What Labour's victory in UK election means for the Middle East


Thomas Harding
  • English
  • Arabic

Live updates: Follow the latest news on the UK general election

Keir Starmer’s first official briefing as Prime Minister after a landslide election victory is set to be held in a secure room with intelligence chiefs on the security threats facing the UK, one that could define Labour’s return to government.

The Middle East will play a significant role in that closed-door meeting, analysts and diplomats have told The National, with both opportunities and threats to be discussed, including growing fears of war between Hezbollah and Israel.

Gaza will clearly be a key issue but also one in which the new government could provide impetus for a deal, experts have said.

Iran will continue to prove a challenge, potentially an ever-increasing one with its developing nuclear weapons programme, as well as the possibility of a Donald Trump presidency that could release “trigger happy” Republicans on to the Middle East.

Foreign reshuffle

Mr Starmer's first major foreign policy act may well be to replace Foreign Secretary David Lammy with a more experienced hand, a Labour insider told The National.

“Many people in and around government think that it would be pretty unwise to keep him in post and Labour should really think about shifting it to someone who has a more nuanced view of the Gaza conflict, not a view that's going to lead to anything disastrous,” the former adviser said.

From left, Labour's Ed Miliband, Keir Starmer and David Lammy at the Cop28 climate conference in Dubai. Getty Images
From left, Labour's Ed Miliband, Keir Starmer and David Lammy at the Cop28 climate conference in Dubai. Getty Images

That someone may well be former international development secretary Douglas Alexander, although this is strongly denied by Labour.

“The question is what talents Starmer chooses to draw on, as Labour have been out of power for so long that it's front benches are a little bit short of real-world experience,” said former ambassador to Yemen, Edmund Fitton-Brown.

“You've got people like Douglas Alexander who could be used that way, especially if Starmer anticipates that the UK is going to face a number of difficult decisions in the foreign policy arena and face them fairly quickly.”

Lebanon looms

The speed at which world events develop could be lightning fast.

“Unless we're extraordinarily lucky, we're going to face some kind of blow up between Israel and Hezbollah and it's not going to be pretty,” said Mr Fitton-Brown.

If that happens, then the Yemeni Houthis will step up their Red Sea attacks, as will Iran via its proxies.

But more challenging will be whether Mr Starmer unequivocally backs Israel and the repercussions that might result from that among his pro-Palestinian MPs. In its manifesto, Labour said it would work to recognise Palestine a part of a renewed peace process.

Despite an outstanding majority, Labour was dented in its heartlands with independent candidates standing on a Gaza platform making inroads.

A destroyed car and houses in the heavily damaged Hezbollah stronghold town of Aita al Chaab, southern Lebanon. Getty Images
A destroyed car and houses in the heavily damaged Hezbollah stronghold town of Aita al Chaab, southern Lebanon. Getty Images

Gaza outcomes

If the Gaza conflict is resolved then the war with Lebanon will probably recede, yet current hopes of a ceasefire are distant.

But the new Labour administration has the opportunity to seize the initiative on an issue that has witnessed a “vacuum of western leadership” since the Hamas October 7 attacks, said Dr Sanam Vakil, of the Chatham House think tank.

A “dedicated envoy” with the clout that former foreign secretary David Cameron brought to the job, such as David Miliband, another former foreign secretary, could be one appointment.

“Britain certainly has an opportunity to lead the way, bringing together western partners working with countries across the region on Palestinian statehood and Israeli security,” said Dr Vakil. “And there's some great ideas but there should be some greater co-ordination and alignment between Washington, Whitehall and Europe on how they're going to move things forward.”

The potential return of Donald Trump should provide the incentive for the UK government to be “more robust and engaged” in finding a rapid solution, he added.

Michael Stevens, of the Rusi think tank, believes the first six months of a Starmer premiership “are going to be defined in the Middle East” in finding a solution to Gaza.

A man sits at a ruined building following Israeli strikes in Nuseirat refugee camp, central Gaza Strip. Reuters
A man sits at a ruined building following Israeli strikes in Nuseirat refugee camp, central Gaza Strip. Reuters

One pitfall would be that if he is “not seen to be on the right side” by his large grouping of pro-Palestinian back benchers, he will feel increasing political pressure.

