Work on a British intelligence dossier detailing a second Donald Trump presidency that plays out the impact of a return of the America First agenda is under way, led by the country's Secret Intelligence Service (MI6).
A former MI6 officer told The National that the government dossier would be a “nuanced” look at Mr Trump returning as president at a time when the Middle East influence exercised by the US and others has become “very messy”, something that is likely to persist during his administration.
“While a report is being compiled with SIS input, we don’t spy against the Americans because we are so interlinked,” the officer said. “There will be some SIS assessments but most will come from the Foreign Office.”
The dossier would likely be gaming the potential scenarios that might unfold
Alexander Lord
There are significant concerns for European security within the British security establishment, most immediately the strong possibility that Washington will withdraw military aid for Ukraine.
It is understood that the report has been compiled by MI6 officers alongside Foreign Office officials and other analysts including Defence Intelligence, a key lead on Ukraine.
World in turmoil
“If you look at the Middle East, Israel in particular, without US support in a second Trump presidency it is pretty much stuffed,” said retired Col Hamish de Bretton Gordon, a leading British military commentator.
“That is the biggest concern, that there’s nobody else who would come to the aid of Israel, so the Middle East, could get very, very messy.”
Trump’s Middle East
Middle East analysts warn that there is a fear that a Republican presidency would take more risks in pursuing its foreign policy goals than a Democratic one. “Some regional forces, particularly Iran, fear that the Trump administration would be more willing for military engagement and use of kinetic force in response to attacks by Iranian proxies,” said Noam Ostfeld, Middle East expert at Sibylline, a geopolitical risk advisory firm.
“This will challenge and likely limit Iranian activities in the region, impacting its plans to increase its regional influence.” There is also a concern that a Trump presidency could push Gulf powers to look more towards China and Asia for security and economic ties if America abandons its Middle East positions.
Mr Ostfeld also raised the possibility of America taking a back seat in Nato, leading to Turkey, an alliance member, having more influence given its Middle East links.
Trump accepts Republican presidential nomination – in pictures
He suggested that a big shift in policy regarding Gaza was unlikely, although under Mr Trump there might be “more allowance on military operations and possibly less tension about international humanitarian law”.
The former MI6 officer suggested that Mr Trump would give Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “even more free rein” than President Joe Biden as he was “more pro-Israeli and more anti-Iranian”.
“There's also a question about whether Trump could speak more directly to Netanyahu rather than chastising him and therefore maybe get concessions out of him,” he added.
Taking a measure
Closer to home, British officials are worried that support for Ukraine has peaked and could be scrapped under a Republican administration.
“Given that Donald Trump has from his own mouth cited some pretty major foreign policy impacts that could destabilise security of western security, Ukraine and the Middle East, China and Taiwan, it is not surprising urgent assessments are being made,” the former UK intelligence officer said.
He added that it would “negligent of the government” not to get the UK intelligence community drawing on all sources, including senior Republican figures who might have knowledge of Mr Trump’s plans.
As one of America’s closest allies, it is highly unlikely that MI6 would be actively “recruiting agents within the Trump circle” or using signals intelligence to gather information, he said.
“As Trump is so erratic and unpredictable they've got to plan for a worst-case scenario,” said Col de Bretton Gordon. “Trump is also very inward looking and everybody is deeply concerned that he’s saying he will cut Ukraine adrift.”
Nato and Ukraine
That eventuality is being examined after Mr Trump threatened to pull out of Nato during his first term arguing that countries were not paying enough for defence and America was picking up the tab.
BRussia’s invasion of Ukraine has dramatically changed the dynamic with Nato’s European countries now spending far more on defence.
Intelligence analysts are trying to understand the implications of Mr Trump’s promise to end the Ukraine war shortly after coming into office.
“The key implications which the UK is most concerned about is Trump's stance on Nato and as we don't know what Trump administration's foreign policy will be, the dossier would likely be gaming the potential scenarios that might unfold,” said Alexander Lord, lead Europe-Eurasia analyst for Sibylline.
He pointed to the Russian invasion “reinvigorating Nato as an alliance” which was very different to when Trump was last in power.
“But of course, US support for Ukraine is absolutely vital and if that was to dry up it would pose significant challenges to European and UK foreign policy for the next four years,” Mr Lord said.
If the Americans were to withdraw support Britain would have to take the lead in supporting Ukraine, but would likely find it more difficult to “take its allies with it” if its policy was contrary to that of Washington's, he added.
Britain’s Trump influence
Given Britain’s close alliance to America, that includes in-depth sharing of intelligence and strong relationships between the CIA and MI6, it should be able to exert more influence than most on its foreign policy.
While Mr Trump has a close affiliation to the UK, with his mother born in Scotland and several business interests in Britain, he was “politically and ideologically miles apart” from new Prime Minister Keir Starmer, said Col de Bretton Gordon.
“It's going to be more difficult for Starmer because I'm sure Trump views him as very left wing,” he added. “Hopefully, along with MI6 doing all their work, the new Labour team will take on board the report’s recommendations on how to best prepare for a second Trump presidency.”
Other ways to buy used products in the UAE
UAE insurance firm Al Wathba National Insurance Company (AWNIC) last year launched an e-commerce website with a facility enabling users to buy car wrecks.
Bidders and potential buyers register on the online salvage car auction portal to view vehicles, review condition reports, or arrange physical surveys, and then start bidding for motors they plan to restore or harvest for parts.
Physical salvage car auctions are a common method for insurers around the world to move on heavily damaged vehicles, but AWNIC is one of the few UAE insurers to offer such services online.
For cars and less sizeable items such as bicycles and furniture, Dubizzle is arguably the best-known marketplace for pre-loved.
