Talented students and professionals in London say increasing restrictions on staying in the UK could outweigh the benefits, as the UK government and opposition parties make cutting immigration a central policy.
The ruling Labour party has said it will reform the pathways for people seeking permanent settlement status and impose stricter quotas.
Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood announced the new plan on Thursday, with the effect being felt not only by those seeking a new life but also hundreds of thousands who are already applying to make Britain their permanent home.
It is feared this tightening of the system and the escalating costs surrounding it could deter overseas talent from coming to the UK to work and study.
Adham Al Oka is a Syrian HR business partner and global reward manager at an oil and gas company in London. He was recruited to the capital with an intra-company transfer visa in 2020 and switched to a skilled workers visa in 2021.
His wife is also Syrian and a sales manager at a FinTech company. His hopes of applying for permanent settled status have now been turned upside-down by the new policy.
Visa fees and surcharges have more than doubled since his arrival – in recent years he has had to pay a National Health Service surcharge for himself and his family, while his company pays the remaining visa costs.
He has been willing to foot the bill based on a government promise that after five years, he could apply for settlement status. But now Mr Al Oka faces a new period of uncertainty. Though the policy is backdated to 2021, the Home Office says “anyone yet to be granted settlement” would be subject to the newly imposed conditions.
“It’s a nightmare,” he told The National. “We planned our lives on the premise that we would get settlement status in five years.”
Migrants seeking indefinite leave to remain (ILR) would now have to be living in the UK for 10 years instead of five, in addition to requirements such as a high standard of English, a clean criminal record and volunteering in the community.
They now need to make significant financial or charitable contributions to the country for their wait to be shortened. Migrants making national insurance contributions will receive settlement after 10 years, but higher-rate taxpayers will benefit from reduced periods in recognition of their contribution.
The rules are being applied retrospectively to 2021, which means a up to 1.6 million people who have since arrived in the UK will now have to wait of up to 10 years before applying for settlement status.
Ms Mahmood said: “Migration will always be a vital part of Britain’s story. But the scale of arrivals in recent years has been unprecedented. To settle in this country forever is not a right, but a privilege, and it must be earned. I am replacing a broken immigration system with one that prioritises contribution, integration and respect for the British sense of fair play.”
Ben Goldsborough, Labour MP for South Norfolk, had warned the government in a parliamentary debate in September: “The prospect of applying changes retrospectively has caused huge anxiety for people who have uprooted their family, made financial sacrifices and planned their future on the basis of clear rules.”
Labour MP Rupa Huq fears the restrictions will have a wider impact by causing talent to go elsewhere. “Settled status is [available within] five years in most of the rest of Europe, so unwittingly we are advantaging our rivals,” she said during the September debate. “We should not move the goalposts for those already in the system and trash solemn promises that we made to them.”
Highlighting the almost 20 per cent decline in overseas student visas, she said: “Universities have a vital part to play in growth and productivity across the UK, but we could be sleepwalking into a perfect storm. We need to be honest about the trade-offs involved in reducing immigration and about culture wars.”
The policy was described as a “radical shift” with “many questions still unclear” by Madeleine Sumption, director of the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford.
Access to permanent settlement would be harder than in other “comparable” high income countries she said. “Many high earners will get a faster route to permanent status, while people with low or no earnings will wait much longer and will not get access to benefits for several years,” she said.
If implemented, the policies would bring a “trade off” between restricting access to welfare and the risk of poverty on those on the lowest incomes.
In addition, “the risk not having a secure immigration status will make integration harder,” said Ms Sumption.
“Major questions remain unclear. These include what will happen to the children of the new generation of temporary migrants. As written, the policy implies a much larger number of ‘mixed status’ families where some people have permanent residence rights and others do not.”
Rising costs
Mr Al Oka's last application in 2023 saw his healthcare surcharge rise from £624 to £1,035 ($817 to $1,355) a year per person, around a 56 per cent increase.
Mr Al Oka estimates a £15,525 bill for the next five years for himself and his family if the proposed extension goes through. That is in addition to the income tax and national insurance he also pays.
His career aspirations are also affected. The constant need for visas and sponsorship means he is limited in the choice of companies he can work for and in his professional progression. “I need to progress in my career. While I did just receive a promotion, my concern is the long-term trap. Being tied to one company for 10 years just to get ILR severely limits my future career mobility in the open market.”
He does not know what he will do if the ILR requirement is extended. “I can’t know for sure, I’m a career-driven person. After my family, my career is the second most important thing for me,” he said. “If I lose my job and can't find one that will pay the visa and surcharges, I will have nowhere else to go but Syria, which is not an option for me.”
Hardline immigration
The government's immigration policies are partly in response to the challenge posed by the right-wing party Reform UK, which has been gaining ground with its anti-immigration stance since the election last year.
Reform proposes to replace ILR with a five-year visa and could revoke ILR from current holders. Migrants would need to have lived in the UK for seven years before they can apply for citizenship, rather than five and in “most cases” they would need to renounce their other passports.
Ms Mahmood toughened her talk on immigration this week, with plans to introduce a 20-year wait for permanent stay for asylum seekers who are smuggled into the country and for immigrants who rely on the welfare system.
She also announced that refugee status would become temporary, with people being sent home immediately once their country is deemed safe.
While these policies will not affect skilled workers who enter the UK with visas, they are part of a package of anti-immigration policies that is encroaching on how Britain attracts, recruits and retains talent.
Graduates squeezed
As an HR professional, Mr Al Oka sees first-hand the effect of these restrictions on the graduates his company hires.
The salary threshold for a visa has grown to £41,700 a year. Recent graduates, people under 26 and those who have a doctorate in a scientific subject would be permitted to earn less, as long as it is at least £33,400.
But this threshold is set to rise, with the graduate discount abolished, according the UK government’s proposal.
Many graduate recruits were “living in anxiety” that their next pay rise would not meet new threshold, Mr Al Oka said. “It just keeps adding pressure for a group of people who are highly skilled. They invested in their education here,” he said.
That and visa sponsorship fees are reducing the pool of employers likely to hire graduates from overseas.
