happens if Trump wins? He won't serve a full term, he'll turn it over to JD Vance.”
Prof Lichtman said he did not believe Mr Trump's health would allow him to serve a full term.
While Prof Lichtman had been popular in political science circles for many years, it was his 2016 prediction – which said that Mr Trump would win, going against the popular wisdom at the time – that put him in the rarefied air of political stardom.
A few years later, he correctly predicted that Joe Biden would defeat Mr Trump.
Throughout his most recent live-streamed show, hecklers populated the chat room to try to provoke Prof Lichtman into addressing his inaccurate prediction.
He did not interact, instead addressing the kind words he had received as results began to come in.
“I'm heartened from all the kind emails I've been getting, a lot of people say we should keep doing this show,” he told his son, Sam Lichtman, who appeared alongside him.
“I'm going to sleep all day tomorrow.”
This is not the first time Prof Lichtman has been incorrect.
In 2000, he predicted a victory for Al Gore, and while this came to fruition in terms of the popular vote, there was controversy over vote tallies in Florida. Ultimately a Supreme Court decision gave Mr Bush the electoral college victory.
“Al Gore, based on the actual verdict of the voters, was the winner. What happened in Florida was voter suppression,” Prof Lichtman told The National last year. “And I wasn't the only one to come to that conclusion.”
Prof Lichtman is not without his critics.
Prominent statistician and journalist Nate Silver described the 13 keys method as “superficial” in 2011.
“I wrote him [Mr Silver] a 30-page response … and offered to write a joint article with him,” Prof Lichtman said. He added that he wanted to write about how two analysts using two different methods could ultimately come to the same conclusion.
FiveThirtyEight, founded by Mr Silver and operated by ABC News, ultimately published Prof Lichtman's response, but Mr Silver did not directly address it.
“I never heard a word from him,” Prof Lichtman said.
Lichtman's 13 keys to the White House:
- Party mandate: After the midterm elections the incumbent party holds more seats in the US House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections.
- Contest: The candidate is nominated on the first ballot and wins at least two thirds of the delegate votes.
- Incumbency: The sitting president is the party candidate.
- Third party: A third-party candidate wins at least 5 per cent of the popular vote.
- Short-term economy: The National Bureau of Economic Research has either not declared a recession, or has declared it over before the election.
- Long-term economy: Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds the mean growth during the previous two terms.
- Policy change: The administration achieves a major policy change during the term comparable to the New Deal or the first-term Reagan Revolution.
- Social unrest: There is no social unrest during the term that is comparable to the upheavals of the post-civil war Reconstruction or of the 1960s, and is sustained or raises deep concerns about the unravelling of society.
- Scandal: There is no broad recognition of a scandal that directly touches upon the president
- Foreign or military failure: There is no major failure during the term comparable to Pearl Harbor or the Iran hostage crisis that appears to significantly undermine America's national interests or threaten its standing in the world.
- Foreign or military success: There is a major success during the term comparable to the winning of the Second World War or the Camp David Accords that significantly advances America's national interests or its standing in the world.
- Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is a national hero comparable to Ulysses Grant or Dwight Eisenhower or is an inspirational candidate comparable to Franklin Roosevelt or Ronald Reagan.
- Challenger charisma: The challenger party candidate is not a national hero comparable to Ulysses Grant or Dwight Eisenhower and is not an inspirational candidate comparable to Franklin Roosevelt or Ronald Reagan.
– Source: Allan J. Lichtman, The Thirteen Keys to the Presidency
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Zayed Sustainability Prize
The five pillars of Islam
PREMIER LEAGUE TABLE
1 Man City 26 20 3 3 63 17 63
2 Liverpool 25 17 6 2 64 20 57
3 Chelsea 25 14 8 3 49 18 50
4 Man Utd 26 13 7 6 44 34 46
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5 West Ham 26 12 6 8 45 34 42
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6 Arsenal 23 13 3 7 36 26 42
7 Wolves 24 12 4 8 23 18 40
8 Tottenham 23 12 4 8 31 31 39
The five pillars of Islam
1. Fasting
2. Prayer
3. Hajj
4. Shahada
5. Zakat
Common OCD symptoms and how they manifest
Checking: the obsession or thoughts focus on some harm coming from things not being as they should, which usually centre around the theme of safety. For example, the obsession is “the building will burn down”, therefore the compulsion is checking that the oven is switched off.
Contamination: the obsession is focused on the presence of germs, dirt or harmful bacteria and how this will impact the person and/or their loved ones. For example, the obsession is “the floor is dirty; me and my family will get sick and die”, the compulsion is repetitive cleaning.
