Fuelling the fire or checkmate? Russia braced for western missile attack

President Vladimir Putin’s decision to use North Korean troops in the war against Ukraine and US President Joe Biden's approval for the use of advanced missiles deep into Russia signals a military race to achieve as much as possible before Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20.

Then it is expected that the new US president will attempt to enable a diplomatic solution to end the fighting between Russia and Ukraine.

As the war reaches is 1,000th day on Tuesday, the apparent authorisation of ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile Systems) alongside British and French cruise missiles on Russian soil is not only on a significant escalatory step but one that could inhibit Moscow’s hope of battlefield victory soon.

US officials have attempted to dampen escalation concerns, saying the weapons can be used only in the “specific and limited” of Kursk, near the border separating the two warring countries. However, that could soon change.

Mr Peskov said the decision marked a new escalation of tension but many of Ukraine's allies are stepping up support. A meeting of the foreign ministers of France, Poland, Germany, Italy, plus Spain, the UK and the incoming EU representative Kaja Kallas has been scheduled in Warsaw on Tuesday.

Checkmate hopes

It is the North Korean presence that Washington has put forward as justification to allow use of its weapons by Ukraine for the first time inside Russian territory.

Therefore, argued former British army officer Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, this could result in “check or checkmate” for Mr Putin after his questionable decision to draft in North Korean soldiers following an estimated 700,000 Russian casualties since he ordered the “special military operation”.

Now that Nato weapons could be raining down on Russia, there is little left in the Kremlin’s locker for retaliation, bar the nuclear option, which is highly unlikely.

“If you accept the argument that Russia can't escalate, you could argue that they're in checkmate or at least check,” said Col de Bretton-Gordon.

“The North Korea decision escalated the war beyond just a Russian-Ukrainian thing and it was a strategic mistake, because the North Koreans are the reason that Joe Biden has given for this ‘weapons-free’ attack on them.”

'Attack ‘em'

Military experts frequently argue there is no “silver bullet” for Ukraine repelling Russian from the 20 per cent of its seized territory. Western-supplied anti-tank missiles, air interceptors, tanks and F-16 fighters have all appeared on the battlefield, yet with no decisive effect.

Ukraine is still losing territory, currently at its highest rate since Russia invaded in February 2022, although this is at high cost, with Moscow losing a record daily average of 1,500 dead or wounded so far this month.

That is likely why Mr Putin called on his new North Korea ally to send more than 10,000 of its best troops to help. Those men now form the army of 50,000 that Moscow plans to use against the Ukrainians hanging on to 600 sq km of Russian territory in the Kursk region, which was seized in August.

But that army could very soon find the skies uncomfortably full of ATACMS (pronounced “attack-ems”) and Storm Shadow cruise missiles. Both bode ill for the defender.

The cluster-bomb variant of the ATACM contains up to 950 deadly M74 bomblets and has a range of 300km. Any North Korean or Russian unit forming to attack in Kursk will now be highly vulnerable, with the casualty count likely to surpass the current grim rate.

Storm Shadow torrent

If the ATACMS prove disturbing for troops mounting attacks, the release of Britain’s Storm Shadow and France’s similar Scalp cruise missile would be troubling for their generals.

With a range of 550km, the $2 million weapons carry a 950kg warhead that can penetrate deep into buildings and bunkers. What were previously regarded as safe command and control headquarters, ammunition dumps and airfields could soon be reduced to rubble.

Ukrainians will see that as a justifiable retort for Russia's assault on their energy infrastructure on Sunday that resulted in 20 civilian deaths.

The Kremlin will also understand the importance of positioning missile interceptors to protect its strategic sites, yet its air defence will come under immense pressure as it is required to protect Moscow, St Petersburg and other key areas from Ukraine’s drone attacks.

However, Sam Cranny-Evans, a military expert at the Rusi think tank, said permission to use the missiles was “too little, too late”, as Russia has moved most of its aircraft out of range of ATACMS.

“The impact may only be temporary,” he added. “To take out targets requires scale to achieve big effects. So it might take several Storm Shadows to properly destroy a bridge, or to guarantee that one makes it through air defence. The number Ukraine have isn’t clear and the platforms able to launch them are also limited.”

Third World War?

Vladimir Dzhabarov, of Russia’s foreign affairs committee, has warned that the US has taken “a very big step towards the beginning of a Third World War”.

The Kremlin responded that the US decision was "throwing oil on the fire" of the Ukraine conflict, although Mr Putin himself has yet to respond.

Russian state television also told viewers that the US, France and Britain were “directly entering into war with Russia, with all the ensuing consequences for their own territories and those who inhabit these territories”.

That sentiment was echoed by Mr Trump’s son Donald Jnr, who posted on X that “the military industrial complex seems to want to make sure they get World War 3 going before my father has a chance to create peace and save lives”.

Britain’s Defence Secretary John Healey hinted an announcement on Storm Shadow might come soon but refused to be drawn on the UK’s position during questions in parliament.

“I will not compromise operational security and comment on the details of long-range systems today,” he told MPs. “But we must double down on support for Ukraine and do so for as long as it takes.”

Germany, which has refused to send Kyiv its long-range Taurus cruise missile, on Monday announced it was delivering 4,000 AI-guided drones to Ukraine.

The drones "can be delivered very quickly" and could be "deployed 30km-40km behind the front line, and hit combat posts, logistics hubs among other targets", Defence Minister Boris Pistorius said.

Kursk critical

It is becoming more apparent that the Ukraine battlefield could well look very different before that moment arrives.

If Ukraine manages to hold on to Kursk until Christmas, it would put “Putin in a really, really challenging position”, when potential Trump negotiations begin, said Col de Bretton-Gordon.

Brig Ben Barry, of the IISS think tank, suggested in the best-case scenario the weapons could “slow the Russian offensive down”.

But he warned, too, that “it carries the risk of acts that have escalation consequences”, especially if a western missile caused Russian civilian casualties.

What will happen to Ukraine under a Trump presidency?

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“Just imagine if a Scalp missile or Storm Shadow overshoots the target and falls on a busy shopping area or a school,” he said.

Russia’s response could well be a “provocation”, perhaps firing a missile close to the Poland-Ukraine border, or other Nato states.

However, there are few options left for Moscow in a war that could well lead to the Russian economy imploding next year. And there could be more to come from the West to assist Kyiv, especially building on the idea of using Nato jets to shoot down Russian drones and missiles over Ukraine, as they did in Iran’s attacks on Israel.

But all of that could become redundant if Mr Putin’s long-term plan pays dividends and Mr Trump withdraws military aid to Ukraine.

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