Progress on US President Joe Biden’s climate agenda can be seen on America's motorways, where a record 1.3 million newly bought electric vehicles were driving last year.
EVs were a cornerstone in Mr Biden’s 2020 campaign pledge to bring the most ambitious climate agenda to the White House – and in 2024, Vice President Kamala Harris is seeking to build on increased EV adoption as she runs for president.
In 2021, Mr Biden set a goal of 50 per cent of new passenger vehicles sold to have zero emissions by 2030 and signed an executive order directing federal agencies to buy 100 per cent zero-emission light-duty vehicles by 2027.
The more than 1.4 million EVs sold in the US in 2023 – including fully electric and plug-in hybrids – represented more than 9 per cent of all vehicle sales for the year. That's a more than 50 per cent increase over total EV sales in 2022.
As a campaign pitch, persisting on EVs could amount to a gamble for Democrats over an issue on which American voters have complicated opinions.
Climate activists say with Ms Harris now the Democratic nominee, “it’s night and day” in terms of enthusiasm from younger, progressive and more climate-conscious voters.
Stevie O’Hanlon, a spokeswoman for the youth-led climate action group the Sunrise Movement, says a Harris ticket presents “a really big opportunity to totally change the game with the youth vote this November”.
But as a policy position, strong gains have been tempered with enduring challenges.
Republican nominee Donald Trump has already called for oil and gas industry executives to donate campaign funds in exchange for a reversal of Biden administration climate policies.
For Trump and members of his “Make America Great Again” movement, the Biden administration's push for EVs is unfair for consumers and is government overreach.
If elected, the former president is all but certain to withdraw vehicle emissions targets and slash EV tax credits.
Electric vehicles: a politically charged issue
This year, Mr Biden announced a landmark addition to his push towards electric vehicles: new car-emission standards that officials have called the most consequential yet in cutting planet-warming gases.
Seth Warren Rose, founding director at the Eneref Institute research organisation and former special adviser for sustainable development at the US Department of Defence, said the progress was an overall win for Mr Biden.
He “will go down in history as one of the great presidents because of all he's been able to accomplish”, Mr Warren Rose told The National.
The new rules relax tailpipe limits proposed last year but eventually get close to the same strict standards set out by the Environmental Protection Agency.
The EPA said that under this rule, the industry could meet the limits if 56 per cent of new vehicle sales are electric by 2032, along with at least 13 per cent plug-in hybrids or other “partially electric” cars.
But such measures have mobilised congressional Republicans and are likely to face backlash in the courts. That divide on EVs is also reflected by American voters.
Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, younger adults and city people are among the most likely to say they would consider buying an EV, according to 2023 polling from Pew Research.
That includes 56 per cent of Democrats or Democratic-leaning voters open to making the transition, compared to only 20 per cent of Republican or Republican-leaning voters.
Trump has said that electric vehicles “don't go far” and that “they cost a fortune”.
Even so, residents in the Republican strongholds of Texas and Florida are increasingly adopting EVs, trailing only deep blue California in terms of EV registrations.
And Mr Biden’s boldness on EVs has inspired significant Republican criticism on Capitol Hill – including support for legislation that would undermine his push to ensure new chargers are built in America and disapproving of his Buy America waiver.
Ms O'Hanlon said that “the Biden administration has taken most of the steps at their disposal” to accelerate the EV transition, given conservative opposition in Congress.
But progressives concerned about the necessity of the EV transition in the fight to mitigate the climate crisis say that it “needs to go much faster”.
If Trump is elected, Ms O'Hanlon says, the progress that has been made on EVs will be withdrawn immediately.
A sprawling charging network, but short of expectations
Mr Biden has long pledged to build a network of 500,000 charging stations in the US by the end of the decade, a feat that would rival the creation of the interstate motorway system.
Despite the pledges and billions in investments, charging infrastructure is lacking.
Congress has given $7.5 billion for EV charging stations since Mr Biden's National Vehicle Infrastructure Programme in 2021. Since then, only six states used those funds for EV stations.
Today there are more than 65,987 charging stations across the US, but few of these offer fast-charging options. Only 10,699 of these plugs are DC fast chargers, which can charge an EV battery up to 80 per cent between 20 minutes and one hour – whereas a Level 2 charger can take hours.
And many of the fast-charging stations are clustered around major centres, mostly along the East and West coasts, leaving large parts of middle America underserved.
This is true even for Tesla, which has more than 25,000 supercharger ports across the US. Although it recognised early that its supercharging stations could ease the “range anxiety”, EV drivers face, they are mainly on the coasts.
“People are worried about battery life. Range anxiety isn't even a term we'd heard a few years ago. Now it's probably the biggest obstacle,” Mr Warren Rose said.
Lack of charging stations were the main reason preventing James Roberts of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, from buying an EV.
Even though he classified himself as a “prime candidate for an EV” because of his short work commute to Washington County, Mr Roberts decided against buying a Tesla because of the lack of nearby charging stations.
“I think one regular [vehicle], and one EV is possible for some, but to only have EVs living in the suburbs seems very prohibitive,” he told The National.
