For decades, Britain's prestigious universities and attractions have been a magnet for international students, with dozens of global leaders having being educated in the UK.
But the world has increasingly fallen out of love with British institutions and this week international applications to universities took an unexpected dip.
Rising fees, visa changes and global competition have lured students elsewhere, leaving UK universities fearing a financial black hole.
Nick Hillman, from the Higher Education Policy Institute think tank, told The National an international drop across the board has hit master's student numbers harder but it is having a real effect on all overseas applications.
"There has been a big drop in applications from overseas," Mr Hillman said.
"It results from the changes to the rules on bringing dependants instituted in January 2024 as well as from a range of other factors, like Nigeria’s economic problems.
"However, our new government has made it clear that they want to see a very warm welcome for new international students and I hope this will help to reverse the decline."
A report by the think tank, along with Universities UK International and Kaplan International Pathways, revealed the economic benefit from international students to the UK economy rose from £31.3 billion ($40.24 billion) to £41.9 billion between 2018-19 to 2021-/22, for an increase of 34 per cent.
The Russell Group, which represents the UK’s leading universities, estimates that English universities supplemented the cost of undergraduate education by an average of £2,500 a student a year in 2022-23.
It said much of this was through international fees, which make up between a fifth and a third of income for most Russell Group universities, and as a result the overseas fees have enable their members to increase UK undergraduate numbers by 43 per cent since 2012-13.
This week it saw places in clearing – which allows applicants without the offer of a place or who want to change courses after they have received their exam results – for domestic students passing their A-Levels increase.
A survey of 130 of the UK’s biggest universities found 23,000 course vacancies being offered to students through clearing, compared to 22,400 last year.
Education experts say some British universities will be competing to fill their places amid financial pressures.
Visa restrictions on international students
In January, visa restrictions were introduced to prevent most international students bringing dependants to the UK, and this is believed to have affected applications.
"Stability in government policy on international students and a more positive rhetoric around UK higher education will ensure the UK remains a leading destination for international students, benefitting domestic students and businesses," the Russell Group said.
"International students help create a diverse learning environment at UK universities, bringing new skills and perspectives which benefit home students.
"The resources they bring have also been vital in addressing teaching deficits and increasing the number of places for UK undergraduates
"Whilst international student numbers grew in the UK following the pandemic, this was partly a result of exiting lockdown before competitors.
"Numbers are now falling as the market cools and new visa fees and restrictions are taking effect, including provisions banning taught master's students from bringing family members."
The Migration Advisory Committee estimates the ban on dependants could lead to a fall of 120,000 in annual migration, and Home Office data shows 62,600 (39 per cent) fewer students and dependants applied for study visas in the first six months of 2024 than in the same period last year.
In May, most Russell Group universities reported a decline in international master's applications compared to May 2023, with an overall drop of 10 per cent for September 2024 starts.
"Any further measures aimed at reducing international student numbers could have a significant impact on the sector and its contribution to economic growth and UK skills," the group said.
"Russell Group modelling suggests a 10 per cent reduction in international student numbers would reduce our universities’ collective income by over £500 million a year.
"Recommitting to the principles of the International Education Strategy, providing a welcoming environment and a stable, competitive visa offer, would help universities recruit responsibly and protect all the benefits international students bring to the UK."
On Thursday, Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson said the government does not intend to remove visa restrictions, which were put in place by the previous government.
“We don’t intend to change that,” Ms Phillipson said. “But what I do say is that international students who come to our country and study do make a tremendous contribution.”
Universities start lowering entry requirements
This year, Nottingham University and York University announced they were lowering their entry requirements for prospective international students.
Global competition has intensified with countries such as Canada and Germany making significant strides in attracting talent through competitive tuition fees and post-study work opportunities.
University and College Union general secretary, Jo Grady, told The National that institutions are under threat due to financial difficulties and they need government reform.
“Universities across the UK are cutting costs, with thousands of jobs at risk, and it may only be a matter of time before an institution risks going under altogether," Ms Grady said.
"This cannot be allowed to happen. Educators and students must not pay the price for government misrule and university mismanagement.
“Our universities, and wider society, are enriched by the students and academics that come to this country to study, carry out research and share their knowledge.
"We urgently need reform of the current higher education funding system to put an end to over-reliance on international student fee income, and for the new government to commit to support any universities in financial dire straits.”
In an online seminar this week hosted by the Higher Education Policy Institute, Dr Jo Saxton, the Universities and Colleges Admissions Service chief executive, said she was concerned about a decline in applications from mature-aged students, as it received the “second highest ever number of 18-year-old applicants on record”.
“I am sure it is a concern for policymakers and others out there, and particularly interest from that cohort in the courses that the nation really needs more of. So anything healthcare aligned, nursing in particular, teaching," Dr Saxton said.
“And then of course we are also seeing differences in international behaviour.”
Dr Saxton said Ucas only receives about two thirds of all international undergraduate applicants, as some apply to British universities through agents.
However, there had been some changes in behaviour of applicants in two countries in particular, compared to previous years.
“There has been a significant decline in applications from Nigeria this year, related very much to economic conditions and the situation there," Dr Saxton said.
“But I think Nigeria aside, the Ucas picture from international interest is pretty stable and similar to what it has been in previous years.
“There was a surge in interest from Turkey, which is a new growth market that is really interesting. And one of my colleagues is about to go off there to understand more about why that is.”
Middle East market
The Middle East has been identified as a key future market. UAE students are bucking the trend with 1,620 accepted this week, compared to 1,430 last year and 1,270 in 2022.
Figures released this week by the Higher Education Statistics Agency showed that Saudi Arabia and the UAE were among the top 10 places where there had been a steady rise in students applying to the UK.
Independent school WPM, which has Emirati royalty among its past students, told The National it will be focusing its attention on the Middle East and North Africa over coming months.
"We all hope the Mena region has all the hallmarks and signs that it can help the education sector in the future," it said.
It is hoping the Middle East's students attracted to the school will continue their university studies in the UK afterwards.
The British Council has also identified the Mena region as a future market and has been working on a collaboration with Saudi Arabia.
