Why Michigan and Pennsylvania's electoral votes are complicated for Kamala Harris

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US presidential hopeful Kamala Harris ideally needs to win both Pennsylvania and Michigan on election night to secure the 270 electoral vote threshold needed for an overall victory, but polling in both states shows her campaign faces a difficult balancing act in part due to the wars in the Middle East affecting both Muslim and Jewish Americans.

“That explains a lot of the problems Kamala Harris has been having in trying to define a clear position on what she would do on Gaza, because she wants to make sure that she’s balancing between the different parts of her party,” Douglas Silliman, a former US ambassador to Kuwait and Iraq who is now president of the Arab Gulf States Institute, said during a round-table discussion on The Middle East and US elections hosted by The National in Washington.

Mr Silliman was referring to a poll commissioned by The National, which found Harris voters are more likely than Trump supporters to back a negotiated settlement between the Israelis and Palestinians, less likely to support overall Israeli military action in Gaza and more likely to support an independent state of Palestine.

Despite those numbers, however, the Harris campaign has faced an uphill battle, particularly in Michigan where Muslim voters hold tremendous sway.

Vice President Harris has faced accusations that her approach is too close to that of President Joe Biden, whose mostly unconditional support for Israel as it has flattened Gaza has ruined his reputation for many Arab Americans.

That point was illustrated by Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, who recently addressed those who may be reluctant to support Ms Harris due to her stance on Israel and Gaza.

“I understand that there are millions of Americans who disagree with President Biden and Vice President Harris on the terrible war in Gaza. I am one of them,” he said on social media platform X.

“Even on this issue, Donald Trump and his right-wing friends are worse,” he continued.

In what’s expected to be a razor-tight election, if enough Muslim voters in Michigan switch their support to Mr Trump or even Green Party candidate Jill Stein, that could be enough to defeat Ms Harris in what’s seen as a critical state for Democrats.

Mr Trump recently made headlines when he was joined by several prominent Muslim Americans on stage at his recent campaign events in Dearborn, Michigan.

Meanwhile, as protests against the US policy regarding Palestine and Gaza in Michigan continue, it’s all but certain that Vice President Harris won’t receive the same level of support Democrats have enjoyed from the Muslim American community in recent election cycles.

Yet a few states over, in Pennsylvania, another crucial swing state, there’s a completely different conundrum with regard to the Jewish American community that could also be the difference between a victory and defeat for Kamala Harris.

“For every Michigan there’s an equal and opposite dynamic in my home state of Pennsylvania,” said Brian Katulis, a senior fellow for US foreign policy at the Middle East Institute in Washington who was also part of The National’s round-table discussion.

“Jewish Americans there are deeply concerned about the trends in anti-Semitism, and the attacks they’ve seen in their lives, and things like this.”

In the year following the October 7 attacks by Hamas-led fighters on Israel, which resulted in the deaths of 1,200 people and the capture of at least 250 hostages, Israel’s response, which has killed more than 43,000 people in Gaza, has prompted the spread of anti-Semitism in various parts of the US.

In Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, the city recently observed the sixth anniversary of a synagogue shooting that left 11 people dead. It was the deadliest attack on the American Jewish community and prompted heightened awareness about anti-Semitism throughout the state and much of the country.

Although not monolithic in terms of political support, Jewish Americans have tended to largely support the Democratic Party.

“Most Jewish Americans strongly support Democrats because of social and economic issues, so there’s more complexity there,” said Mr Katulis, referring to the balancing act faced by the Harris campaign as it seeks to solidify Jewish American support in the all-important state of Pennsylvania, while also keeping Michigan and Muslim-Americans in mind.

Mr Katulis, however, cautioned that it remains to be seen whether the younger voters who have been more vocal about Gaza and critical of US support of Israel, will translate into substantial voting block.

“You see it with op-eds with people saying ‘things are changing’, and the data says generations are changing on the left, but at the height of the college protests in the spring, at that same time … there was a four-to-one congressional vote for aid to Israel,” he said, pointing out that Democrats during this year might be able to convert moderate Republicans, who also happen to support Israel, to vote for Ms Harris, therefore blunting any impact from those voters who are critical of Israel and reluctant to support her.

“You can remember this on Election Day and afterwords, who is going to shape and determine the president of the United States, it’s a battle between Republicans who are in the closet for Harris, versus younger activists,” he said, expressing some scepticism about voter turnout for those who are critical of Israel.

That said, Mr Katulis added that the more nuanced opinions and wider spectrum making up the Democratic Party, put more of a burden on Ms Harris in trying to carry both Michigan and Pennsylvania, where tensions in the Middle East are playing a larger than usual role.

For the Harris campaign, in terms of sheer numbers, Pennsylvania and its 19 electoral votes are widely seen as more crucial for an overall victory, while Michigan’s 15 votes are still crucial to potentially close the deal.

If Ms Harris wins Pennsylvania but loses Michigan, there’s still a path to victory.

If she loses Pennsylvania but wins Michigan, the same could be said, but the maths are much harder.