Britain’s street crime will intensify following a tranche of reforms aimed at easing overcrowding in prisons, The National has been told.
With jails dangerously crammed, the Ministry of Justice has decided on a series of changes to prison tariffs that will allow violent criminals and sex offenders to be released early.
Fewer criminals would be put behind bars and more would serve sentences in the community, while judges could be given more flexibility to impose punishments such as football or driving bans. Short sentences of less than 12 months would also be scrapped, apart from exceptional circumstances, after an independent sentencing review led by former justice secretary David Gauke recommended an overhaul.
With the probation service under severe stress, failing to lock up criminals posed a “real danger” on the streets of London and risked other cities becoming crime hotspots, said Robert Buckland, who was the justice secretary from 2019 to 2021.
“I really don't think that we should be letting out violent and sexual offenders earlier without very good justification,” he said. “This should not just be for good behaviour, but concrete evidence that they're making progress and that they don't present the risk of reoffending.”
‘Bust in months’
The Labour government has condemned the 14 years of Conservative rule during which it claims just 500 prison places were added while the prison population nearly doubled.
The latest projections showed that jails will be “bust within months” and 9,500 places short by early 2028 without drastic action, said Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood.
Latest figures show the prison population in England and Wales is 88,103, just 418 below the record of 88,521, which was reached on September 6, 2024.
The only way to end the crisis was to build more prisons, said Ms Mahmood, with the government promising £4.7 billion to make 14,000 places by 2031 in what it promises will be “the largest prison expansion since the Victorian era”.
Key recommendations
- Fewer criminals put behind bars and more to serve sentences in the community, with short sentences scrapped and many inmates released earlier.
- Greater use of curfews and exclusion zones to deliver tougher supervision than ever on criminals.
- Explore wider powers for judges to punish offenders by blocking them from attending football matches, banning them from driving or travelling abroad through an expansion of ‘ancillary orders’.
- More Intensive Supervision Courts to tackle the root causes of crime such as alcohol and drug abuse – forcing repeat offenders to take part in tough treatment programmes or face prison.
“If our prisons collapse, courts are forced to suspend trials, the police must halt their arrests, crime goes unpunished, criminals run amok and chaos reigns,” Ms Mahmood warned. “We face the breakdown of law and order in this country.”
Street crime fear
When the government came to power in July last year it inherited dangerously overcrowded jails just as race riots broke out across the country that led to more than 200 convictions.
This forced the new government to give early release to a number of non-violent offenders to free up prison space.
That was a temporary measure and led to Mr Gauke being asked by Labour to undertake the full review that reported on Thursday.
The government has accepted his recommendation to reduce time served for those convicted of “standard determinate sentences”, such as burglary or drug offences. This also includes certain violent and sexual offences, but not rape.
Those criminals will now serve just one third of the sentence in jail, a third on probation and the final period without supervision.
But Mr Buckland argued that there was a “danger of people out in the community who aren't going to be properly supervised” and the lack of supervision element “rings alarm bells”.
His concern was that on the streets of London there was an increased chance of dangerous violent reoffending, such as muggings and sexual offences “that the public need protection from”.
Mobile phone theft in London has reached what has been described as “epidemic” levels, prompting the Met Police to step up undercover operations.
Police data shows that 75,105 mobile phones were stolen in London in the year to April, an increase of 13 per cent on the previous year.
The new proposals, said David Jones, the former Conservative Welsh secretary, were “manifestly not making the streets of London or the UK safer” and that “arguably, it's going to make things a lot worse”.
He was also concerned about the early release scheme, “because prison should be a deterrent and the longer the sentence the bigger the deterrent”.
Mr Buckland also said the probation services were “under huge pressure” and its leader had warned that “without proper resourcing this won’t work”.
The former minister said the probation service's work with young offenders in recent years had seen the under-18 prison population plummet from more than 3,000 to 500.
The government has pledged that it will increase funding for the probation service, rising by £700 million to £2.3 billion in three years.
Prevent reoffending
However, think tanks in favour of prison reform suggested that early release could lead to less repeat offending.
“The three things that stop people reoffending are family relationships, secure housing and employment,” Andrea Coomber, a barrister and chief executive of the Howard League, told The National.
She said that to reduce crime it was better to have people serving “an element of their sentence in prison and then the rest in the community” where they can be supported.
“The ‘tough on crime’ thing sounds great, but it doesn't work,” she added. “A prison governor recently said to me: 'Punishment sounds fantastic, and I wish it worked, but unfortunately, it doesn't because punishing people is inherently inconsistent with rehabilitating them.'”
The Prison Reform Trust’s chief executive Pia Sinha said the reforms were a “once-in-a-generation opportunity” to reset sentencing and reduce reoffending.
She supported the government’s move away from giving sentences of under 12 months, labelling them “pointless short spells in custody” that blocked cells and did not reduce reoffending.
However, Mr Jones argued that the 12-month rule was “basically a charter for shoplifters” that was telling thieves “you can pinch as much as you want and you will not be put in prison”.
Mr Buckland suggested it would take just “one crisis” with a serious reoffending to occur for the public to turn against the early releases and “the aims of these reforms will be utterly lost in an understandable backlash”.