Orderliness: the obsession is a fear of sitting with uncomfortable feelings, or to prevent harm coming to oneself or others. Objectively there appears to be no logical link between the obsession and compulsion. For example,” I won’t feel right if the jars aren’t lined up” or “harm will come to my family if I don’t line up all the jars”, so the compulsion is therefore lining up the jars.
Intrusive thoughts: the intrusive thought is usually highly distressing and repetitive. Common examples may include thoughts of perpetrating violence towards others, harming others, or questions over one’s character or deeds, usually in conflict with the person’s true values. An example would be: “I think I might hurt my family”, which in turn leads to the compulsion of avoiding social gatherings.
Hoarding: the intrusive thought is the overvaluing of objects or possessions, while the compulsion is stashing or hoarding these items and refusing to let them go. For example, “this newspaper may come in useful one day”, therefore, the compulsion is hoarding newspapers instead of discarding them the next day.
Source: Dr Robert Chandler, clinical psychologist at Lighthouse Arabia
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
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In numbers
1,000 tonnes of waste collected daily:
- 800 tonnes converted into alternative fuel
- 150 tonnes to landfill
- 50 tonnes sold as scrap metal
800 tonnes of RDF replaces 500 tonnes of coal
Two conveyor lines treat more than 350,000 tonnes of waste per year
25 staff on site
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
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BeIN Sports currently has the rights to show
- Champions League
- English Premier League
- Spanish Primera Liga
- Italian, French and Scottish leagues
- Wimbledon and other tennis majors
- Formula One
- Rugby Union - Six Nations and European Cups
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%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEquestrian%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EAbdullah%20Humaid%20Al%20Muhairi%2C%20Abdullah%20Al%20Marri%2C%20Omar%20Al%20Marzooqi%2C%20Salem%20Al%20Suwaidi%2C%20and%20Ali%20Al%20Karbi%20(four%20to%20be%20selected).%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EJudo%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EMen%3A%20Narmandakh%20Bayanmunkh%20(66kg)%2C%20Nugzari%20Tatalashvili%20(81kg)%2C%20Aram%20Grigorian%20(90kg)%2C%20Dzhafar%20Kostoev%20(100kg)%2C%20Magomedomar%20Magomedomarov%20(%2B100kg)%3B%20women's%20Khorloodoi%20Bishrelt%20(52kg).%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECycling%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3ESafia%20Al%20Sayegh%20(women's%20road%20race).%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESwimming%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EMen%3A%20Yousef%20Rashid%20Al%20Matroushi%20(100m%20freestyle)%3B%20women%3A%20Maha%20Abdullah%20Al%20Shehi%20(200m%20freestyle).%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EAthletics%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EMaryam%20Mohammed%20Al%20Farsi%20(women's%20100%20metres).%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Dust and sand storms compared
Sand storm
- Particle size: Larger, heavier sand grains
- Visibility: Often dramatic with thick "walls" of sand
- Duration: Short-lived, typically localised
- Travel distance: Limited
- Source: Open desert areas with strong winds
Dust storm
- Particle size: Much finer, lightweight particles
- Visibility: Hazy skies but less intense
- Duration: Can linger for days
- Travel distance: Long-range, up to thousands of kilometres
- Source: Can be carried from distant regions
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
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%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Enterprise-grade%20security%20and%20privacy%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Unlimited%20higher-speed%20GPT-4%20access%20with%20no%20caps%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Longer%20context%20windows%20for%20processing%20longer%20inputs%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Advanced%20data%20analysis%20capabilities%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Customisation%20options%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Shareable%20chat%20templates%20that%20companies%20can%20use%20to%20collaborate%20and%20build%20common%20workflows%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Analytics%20dashboard%20for%20usage%20insights%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Free%20credits%20to%20use%20OpenAI%20APIs%20to%20extend%20OpenAI%20into%20a%20fully-custom%20solution%20for%20enterprises%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
WHAT IS A BLACK HOLE?
1. Black holes are objects whose gravity is so strong not even light can escape their pull
2. They can be created when massive stars collapse under their own weight
3. Large black holes can also be formed when smaller ones collide and merge
4. The biggest black holes lurk at the centre of many galaxies, including our own
5. Astronomers believe that when the universe was very young, black holes affected how galaxies formed
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Company%C2%A0profile
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The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on
Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins
Read part one: how cars came to the UAE
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MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
Mission%3A%20Impossible%20-%20Dead%20Reckoning%20Part%20One
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The Little Things
Directed by: John Lee Hancock
Starring: Denzel Washington, Rami Malek, Jared Leto
Four stars
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