Roadblocks to EV adoption in the US
The lack of charging stations is just one barrier for EV adoption in the US, as consumers fret about long drives.
A study from analytics company JD Power said these barriers were why demand has dropped so far this year.
The study showed shoppers who are “very likely” to consider purchasing an EV dropped from 26 per cent last year to 24 per cent this year. Those who are “overall likely” to buy fell to 58 per cent from 61 per cent.
Stewart Stropp, executive director of EV intelligence at JD Power, said educating consumers on charging options and stations could help ease that anxiety.
“A lot of people just don't have a good grasp yet of it, to locate and use chargers when they when they are on a road trip,” he said.
The other barrier is cost.
The average price for a new EV was $55,167 in the first quarter this year, compared to $44,989 for a non-EV. Customers looking for a budget-friendly EV will only find a few options such as the Chevrolet Bolt and Nissan Leaf.
And Tesla, faced with slowing sales, has slashed the price of its Model 3 to $38,990. Still, the average Tesla sold for $52,315 last quarter.
Other barriers to entry include higher interest rates on car loans, a drop in petrol prices and a lack of awareness of tax incentives for owning an EV, according to JD Power.
“It's safe to say that with the general perception out there that EVs are more expensive than gas vehicle alternatives, that when you have high interest rates, when you have lower gas prices also … that that could very well contribute to shoppers that maybe consider EVs a bit less,” Mr Stropp said.
“So it really just definitely highlights how important it is to ensure that they are aware of the incentive [and] monies that are out there,” he said, referring to tax credits EV-buyers can receive.
Mr Warren Rose put it this way: “Even the most conservative, right-wing Republican … would be willing to get into an electric vehicle if they are otherwise reluctant, if the costs were there.
“That's what Biden understood, and that's what he's tried to do. But you know, the insurance costs are higher for an electric vehicle. Because you crash electric vehicle, the repairs are higher.”
China enters the EV market
Strong growth in the US – as well as China and the EU – is expected to drive global EV sales to 17 million this year, according to the International Energy Agency.
But signs point to market momentum slowing despite a record number of EVs on the road in 2023.
Amid slowing sales, a new threat has also emerged: Chinese competition, putting more pressure on American makers.
Even though Chinese cars are not sold in the US, their cheap prices threaten to squeeze US car makers out of the global marketplace.
In response to the Chinese government subsidising the industry, the Biden administration has imposed major tariffs on Chinese EVs, solar cells and other new technology to protect US companies.
While high tariffs are so far preventing BYD from selling its vehicles in the US, its soon-to-be-built plant in Mexico could make it more difficult to keep out, said Vanessa Ton, senior research manager at Cox Automotive.
“The price point is right and this is what people want,” Ms Ton said, adding competition would depend on how the Biden or Trump administrations would react. “But they are a threat.”
US conservatives have accused Mr Biden's energy policies of “favouring China against Pittsburgh”.
“Countries around the world, especially America’s top adversary – the People’s Republic of China – are eager to replicate the success of Pittsburgh’s powerhouse energy industry,” wrote Diana Furchtgott-Roth, the Heritage Foundation think tank's director of its Centre for Energy, Climate and Environment.
“The Biden administration’s green agenda is helping them do just that.”
Mr Warren Rose says Mr Biden has balanced Chinese competition “beautifully” during his first term, but concedes “it's an interesting problem for Americans politically”.
A dead end or a bump in the road?
After a disappointing first quarter, EV sales picked up from April to May. Americans bought 330,463 in the US last quarter, an increase of 11.3 per cent year-on-year.
Meanwhile, more EVs are sitting in car dealers' inventories and some makers are delaying timelines on their EV models.
Among those is Ford, which now plans to delay releasing EV pickup lorries and SUVs, instead adding hybrid vehicles to its line-up.
GM, Mercedes-Benz, Volkswagen, Jaguar Land Rover and Aston Martin are also scaling back EV plans. But these companies have not yet said the delay would affect long-term goals.
GM, one of the earliest adopters in the EV marketplace, is aiming to have an all-electric line-up of light-duty vehicles by 2035.
senior research manager at Cox Automotive
Despite these challenges, Mr Stropp does not think the Biden administration or manufacturers overestimated consumers' willingness to embrace the industry.
And a recent study from data company Cox Automotive suggests slowing sales growth and a dip in EV consideration is not an indicator of weakening growth.
Cox says 79 per cent of consumers will consider buying an EV between 2026 and 2028, anticipating the technology will be more developed by then.
“They want faster charging. They want better range, they want better performance, but they also want to be sure that the vehicle works,” Ms Ton told The National.
While the report noted slower sales growth and a dip in consideration, it remained optimistic, saying these barriers to entry must be overcome after early adopters led to high sales in previous years.
“I just think with the consumers themselves, they need to see … more improvements, more infrastructure. Different things have to happen in order for them to make that switch,” Ms Ton said.
She also said EVs with prices similar to the Chevy Equinox ($26,600) would get sceptical consumers' attention.
“The interest is still there. It's just that they're just waiting for a bit more to happen.”
