Concerns are growing in the West that Russia is supplying North Korea with advanced nuclear missile technology that could change the balance of power in Asia, experts have told The National.
With reports that Pyongyang has given Moscow a division of up to 12,000 of its best-trained troops, analysts have disclosed that in return North Korea is receiving technology that will likely “supercharge” its long-running nuclear programme.
There is also the possibility that the technology could, in turn, be passed from North Korea to Iran, where it could lead to a rapid development of a nuclear weapon if Tehran decided on that route following more direct attacks from Israel.
North Korea has already supplied Russia with more than one million artillery rounds, rockets and drones. But it is now broadly accepted the regime has sent thousands of soldiers to Russia who are likely to be active in the Kursk area, where Ukraine holds about 600 square kilometres of territory it took in August.
Nuclear knowledge
There was growing indications that Russia might have given North Korea “nuclear know-how”, said former British army nuclear, chemical and biological warfare specialist Col Hamish de-Bretton-Gordon.
“That nuclear knowledge could be substantial and will destabilise the Far East,” he said. “If North Korea does have a credible nuclear capability, then the balance of power in that part of the world will become unbalanced.”
While Pyongyang had both missiles and nuclear warheads, the challenge was putting the two together into an effective weapon. “The difficulty they will have, as will the Iranians, is that that’s where you need the really clever learning that Russia will have.”
Military analyst Tim Ripley agreed that the Russian knowledge will prevent North Korea “wasting time going down dead-ends” with the ability to manufacture advanced nuclear weapons “in a year rather than three years” by rapidly integrating warheads on to long-range rockets.
“The Russians can tell them that ‘We tried that, it didn't work, but we tried this and it did work’, so they can cruise through and avoid wasting time and money,” he added.
Robert Peters, a nuclear deterrence research fellow at the US Heritage Foundation think tank, said that there was now “potential for Russia to supercharge North Korea’s nuclear and missile programme” as the closer ties would include “technical assistance”.
“A more modern North Korea would almost certainly be emboldened and far more aggressive,” he wrote, adding that the US, South Korea and Japan had to present a united front so that they were not “coerced by a confident, nuclear-armed North Korea”.
A more confident North Korea would also “make mischief for the United States and its allies in the Indo Pacific” which could also form part of its agreement with Moscow, said Brigadier Ben Barry of the IISS think tank.
Korean ‘cannon fodder’
The North Korea deployment suggests that Russia is running short of troops having suffered more than 600,000 casualties since it invaded Ukraine in early 2022, according to Nato estimates.
It also implies that Russian President Vladimir Putin is fearful of ordering a mass mobilisation that would involve the children of many of Moscow and St Petersburg’s middle classes who have largely been able to avoid the frontline.
Col de Bretton-Gordon said that the move demonstrated Russians were “really getting short of manpower” and that “Putin is running out of conscripts, and he really doesn't want to go to families of the elite” for more.
He added that there was also a suggestion from intelligence sources that some North Korean soldiers were keen to surrender to Ukraine rather than die in a foreign land.
Mr Ripley said that the Asian troops would simply be used as “cannon fodder” to plug the gaps in a war in which Russia is losing an estimated 1,200 dead and wounded a day.
Having not been to war since the Korean conflict that ended in stalemate in 1953, it is also unclear on the quality of the new troops, although they are likely to be better trained than raw recruits Russia has been feeding into the meat-grinder of Ukraine’s frontline.
There is also a possibility that the US or UK might allow Ukraine to use its long range precision strike weapons, such as the Storm Shadow cruise missile, to hit targets inside Russia as a result of the North Korea escalation.
The US, however, has given no indication that it will approve Ukraine's deep strike request.