While there would be pressure for Labour to follow through on its commitment to recognise a Palestinian state, Mr Fitton-Brown argued that Mr Starmer was unlikely to follow the “gesture politics” of other European states.

Two-state principle

Dr Michael Milshtein, head of Palestinian studies at Tel Aviv University, urged the new Labour government to understand that a two-state solution cannot “really be implemented today”.

“It should be a ‘two-state principle’, which is actually separation, and that is the thing London should demand from Israel.”

He added that Mr Starmer assistance in the normalisation of relations between Israel and the Arab world “could be very helpful”.

Trump card

All Labour’s foreign policies could be turned on their heads with the possible return of Trump to the White House.

Republican hardliners within that administration will be “much more trigger happy” than previously, said Mr Fitton-Brown, speaking from New York.

Former US president Donald Trump could return to power. Reuters
Former US president Donald Trump could return to power. Reuters

“They will look at the Middle East and say, ‘we're going to start showing people who’s boss' and with Trump that's going to include things like assassinating the new equivalent target of people like Qassem Suleimani [former IRGC commander].”

Mr Stevens suggested a Trump administration’s policy on Iran will “turn very hawkish, very fast”, especially with Iran continuing with their uranium enrichment capabilities to “pretty threatening levels”.

There was little chance of a nuclear deal, in part because the Iranians did not trust the US system to honour one, given that Mr Trump dumped the previous agreement.

From Labour’s perspective, it was a question of would they contain Iran with sanctions or engage with it with an economic relationship, which he deemed unlikely.

Dr Vakil said for Labour to have “a greater portfolio of engagement” across the region “because there are a number of interconnected conflicts that haven't really been resolved”.

Instead these had been “contained” but unless areas such as Sudan, Syria and Libya were addressed they could significantly worsen.

Gulf economy

Dr Vakil said the Conservative government had been too focused on a “very commercially based relationships” with the Gulf that reflected its “inward facing outlook” post-Brexit.

“The Gulf remains our biggest economic focus, and probably the largest focus of diplomatic activity, whether that's through sending ministers or prioritising a free-trade agreement,” she said.

Britain should also be working with the Gulf states “to support their security concerns” and play a “bridging role” in the Iran relationship, she added.

But more importantly it could play a broader role in supporting Gulf security as “what's ultimately missing is a regional security framework and architecture” which was the “space that Labour could step up and into”.

Another quick win for Labour would be to reinstate the Middle East and North Africa ministerial post that was axed without explanation by Boris Johnson when he was prime minister in 2022.

Zakat definitions

Zakat: an Arabic word meaning ‘to cleanse’ or ‘purification’.

Nisab: the minimum amount that a Muslim must have before being obliged to pay zakat. Traditionally, the nisab threshold was 87.48 grams of gold, or 612.36 grams of silver. The monetary value of the nisab therefore varies by current prices and currencies.

Zakat Al Mal: the ‘cleansing’ of wealth, as one of the five pillars of Islam; a spiritual duty for all Muslims meeting the ‘nisab’ wealth criteria in a lunar year, to pay 2.5 per cent of their wealth in alms to the deserving and needy.

Zakat Al Fitr: a donation to charity given during Ramadan, before Eid Al Fitr, in the form of food. Every adult Muslim who possesses food in excess of the needs of themselves and their family must pay two qadahs (an old measure just over 2 kilograms) of flour, wheat, barley or rice from each person in a household, as a minimum.