Greatest of All Time
Starring: Vijay, Sneha, Prashanth, Prabhu Deva, Mohan
House-hunting
Top 10 locations for inquiries from US house hunters, according to Rightmove
- Edinburgh, Scotland
- Westminster, London
- Camden, London
- Glasgow, Scotland
- Islington, London
- Kensington and Chelsea, London
- Highlands, Scotland
- Argyll and Bute, Scotland
- Fife, Scotland
- Tower Hamlets, London
Sinopharm vaccine explained
The Sinopharm vaccine was created using techniques that have been around for decades.
“This is an inactivated vaccine. Simply what it means is that the virus is taken, cultured and inactivated," said Dr Nawal Al Kaabi, chair of the UAE's National Covid-19 Clinical Management Committee.
"What is left is a skeleton of the virus so it looks like a virus, but it is not live."
This is then injected into the body.
"The body will recognise it and form antibodies but because it is inactive, we will need more than one dose. The body will not develop immunity with one dose," she said.
"You have to be exposed more than one time to what we call the antigen."
The vaccine should offer protection for at least months, but no one knows how long beyond that.
Dr Al Kaabi said early vaccine volunteers in China were given shots last spring and still have antibodies today.
“Since it is inactivated, it will not last forever," she said.
Zayed Sustainability Prize
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
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The five pillars of Islam
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Cricket World Cup League 2 Fixtures
Saturday March 5, UAE v Oman, ICC Academy (all matches start at 9.30am)
Sunday March 6, Oman v Namibia, ICC Academy
Tuesday March 8, UAE v Namibia, ICC Academy
Wednesday March 9, UAE v Oman, ICC Academy
Friday March 11, Oman v Namibia, Sharjah Cricket Stadium
Saturday March 12, UAE v Namibia, Sharjah Cricket Stadium
UAE squad
Ahmed Raza (captain), Chirag Suri, Muhammad Waseem, CP Rizwan, Vriitya Aravind, Asif Khan, Basil Hameed, Rohan Mustafa, Kashif Daud, Zahoor Khan, Junaid Siddique, Karthik Meiyappan, Akif Raja, Rahul Bhatia
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
Off-roading in the UAE: How to checklist
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Who has been sanctioned?
Daniella Weiss and Nachala
Described as 'the grandmother of the settler movement', she has encouraged the expansion of settlements for decades. The 79 year old leads radical settler movement Nachala, whose aim is for Israel to annex Gaza and the occupied West Bank, where it helps settlers built outposts.
Harel Libi & Libi Construction and Infrastructure
Libi has been involved in threatening and perpetuating acts of aggression and violence against Palestinians. His firm has provided logistical and financial support for the establishment of illegal outposts.
Zohar Sabah
Runs a settler outpost named Zohar’s Farm and has previously faced charges of violence against Palestinians. He was indicted by Israel’s State Attorney’s Office in September for allegedly participating in a violent attack against Palestinians and activists in the West Bank village of Muarrajat.
Coco’s Farm and Neria’s Farm
These are illegal outposts in the West Bank, which are at the vanguard of the settler movement. According to the UK, they are associated with people who have been involved in enabling, inciting, promoting or providing support for activities that amount to “serious abuse”.
Where to submit a sample
Volunteers of all ages can submit DNA samples at centres across Abu Dhabi, including: Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Centre (Adnec), Biogenix Labs in Masdar City, NMC Royal Hospital in Khalifa City, NMC Royal Medical Centre, Abu Dhabi, NMC Royal Women's Hospital, Bareen International Hospital, Al Towayya in Al Ain, NMC Specialty Hospital, Al Ain
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Price, base: Dh1,731,672
Engine: 6.5-litre V12
Gearbox: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 770hp @ 8,500rpm
Torque: 720Nm @ 6,750rpm
Fuel economy: 19.6L / 100km
About Karol Nawrocki
• Supports military aid for Ukraine, unlike other eurosceptic leaders, but he will oppose its membership in western alliances.
• A nationalist, his campaign slogan was Poland First. "Let's help others, but let's take care of our own citizens first," he said on social media in April.
• Cultivates tough-guy image, posting videos of himself at shooting ranges and in boxing rings.
• Met Donald Trump at the White House and received his backing.
SPECS
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The five pillars of Islam
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
WHAT IS A BLACK HOLE?
1. Black holes are objects whose gravity is so strong not even light can escape their pull
2. They can be created when massive stars collapse under their own weight
3. Large black holes can also be formed when smaller ones collide and merge
4. The biggest black holes lurk at the centre of many galaxies, including our own
5. Astronomers believe that when the universe was very young, black holes affected how galaxies formed
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
THE SPECS
Engine: 6.75-litre twin-turbocharged V12 petrol engine
Power: 420kW
Torque: 780Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh1,350,000
On sale: Available for preorder now
Key recommendations
- Fewer criminals put behind bars and more to serve sentences in the community, with short sentences scrapped and many inmates released earlier.
- Greater use of curfews and exclusion zones to deliver tougher supervision than ever on criminals.
- Explore wider powers for judges to punish offenders by blocking them from attending football matches, banning them from driving or travelling abroad through an expansion of ‘ancillary orders’.
- More Intensive Supervision Courts to tackle the root causes of crime such as alcohol and drug abuse – forcing repeat offenders to take part in tough treatment programmes or face prison.
