The collapse of the Syrian army has been swift, decisive and astonishing, but not without precedent in the Middle East and beyond. In just 12 days, the country has gone from what appeared to be an enduring status quo to the total collapse of the Al Assad dynasty.
So, why was a country whose army appeared to have a strong grip over the areas it controlled routed?
While there are strong and recent historical parallels, there is also the unique context of 2024 in which the region has seen seismic events that will shape it for many years to come. Following a decade of civil war, President Bashar Al Assad had become entirely reliant on three foreign allies to prop up his government.
Iran, Russia and Hezbollah have been almost entirely absent during the long week in which the rebels, largely led by Hayat Tahrir Al Sham, have stormed through the country. The absence of leadership from the commander in chief also proved significant, with Mr Al Assad failing to make any appearance or attempt to bolster morale, bar offering a 50 per cent army pay rise.
Moscow muted
While there were a few sorties by Russian warplanes, with some bombs dropped on the advancing rebels, they lacked the precision or force to halt them. The contagion of defeat that clearly gripped the Syrian army infected Moscow’s troops, whose ruthless military approach had for so long kept Mr Assad in office, leading them to decamp their sophisticated air defence systems and leave.
The Russia fleet appears to have fled its leased port of Tartus, either sailing to Libya or back to the motherland, where the war in Ukraine is demonstrably the Kremlin’s priority. The coming period will reveal how much reputational damage Syria has done to Russia’s standing in the Middle East and also if it impacts on its "Africa Corps" operating in the Sahel.
Iran runs away
The Syrian collapse will certainly lead to the diminished status of Iran and its once revered Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Instead of intervening to support the Al Assad regime, Iran ordered the emergency evacuation of its military and diplomatic staff from Damascus over the past week. Those officers had previously stiffened the sinew of the Syrian army and their absence in the last week has been conspicuous.
Like Moscow, and on a more dangerous scale for its rulers, Tehran has suffered yet another reputational blow. The repercussions of that could well prove significant after the deeply unpopular regime suffered continuous setbacks this year that might threaten its future.
Hezbollah absent
In the triangle of support for Syria, it has been the evisceration of its key ally Hezbollah that has come after two intense months of fighting the formidable Israeli military that has left it in a state of inertia. It was from 2011 that Hezbollah played and key role in training the Syria army and providing it with troops to take back or hold territory. But the once formidable military force has been denuded both of its leadership and foot soldiers from the Israeli war, leaving Syria near defenceless.
On paper, the Syrian army should have been able to hold its own with its hundreds of tanks, artillery and missiles. Yet, it appears to resemble the Iraqi army of 2014 that was marked by corruption and absence, where officers sent soldiers home on furlough but still took their pay leaving battalions so weakened that they were unable to halt the ISIS advance that took Mosul and then Tikrit.
On that occasion, the Baghdad government was largely saved from collapse by the intervention of precise heavy bombing from the US warplanes and special forces.
Lightning advances
Even the US and Nato-trained armies have proven to be vulnerable to the advances of motivated and disciplined adversaries. Despite the billions of dollars in advanced US equipment given to the Afghan army, and two decades of training, there was little will or strong leadership to prevent the Taliban takeover in just ten days in 2021 after the Americans suddenly pulled out.
Leadership is critical when armies come under pressure and soldiers need faith in the officers giving them commands that could lead to their death. Stalin’s purges of the Red Army meant there were very few experienced officers left to defend against the lightning Nazi Germany offensive of Operation Barbarossa in 1941, that left millions dead or captured until the invaders were halted just outside Moscow.
A year later, Britain too suffered its heaviest military defeat, when a smaller Japanese force of 30,000 stormed through Singapore in just eight days, capturing 85,000 soldiers.
Those were seismic events that shaped world politics, as undoubtedly the Syria army’s defeat will do in December 2024, proving that the unfolding drama of Hamas’ October 7 attack will continue to run.
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
Normal People
Sally Rooney, Faber & Faber
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
ETFs explained
Exhchange traded funds are bought and sold like shares, but operate as index-tracking funds, passively following their chosen indices, such as the S&P 500, FTSE 100 and the FTSE All World, plus a vast range of smaller exchanges and commodities, such as gold, silver, copper sugar, coffee and oil.