The years Ramadan fell in May

1987

1954

1921

1888

Brief scoreline:

Wales 1

James 5'

Slovakia 0

Man of the Match: Dan James (Wales)

War and the virus
Fight card
  • Aliu Bamidele Lasisi (Nigeria) beat Artid Vamrungauea (Thailand) POINTS
  • Julaidah Abdulfatah (Saudi Arabia) beat Martin Kabrhel (Czech Rep) POINTS
  • Kem Ljungquist (Denmark) beat Mourad Omar (Egypt) TKO
  • Michael Lawal (UK) beat Tamas Kozma (Hungary) KO​​​​​​​
  • Zuhayr Al Qahtani (Saudi Arabia) beat Mohammed Mahmoud (UK) POINTS
  • Darren Surtees (UK) beat Kane Baker (UK) KO
  • Chris Eubank Jr (UK) beat JJ McDonagh (Ireland) TKO
  • Callum Smith (UK) beat George Groves (UK) KO
The years Ramadan fell in May

1987

1954

1921

1888

Nayanthara: Beyond The Fairy Tale

Starring: Nayanthara, Vignesh Shivan, Radhika Sarathkumar, Nagarjuna Akkineni

Director: Amith Krishnan

Rating: 3.5/5

Jetour T1 specs

Engine: 2-litre turbocharged

Power: 254hp

Torque: 390Nm

Price: From Dh126,000

Available: Now

UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The five pillars of Islam
Ipaf in numbers

Established: 2008

Prize money:  $50,000 (Dh183,650) for winners and $10,000 for those on the shortlist.

Winning novels: 13

Shortlisted novels: 66

Longlisted novels: 111

Total number of novels submitted: 1,780

Novels translated internationally: 66

Mia Man’s tips for fermentation

- Start with a simple recipe such as yogurt or sauerkraut

- Keep your hands and kitchen tools clean. Sanitize knives, cutting boards, tongs and storage jars with boiling water before you start.

- Mold is bad: the colour pink is a sign of mold. If yogurt turns pink as it ferments, you need to discard it and start again. For kraut, if you remove the top leaves and see any sign of mold, you should discard the batch.

- Always use clean, closed, airtight lids and containers such as mason jars when fermenting yogurt and kraut. Keep the lid closed to prevent insects and contaminants from getting in.

 

The five pillars of Islam

1. Fasting 

2. Prayer 

3. Hajj 

4. Shahada 

5. Zakat 

Five healthy carbs and how to eat them

Brown rice: consume an amount that fits in the palm of your hand

Non-starchy vegetables, such as broccoli: consume raw or at low temperatures, and don’t reheat  

Oatmeal: look out for pure whole oat grains or kernels, which are locally grown and packaged; avoid those that have travelled from afar

Fruit: a medium bowl a day and no more, and never fruit juices

Lentils and lentil pasta: soak these well and cook them at a low temperature; refrain from eating highly processed pasta variants

Courtesy Roma Megchiani, functional nutritionist at Dubai’s 77 Veggie Boutique

Specs
Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh158,000 (Cooper), Dh168,000 (Aceman), Dh190,000 (Countryman)
The burning issue

The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.

Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins

Read part two: how climate change drove the race for an alternative 

Read part one: how cars came to the UAE

UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
MATCH INFO

Euro 2020 qualifier

Ukraine 2 (Yaremchuk 06', Yarmolenko 27')

Portugal 1 (Ronaldo 72' pen)

Key figures in the life of the fort

Sheikh Dhiyab bin Isa (ruled 1761-1793) Built Qasr Al Hosn as a watchtower to guard over the only freshwater well on Abu Dhabi island.

Sheikh Shakhbut bin Dhiyab (ruled 1793-1816) Expanded the tower into a small fort and transferred his ruling place of residence from Liwa Oasis to the fort on the island.

Sheikh Tahnoon bin Shakhbut (ruled 1818-1833) Expanded Qasr Al Hosn further as Abu Dhabi grew from a small village of palm huts to a town of more than 5,000 inhabitants.

Sheikh Khalifa bin Shakhbut (ruled 1833-1845) Repaired and fortified the fort.

Sheikh Saeed bin Tahnoon (ruled 1845-1855) Turned Qasr Al Hosn into a strong two-storied structure.

Sheikh Zayed bin Khalifa (ruled 1855-1909) Expanded Qasr Al Hosn further to reflect the emirate's increasing prominence.

Sheikh Shakhbut bin Sultan (ruled 1928-1966) Renovated and enlarged Qasr Al Hosn, adding a decorative arch and two new villas.

Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan (ruled 1966-2004) Moved the royal residence to Al Manhal palace and kept his diwan at Qasr Al Hosn.

Sources: Jayanti Maitra, www.adach.ae

RESULTS

2pm: Handicap (PA) Dh40,000 (Dirt) 1,200m
Winner: Najem Al Rwasi, Fabrice Veron (jockey), Ahmed Al Shemaili (trainer)

2.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh40,000 (D) 2,000m
Winner: Fandim, Fernando Jara, Majed Al Jahouri

3pm: Maiden (PA) Dh40,000 (D) 1,700m
Winner: Harbh, Pat Cosgrave, Ahmed Al Mehairbi

3.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh40,000 (D) 1,700m
Winner: Wakeel W’Rsan, Richard Mullen, Jaci Wickham

4pm: Crown Prince of Sharjah Cup Prestige (PA) Dh200,000 (D) 1,200m
Winner: Jawaal, Fernando Jara, Majed Al Jahouri

4.30pm: Sheikh Ahmed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Cup (TB) Dh200,000 (D) 2,000m
Winner: Tailor’s Row, Royston Ffrench, Salem bin Ghadayer

The five pillars of Islam

1. Fasting

2. Prayer

3. Hajj

4. Shahada

5. Zakat 

The biog:

Languages: Arabic, Farsi, Hindi, basic Russian 

Favourite food: Pizza 

Best food on the road: rice

Favourite colour: silver 

Favourite bike: Gold Wing, Honda

Favourite biking destination: Canada 

TECH%20SPECS%3A%20APPLE%20IPHONE%2014%20PLUS
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDisplay%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%206.1%22%20Super%20Retina%20XDR%20OLED%2C%202778%20x%201284%2C%20458ppi%2C%20HDR%2C%20True%20Tone%2C%20P3%2C%201200%20nits%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EProcessor%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20A15%20Bionic%2C%206-core%20CPU%2C%205-core%20GPU%2C%2016-core%20Neural%20Engine%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMemory%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%206GB%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECapacity%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20128%2F256%2F512GB%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPlatform%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20iOS%2016%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMain%20camera%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dual%2012MP%20main%20(f%2F1.5)%20%2B%2012MP%20ultra-wide%20(f%2F2.4)%3B%202x%20optical%2C%205x%20digital%3B%20Photonic%20Engine%2C%20Deep%20Fusion%2C%20Smart%20HDR%204%2C%20Portrait%20Lighting%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMain%20camera%20video%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204K%20%40%2024%2F25%2F3060fps%2C%20full-HD%20%40%2025%2F30%2F60fps%2C%20HD%20%40%2030fps%3B%20HD%20slo-mo%20%40%20120%2F240fps%3B%20night%2C%20time%20lapse%2C%20cinematic%2C%20action%20modes%3B%20Dolby%20Vision%2C%204K%20HDR%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFront%20camera%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2012MP%20TrueDepth%20(f%2F1.9)%2C%20Photonic%20Engine%2C%20Deep%20Fusion%2C%20Smart%20HDR%204%3B%20Animoji%2C%20Memoji%3B%20Portrait%20Lighting%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFront%20camera%20video%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204K%20%40%2024%2F25%2F3060fps%2C%20full-HD%20%40%2025%2F30%2F60fps%2C%20HD%20slo-mo%20%40%20120fps%3B%20night%2C%20time%20lapse%2C%20cinematic%2C%20action%20modes%3B%20Dolby%20Vision%2C%204K%20HDR%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBattery%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204323%20mAh%2C%20up%20to%2026h%20video%2C%2020h%20streaming%20video%2C%20100h%20audio%3B%20fast%20charge%20to%2050%25%20in%2030m%3B%20MagSafe%2C%20Qi%20wireless%20charging%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EConnectivity%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Wi-Fi%2C%20Bluetooth%205.3%2C%20NFC%20(Apple%20Pay)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBiometrics%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Face%20ID%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EI%2FO%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Lightning%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECards%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dual%20eSIM%20%2F%20eSIM%20%2B%20SIM%20(US%20models%20use%20eSIMs%20only)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EColours%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Blue%2C%20midnight%2C%20purple%2C%20starlight%2C%20Product%20Red%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EIn%20the%20box%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20iPhone%2014%2C%20USB-C-to-Lightning%20cable%2C%20one%20Apple%20sticker%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dh3%2C799%20%2F%20Dh4%2C199%20%2F%20Dh5%2C049%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Gulf Under 19s final