Founded in 2005, in recent years it has been joined by a plethora of Facebook community pages for shifting used goods, including Abu Dhabi Marketplace, Flea Market UAE and Arabian Ranches Souq Market while sites such as The Luxury Closet and Riot deal largely in second-hand fashion.
At the high-end of the pre-used spectrum, resellers such as Timepiece360.ae, WatchBox Middle East and Watches Market Dubai deal in authenticated second-hand luxury timepieces from brands such as Rolex, Hublot and Tag Heuer, with a warranty.
How to wear a kandura
Dos
- Wear the right fabric for the right season and occasion
- Always ask for the dress code if you don’t know
- Wear a white kandura, white ghutra / shemagh (headwear) and black shoes for work
- Wear 100 per cent cotton under the kandura as most fabrics are polyester
Don’ts
- Wear hamdania for work, always wear a ghutra and agal
- Buy a kandura only based on how it feels; ask questions about the fabric and understand what you are buying
Email sent to Uber team from chief executive Dara Khosrowshahi
From: Dara
To: Team@
Date: March 25, 2019 at 11:45pm PT
Subj: Accelerating in the Middle East
Five years ago, Uber launched in the Middle East. It was the start of an incredible journey, with millions of riders and drivers finding new ways to move and work in a dynamic region that’s become so important to Uber. Now Pakistan is one of our fastest-growing markets in the world, women are driving with Uber across Saudi Arabia, and we chose Cairo to launch our first Uber Bus product late last year.
Today we are taking the next step in this journey—well, it’s more like a leap, and a big one: in a few minutes, we’ll announce that we’ve agreed to acquire Careem. Importantly, we intend to operate Careem independently, under the leadership of co-founder and current CEO Mudassir Sheikha. I’ve gotten to know both co-founders, Mudassir and Magnus Olsson, and what they have built is truly extraordinary. They are first-class entrepreneurs who share our platform vision and, like us, have launched a wide range of products—from digital payments to food delivery—to serve consumers.
I expect many of you will ask how we arrived at this structure, meaning allowing Careem to maintain an independent brand and operate separately. After careful consideration, we decided that this framework has the advantage of letting us build new products and try new ideas across not one, but two, strong brands, with strong operators within each. Over time, by integrating parts of our networks, we can operate more efficiently, achieve even lower wait times, expand new products like high-capacity vehicles and payments, and quicken the already remarkable pace of innovation in the region.
This acquisition is subject to regulatory approval in various countries, which we don’t expect before Q1 2020. Until then, nothing changes. And since both companies will continue to largely operate separately after the acquisition, very little will change in either teams’ day-to-day operations post-close. Today’s news is a testament to the incredible business our team has worked so hard to build.
It’s a great day for the Middle East, for the region’s thriving tech sector, for Careem, and for Uber.
Uber on,
Dara
SERIE A FIXTURES
Friday Sassuolo v Torino (Kick-off 10.45pm UAE)
Saturday Atalanta v Sampdoria (5pm),
Genoa v Inter Milan (8pm),
Lazio v Bologna (10.45pm)
Sunday Cagliari v Crotone (3.30pm)
Benevento v Napoli (6pm)
Parma v Spezia (6pm)
Fiorentina v Udinese (9pm)
Juventus v Hellas Verona (11.45pm)
Monday AC Milan v AS Roma (11.45pm)
MATCH INFO
Scotland 59 (Tries: Hastings (2), G Horne (3), Turner, Seymour, Barclay, Kinghorn, McInally; Cons: Hastings 8)
Russia 0
White hydrogen: Naturally occurring hydrogen
Chromite: Hard, metallic mineral containing iron oxide and chromium oxide
Ultramafic rocks: Dark-coloured rocks rich in magnesium or iron with very low silica content
Ophiolite: A section of the earth’s crust, which is oceanic in nature that has since been uplifted and exposed on land
Olivine: A commonly occurring magnesium iron silicate mineral that derives its name for its olive-green yellow-green colour
A Long Way Home by Peter Carey
Faber & Faber
Milestones on the road to union
1970
October 26: Bahrain withdraws from a proposal to create a federation of nine with the seven Trucial States and Qatar.
December: Ahmed Al Suwaidi visits New York to discuss potential UN membership.
1971
March 1: Alex Douglas Hume, Conservative foreign secretary confirms that Britain will leave the Gulf and “strongly supports” the creation of a Union of Arab Emirates.
July 12: Historic meeting at which Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid make a binding agreement to create what will become the UAE.
July 18: It is announced that the UAE will be formed from six emirates, with a proposed constitution signed. RAK is not yet part of the agreement.
August 6: The fifth anniversary of Sheikh Zayed becoming Ruler of Abu Dhabi, with official celebrations deferred until later in the year.
August 15: Bahrain becomes independent.
September 3: Qatar becomes independent.
November 23-25: Meeting with Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid and senior British officials to fix December 2 as date of creation of the UAE.
November 29: At 5.30pm Iranian forces seize the Greater and Lesser Tunbs by force.
November 30: Despite a power sharing agreement, Tehran takes full control of Abu Musa.
November 31: UK officials visit all six participating Emirates to formally end the Trucial States treaties
December 2: 11am, Dubai. New Supreme Council formally elects Sheikh Zayed as President. Treaty of Friendship signed with the UK. 11.30am. Flag raising ceremony at Union House and Al Manhal Palace in Abu Dhabi witnessed by Sheikh Khalifa, then Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi.
December 6: Arab League formally admits the UAE. The first British Ambassador presents his credentials to Sheikh Zayed.
December 9: UAE joins the United Nations.
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Yahya Al Ghassani's bio
Date of birth: April 18, 1998
Playing position: Winger
Clubs: 2015-2017 – Al Ahli Dubai; March-June 2018 – Paris FC; August – Al Wahda
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
