Small boat crossings 'could drop 75% with expanded UK-France deal'

The majority of the British public would back a huge expansion of the "one in, one out" deal with France that could cut small boat crossings by 75 per cent, a new report has claimed.

The findings come from polling undertaken by think tank British Future, which is urging the Labour government to adopt what it calls a “control and compassion” migration policy.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron signed a deal in July for the UK to send back to France migrants who have crossed the English Channel in small boats, in exchange for those who apply for asylum and are approved to come to Britain.

Mr Starmer trails in the polls to the right-wing populist Reform party, whose leader Nigel Farage has promised to deport 600,000 illegal immigrants if he becomes Prime Minister.

The authors of the British Future’s report, How We Can Actually Stop the Boats, argue that significantly scaling up the UK-France scheme would change the behaviour of people seeking asylum and undermine the business model of smugglers.

Their polling shows that 55 per cent of the public would back a policy of returning migrants who arrive by boats in return for allowing in a capped number of asylum seekers.

When the figure of 50,000 asylum seekers each year coming to the UK was included, 48 per cent supported it.

Majorities of Conservatives (53 per cent), Liberal Democrats (57 per cent) and Labour voters (58 per cent) support the 50,000 cap. Among Reform voters, 38 per cent supported it.

Sunder Katwala, director of British Future and co-author of the report, called on Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood “to seize the initiative on small boats with a real-world plan that is bold enough to have an impact but founded on hard evidence of what works”.

“The public would support this - they want action on Channel crossings but still want Britain to protect refugees in need,” Mr Katwala said.

“Most people would prefer an orderly, controlled and humane system to the populist threat to tear everything up, which appeals only to a vocal minority.”

The report also claimed that the UK can draw on what it called the success of the former US administration of president Joe Biden in reducing migration.

After facing public anger after border crossings from Mexico peaked in 2021, the administration introduced controlled and capped legal routes offering refugee protection to those who qualify, and fast rejections and returns for those who did not.

In December 2024, the US Border Patrol reported an 81 per cent decrease in claims compared to the year before.

Former home secretary Charles Clarke said the British Future report “demands serious and urgent consideration by the government”.

“It is constructive, creative and establishes genuine control based on successful practical experience. Theirs is a realistic and humanitarian route to effective action,” he said.

Ruvendrini Menikdiwela, assistant high commissioner for protection at the UN refugee agency (UNHCR), said countries taking steps to deport failed asylum seekers was a “policy we totally endorse”.

Speaking at a briefing on the growing pressure on the global asylum system, Ms Menikdiwela pointed to the example of Switzerland and Austria as two nations who have achieved the balance British Future has urged the UK government to adopt.

Switzerland has a deadline of 140 days for applications to be processed during which asylum seekers are given access to lawyers and interpreters. Asylum seekers arriving at an airport in Austria are processed on the spot and a decision made about whether they should be admitted and allowed to make a full application or rejected.

“So there are ways of dealing with influxes or numbers of asylum seekers and refugees arriving at the shores of the EU of the European states,” said Ms Menikdiwela.

“Closing the door completely building a fortress is not the response. It's simply looking at the process that exists now and streamlining them to meet the demands of today, rather than just throwing up the entire process ‘saying it's not working, we don't think it's even relevant anymore’.”

The first attempt to send migrants back to France failed this week after a judge temporarily blocking the deportation of an Eritrean man.

Lawyers acting on the man’s behalf said the case “concerns a trafficking claim” and say the man, who alleges he has a gunshot wound in his leg, claims he is vulnerable and faces a risk of “destitution” in France.

It comes as a cross-party committee of MPs found the UK government has no clear plan to tackle the record-high numbers of refugees and displaced people fleeing their homes.

In a new report, MPs on the International Development Committee found that the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office had not sufficiently considered the scale of the challenge and that the UK lacked an overarching strategy to respond effectively to the global displacement crisis.

Cuts to funding for gender specific programming will have a “devastating” impact on women and girls, starving them of vital support and services, the committee said.

Making cuts to development funding without understanding the impacts on women and girls was “astonishing”, it added.

The committee called on the government to publish promised impact assessments as soon as possible and to consider ring-fencing funding for women and girls.

MPs argue that while the UK cannot be expected to tackle the challenge alone, significant cuts to funding for international development indicated that the country was “stepping back from the world stage at a time when engagement and collaboration are most needed”.