More than a quarter of a million British citizens left the UK for a life abroad last year, revised population figures show, a significantly higher number than previously thought.
Last year, about 257,000 citizens are estimated to have left the UK, compared with an initial estimate of 77,000. Meanwhile, 143,000 British citizens returned to the UK, delivering a net emigration figure of 114,000, compared with the previous estimate of minus 17,000.
The revised figures fit a pattern of reports that thousands of wealthy individuals are choosing to leave Britain and relocate to countries such as Italy, Malta and the UAE. Tax changes already introduced, such as the abolition of non-dom status, have fuelled the departures, compounded by the expectation of further toughening of the tax regime by Chancellor Rachel Reeves in next week’s budget as the government strives to balance the books.
Among high-profile figures who have left, or are planning to leave, for the UAE are tech entrepreneur Herman Narula, property billionaire Asif Aziz, FinTech exec Nik Storonsky and Aston Villa FC co-owner Nassef Sawiris.
The main driver of the change in the figures is an improvement to the way the Office for National Statistics (ONS) calculates migration from Britain.
Estimates were previously based on the International Passenger Survey (IPS), but this had a small sample size and had been “stretched beyond its original purpose”, so is no longer considered a reliable measure, the ONS said.
The estimates are now produced using more robust and comprehensive data from the Department for Work and Pensions, which incorporates everyone with a National Insurance number and can be used to determine the likely migration status of UK individuals.
The improved figures also show net migration to the UK in recent years peaked at a slightly higher level than initially estimated and has since fallen more sharply.
Net migration hit a higher and slightly earlier peak of 944,000 in the year ending March 2023, compared with the previous estimate of 906,000 for the year ending June 2023.
This was followed by a sharper fall than initially reported, with net migration in the year ending December 2024 now estimated to be 345,000, lower than the original estimate of 431,000 that was published by the ONS in May this year.
Small boat crisis
The figures cover the closing stages of Rishi Sunak’s Tory government and the first six months of Keir Starmer’s Labour government.
Both prime ministers made reducing migration a priority – both legal and illegal – as they faced rising costs of processing asylum seekers arriving by small boat across the English Channel and the political threat from the populist anti-migrant Reform UK party led by Nigel Farage.
Georgina Sturge, of the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford, said: “The new method almost certainly gives us a more accurate picture of migration but uncertainties remain. The method for estimating migration of British citizens is very much experimental and future revisions are likely. But it is reassuring that the British emigration figure is now more plausible than previous estimates. Another uncertainty is that there is still no good method for taking into account EU and non-EU visa overstayers.”
Improvements have also been made to the way the ONS estimates the movement of "EU+ citizens", which covers the 27 countries of the European Union plus Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland.
Mary Gregory, director of population statistics at the ONS, said the independent body has been exploring various data sources since the 2021 census showed the IPS was underestimating the number of British people abroad.
“Understanding the long-term international migration patterns of British nationals has been, and always will be, challenging due to the sheer number of British people crossing the border on a daily basis,” she said.
“Very few of these will be migrants and British people don’t need a visa to travel to the UK so we cannot use Home Office borders and immigration data to estimate migration of British nationals.
“Based on these new data and methods, it is clear the IPS continued to underestimate British emigration since 2021 and also underestimated immigration.”
Trade barometer
Meanwhile, interest in the UAE among British businesses is rising.
Latest findings from the UK Trade Barometer – from Mag and the Growing Together Alliance of business groups - shows the UAE makes the top 10 most important markets for all UK businesses, signifying its growing appeal as a global trade partner.
Exporters in the north of England are bullish about the UAE, with 12 per cent expecting increased sales there in the final quarter of this year, up from 5 per cent on the second quarter, as they turn their backs on the US and the effect of President Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Overall, UK exporters are actively diverting sales from the US and seeking growth in new markets globally, with the Middle East playing an increasingly significant role, it found. America remains the most important single market, however.
The Barometer – in partnership with YouGov – surveyed more than 2,000 firms across the UK and in all business sectors about their trading fortunes in the last three months and intentions for the quarter ahead.
Ken O’Toole, chief executive of Mag – which owns Manchester, London Stansted and East Midlands airports – said exporters had navigated a host of macroeconomic issues to grow overseas sales and enter new markets.
“With the budget just days away, businesses will be looking for clear signals this government is encouraging – not undermining – public and private sector investment in critical infrastructure that brings businesses across the UK closer to their customers, talent pipeline and key overseas markets.”