ETFs have zero upfront fees and annual charges as low as 0.07 per cent a year, which means you get to keep more of your returns, as actively managed funds can charge as much as 1.5 per cent a year.
There are thousands to choose from, with the five biggest providers BlackRock’s iShares range, Vanguard, State Street Global Advisors SPDR ETFs, Deutsche Bank AWM X-trackers and Invesco PowerShares.
Specs
Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh158,000 (Cooper), Dh168,000 (Aceman), Dh190,000 (Countryman)
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
ESSENTIALS
The flights
Emirates flies from Dubai to Phnom Penh via Yangon from Dh2,700 return including taxes. Cambodia Bayon Airlines and Cambodia Angkor Air offer return flights from Phnom Penh to Siem Reap from Dh250 return including taxes. The flight takes about 45 minutes.
The hotels
Rooms at the Raffles Le Royal in Phnom Penh cost from $225 (Dh826) per night including taxes. Rooms at the Grand Hotel d'Angkor cost from $261 (Dh960) per night including taxes.
The tours
A cyclo architecture tour of Phnom Penh costs from $20 (Dh75) per person for about three hours, with Khmer Architecture Tours. Tailor-made tours of all of Cambodia, or sites like Angkor alone, can be arranged by About Asia Travel. Emirates Holidays also offers packages.
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MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-finals, second leg:
Liverpool (0) v Barcelona (3), Tuesday, 11pm UAE
Game is on BeIN Sports
Cryopreservation: A timeline
- Keyhole surgery under general anaesthetic
- Ovarian tissue surgically removed
- Tissue processed in a high-tech facility
- Tissue re-implanted at a time of the patient’s choosing
- Full hormone production regained within 4-6 months
Janet Yellen's Firsts
- In 2014, she became the first woman to lead the US Federal Reserve
- In 1999, she became the first female chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
PROFILE BOX
Company name: Overwrite.ai
Founder: Ayman Alashkar
Started: Established in 2020
Based: Dubai International Financial Centre, Dubai
Sector: PropTech
Initial investment: Self-funded by founder
Funding stage: Seed funding, in talks with angel investors
The%20new%20Turing%20Test
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Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm
Price: From Dh1,700,000
Available: Now
PROFILE OF STARZPLAY
Date started: 2014
Founders: Maaz Sheikh, Danny Bates
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Entertainment/Streaming Video On Demand
Number of employees: 125
Investors/Investment amount: $125 million. Major investors include Starz/Lionsgate, State Street, SEQ and Delta Partners
Non-oil%20trade
%3Cp%3ENon-oil%20trade%20between%20the%20UAE%20and%20Japan%20grew%20by%2034%20per%20cent%20over%20the%20past%20two%20years%2C%20according%20to%20data%20from%20the%20Federal%20Competitiveness%20and%20Statistics%20Centre.%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EIn%2010%20years%2C%20it%20has%20reached%20a%20total%20of%20Dh524.4%20billion.%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ECars%20topped%20the%20list%20of%20the%20top%20five%20commodities%20re-exported%20to%20Japan%20in%202022%2C%20with%20a%20value%20of%20Dh1.3%20billion.%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EJewellery%20and%20ornaments%20amounted%20to%20Dh150%20million%20while%20precious%20metal%20scraps%20amounted%20to%20Dh105%20million.%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERaw%20aluminium%20was%20ranked%20first%20among%20the%20top%20five%20commodities%20exported%20to%20Japan.%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ETop%20of%20the%20list%20of%20commodities%20imported%20from%20Japan%20in%202022%20was%20cars%2C%20with%20a%20value%20of%20Dh20.08%20billion.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
HAJJAN
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Sholto Byrnes on Myanmar politics
EA Sports FC 26
Publisher: EA Sports
Consoles: PC, PlayStation 4/5, Xbox Series X/S
Rating: 3/5
COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
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Election pledges on migration
CDU: "Now is the time to control the German borders and enforce strict border rejections"
SPD: "Border closures and blanket rejections at internal borders contradict the spirit of a common area of freedom"
