British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is under pressure to recognise a state of Palestine without delay after a government insider described the decision-making process at Westminster as a formality.
With more than half of the British public now hostile to Israel's conduct of the war in Gaza, the UK government has an opportunity to formalise recognition.
A new YouGov poll has found that public disapproval of the war is growing, with 51 per cent of Britons considering Israel's actions unjustified. Only one in five (21 per cent) believe that they are justified.
“In practice, the decision is taken,” said Sir Vincent Fean, a consul general to Jerusalem between 2010 and 2014. He is urging the Prime Minister to drop conditions. "Recognition of Palestine is an opportunity – and a threat or punishment for no one."
The survey results could alter the UK government's approach to issues beyond recognition, such as “ensuring Israeli policy in Gaza and the West Bank changes”, Mr Fean told The National.
The UK has said it is ready to recognise Palestine at the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in late September, but has given Israel weeks to meet certain conditions before it does so.
Mr Starmer said he will take the step if Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu does not move towards ending the war and restarting a peace process.
Many believe that recognition will go ahead, as Mr Netanyahu continues to reject the proposal of a peace process.
Foreign Office assessment
The assessment of whether or not Israel has met the Prime Minister's conditions is likely to be made by the Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office before UNGA. The Cabinet Office will be consulted about its conclusions, Mr Fean told The National.
The decision cannot be challenged due to being taken using prerogative powers at the government’s disposal. “There won’t be a committee, there is no requirement for parliament to decide,” he said.
British officials are working on the “nuts and bolts” of judging how Israel would meet the criteria set out by Mr Starmer “and how that would be agreed or disagreed”, sources told The National.
Legal advisers said the resolution on recognising Palestinian statehood can be put forward to the UN General Assembly, then a vote is taken “and that's it”.
Yet Whitehall insiders accept that unless there is a change of government in Israel or a “change of heart from Netanyahu in the way he’s prosecuting the war”, they will not fulfil the British conditions.
“This is an attempt to get the peace process back on track, but it's quite clear that the Israelis don't want to go there,” a Whitehall source said. “So, Palestinian state recognition is going to happen.”
With relations between Israel and Britain at possibly their lowest ebb, it is understood there will be no visit of any UK ministers to the country in the near future.
Hostage pleas
Opponents of the decision include the families of British hostages in Gaza, who fear that it would give Hamas an incentive to prolong the war. Members of the four families met with the Foreign Office on Thursday evening to raise their concerns.
“It was clear from the meeting last night that the British government’s policy will not help the hostages, and could even hurt them,” said their lawyer Adam Wagner KC.
“It was made obvious to us at the meeting that … in deciding whether to go ahead with recognition, the release or otherwise of the hostages would play no part,” he wrote in a statement.
Political question
The Labour government said it would be guided by international law in its foreign policy making.
But the decision to recognise Palestine is being framed as a political question, with Business Minister Gareth Thomas telling Sky News that “recognition of another state is a political judgment”.
Nonetheless, it is likely that Mr Starmer will “want to have legal cover” for the recognition, with Foreign Office lawyers working up a “cold, technical approach to it”, former diplomat Edmund Fitton-Brown told The National.
“They will likely set up a mechanism which will enable them to say that the British conditions have not been met,” he said.
The former ambassador to Yemen suggested that UNGA was the “least problematic forum for the upgrade”. Many heads of state or government will be present in September, including Mr Starmer, French President Emmanuel Macron and possibly Mahmoud Abbas from the Palestinian Authority – if the US allows him to enter.
This is not lost on critics. “The government usually tries to shut down debate by characterising political issues as legal questions (immigration, Chagos Islands),” said shadow attorney general Lord David Wolfson, writing on social media.
“It’s now trying to argue that recognition of a foreign state, which has always been and universally as a legal question, is only a political issue.”
Earlier, peers and leading lawyers opposing recognition wrote to Attorney General Lord Richard Hermer, to warn that the move could break international law.
Mr Hermer’s office would not comment on whether or not he had advised the government on recognition, citing a longstanding convention.
Conditions questioned
Mr Starmer also faces pressure to recognise Palestine at UNGA but without the conditions he set out this week.
Christopher Chessun, the Anglican Bishop of Southwark, who is the House of Lords Lead Bishop for the Middle East, said it was “disappointing” that the recognition had been used as a “bargaining chip”.
“The UK has a particular historical and moral duty to recognise the state of Palestine, and it is therefore disappointing that this recognition has been made conditional,” he said in a letter.
“The right of the Palestinian people to self-determination is not a bargaining chip, and there can be no conditions placed on it,” he wrote, in the letter co-signed by other Church of England bishops.
“We urge the government to move ahead with recognition of Palestine regardless of the facts on the ground.”
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