Will Iran's ballistic missile supply to Russia hurt Tehran and Moscow more than the West?

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and British Foreign Secretary David Lammy are in Kyiv to meet President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who has called on Ukraine's allies to permit long-range missile strikes on Russia.

“If I am optimistic about their decision to give us permission to use long-distance [missiles]. It is a pity it doesn’t depend on my optimism,” Mr Zelenskyy said on Wednesday. “It depends on [US and UK] optimism. Let’s count on some strong decisions on this.”

Such decisions would come against the backdrop of Iran’s decision to supply ballistic missiles to the Russian army and have perhaps unforeseen consequences. Western-made missiles hitting Russian bases in response could curtail Russian operations in Ukraine.

A weakened Russia is precisely the opposite of what Iran wants, but, analysts have told The National, this could well be the result of Tehran supplying about 400 short-range missiles to Moscow.

The outcome might not be entirely insignificant for Tehran either. The very fact that it has shipped missiles into Russia points to the regime ignoring the West's “red lines” again.

And it shows Iran’s greater willingness to flout those boundaries in the months ahead of the US presidential election, before a new Washington administration takes power, perhaps one more willing to conduct direct military action against it.

What is apparent is that after many months, pleading by Ukraine to allow missiles such as the Storm Shadow cruise or ATACMS precision-guided missiles to be used against targets inside Russia is now falling on receptive ears.

Even as Mr Lammy was arriving in Kyiv, the Iranian charge d’affaires in London, Ali Matinfar, was summoned to the Foreign Office, as were his counterparts in capitals across Europe.

“The UK government was clear in that any transfer of ballistic missiles to Russia would be seen as a dangerous escalation and would face a significant response,” a spokeswoman at Westminster said.

“The summons follows yesterday’s announcement where the UK, alongside international partners, outlined significant new measures against Iran and Russia, including cancelling our bilateral air services arrangement with Iran.”

UK Prime Minster Keir Starmer is scheduled to visit Washington on Friday to discuss Ukraine and the Middle East with President Joe Biden, a trip announced on Sunday.

That has moved the dial significantly towards Ukraine being granted permission to fire long-range missiles into Russia, a strategy that has given America a long pause for thought. That likelihood has grown closer after Mr Biden said he wanted to hear directly from Mr Zelenskyy on how Washington can help Ukraine.

No Tehran deterrent

After supplying hundreds of Shahed kamikaze drones to Russia, Iran has perhaps caused the Kremlin a significant headache with its latest arms.

The export of its ballistic weapons on to European soil was, according to Iran expert Kasra Aarabi, director of IRGC research at United Against Nuclear Iran, “a deeply disturbing development” with Iran “moving the goalposts again, this time in Europe, without any meaningful consequences being imposed on it”.

Mr Aarabi, formerly of the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change, said that the West’s failure to respond has “made Iran's regime believe that it can get away with escalation without facing any repercussions”, thereby setting a “very dangerous precedent”.

He said that there needed to be “a military deterrent on the table” and Iran was exploiting a lack of US response.

The IRGC was probably also taking advantage of President Biden’s last few months in the White House to “escalate without consequence” that included open discussion among its commanders “to weaponise its nuclear programme before a change in US administration that could result in a much more robust policy”.

Khamenei effect

Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei has demonstrated a survivor's instinct for opportunity since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 by moving Iran firmly into Moscow’s orbit.

“Khamenei believes he has found a very powerful partner in his clash of civilisations with the West in [Russian President] Vladmir Putin,” said Mr Aarabi. “He has sought to use every opportunity to deepen that relationship, because he's always been the junior partner when it comes to Putin, but Ukraine has created an opening to balance that relationship and make Putin a little bit dependent on him.”

If Russia suffers from significant western missile strikes, Mr Khamenei is likely to offer further military aid. Western missile strikes deep into Russia will cause Mr Khamenei "major angst" as a "weak Mr Putin is a threat to his own regime’s survival, given the key support Mr Putin has provided the ayatollah to preserve the Islamic Republic at home and abroad", Mr Aarabi said.

Screw tightened

Retired British Army colonel Hamish de Bretton Gordon said Iran’s move was a “strategic error” because it gave Ukraine the opportunity to send US and UK weapons deep into Russia.

“It's handed a brilliant get-out clause for the US who were previously being very timid,” said the military commentator. “If they've got enough Storm Shadows, [German-made] Taurus cruise and ATACMS that could have a profound effect on Russia's ability to strike deep into Ukraine.”

Some analysts have warned that there is no “silver bullet” to Ukraine defeating Russia, either with “game-changing” Abram tanks or F-16 fighters. But arming Ukraine with a missile arsenal that includes the US joint air-to-surface standoff missile (JASSM) with a range of up to 1,000km might make all the difference.

Targets for Ukraine in Russia would include airfields, missile launch sites, ammunition depots and command headquarters, albeit with the US and allies having some form of veto.

That would bear heavily on Russia’s counter offensive against Ukrainian forces in Kursk and elsewhere, said Mr de Bretton Gordon. “It's going to make that incredibly difficult for them, this will be a significant tightening of the screw.”

Powerless Pezeshkian

What the shipment to Russia – which was likely to have been agreed in December last year – also demonstrates is that the new reformist Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian is as much a part of Tehran's system as his conservative predecessors.

Having promised reform and engagement with Europe, he has signed off the placement of Iranian ballistic weapons on that continent.

“He's there to fulfil the supreme leader's will and, despite the reformist chatter, he’s just another rubber stamp,” said Mr Aarabi. “The IRGC are the drivers, and the West needs to wake up to that reality.”

Laure Foucher, of the Foundation for Strategic Research defence think tank in Paris, said Europeans must push for dialogue despite limited room for manoeuvre.

Yet the transfer of ballistic missiles "confirms that the election of the new President Pezeshkian won’t dramatically impact Tehran’s strategic orientations despite initial hopes that it would lead to calmer relations with the West,” she told The National.

The missile export decision was also in line with the shift in Iran-Russian relations since 2022, said Ms Foucher. “With the war in Ukraine, the Middle East has become Russia’s playing field for anti-western discourse and activities. Even if their bilateral co-operation is not endless, Moscow and Tehran’s common interests and fields of co-operation have grown.”