Dubai College A 50-12 Dubai College B

TOURNAMENT INFO

2018 ICC World Twenty20 Asian Western Regional Qualifier
The top three teams progress to the Asia Qualifier

Thursday results
UAE beat Kuwait by 86 runs
Qatar beat Bahrain by five wickets
Saudi Arabia beat Maldives by 35 runs

Friday fixtures
10am, third-place playoff – Saudi Arabia v Kuwait
3pm, final – UAE v Qatar

The burning issue

The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE. 

Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on

Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins

Read part one: how cars came to the UAE

 

The five new places of worship

Church of South Indian Parish

St Andrew's Church Mussaffah branch

St Andrew's Church Al Ain branch

St John's Baptist Church, Ruwais

Church of the Virgin Mary and St Paul the Apostle, Ruwais

 

Real estate tokenisation project

Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.

The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.

Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.

Squid Game season two

Director: Hwang Dong-hyuk 

Stars:  Lee Jung-jae, Wi Ha-joon and Lee Byung-hun

Rating: 4.5/5

Company profile

Company: Eighty6 

Date started: October 2021 

Founders: Abdul Kader Saadi and Anwar Nusseibeh 

Based: Dubai, UAE 

Sector: Hospitality 

Size: 25 employees 

Funding stage: Pre-series A 

Investment: $1 million 

Investors: Seed funding, angel investors  

MATCH INFO

Manchester United 1 (Greenwood 77')

Everton 1 (Lindelof 36' og)

How to vote

Canadians living in the UAE can register to vote online and be added to the International Register of Electors.

They'll then be sent a special ballot voting kit by mail either to their address, the Consulate General of Canada to the UAE in Dubai or The Embassy of Canada in Abu Dhabi

Registered voters mark the ballot with their choice and must send it back by 6pm Eastern time on October 21 (2am next Friday) 

UK-EU trade at a glance

EU fishing vessels guaranteed access to UK waters for 12 years

Co-operation on security initiatives and procurement of defence products

Youth experience scheme to work, study or volunteer in UK and EU countries

Smoother border management with use of e-gates

Cutting red tape on import and export of food

The burning issue

The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.

Part three: an affection for classic cars lives on

Read part two: how climate change drove the race for an alternative 

Read part one: how cars came to the UAE

The years Ramadan fell in May

1987

1954

1921

1888

Results

2pm: Handicap Dh 90,000 1,800m; Winner: Majestic Thunder, Tadhg O’Shea (jockey), Satish Seemar (trainer).

2.30pm: Handicap Dh120,000 1,950m; Winner: Just A Penny, Sam Hitchcott, Doug Watson.

3pm: Handicap Dh105,000 1,600m; Winner: Native Appeal, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson.

3.30pm: Jebel Ali Classic Conditions Dh300,000 1,400m; Winner: Thegreatcollection, Adrie de Vries, Doug Watson.

4pm: Maiden Dh75,000 1,600m; Winner: Oktalgano, Xavier Ziani, Salem bin Ghadayer.

4.30pm: Conditions Dh250,000 1,400m; Winner: Madame Ellingtina, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar.

5pm: Maiden Dh75,000 1,600m; Winner: Mystery Land, Fabrice Veron, Helal Al Alawi.

5.30pm: Handicap Dh85,000 1,000m; Winner: Shanaghai City, Jesus Rosales, Rashed Bouresly.

CABINET%20OF%20CURIOSITIES%20EPISODE%201%3A%20LOT%2036
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EGuillermo%20del%20Toro%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Tim%20Blake%20Nelson%2C%20Sebastian%20Roche%2C%20Elpidia%20Carrillo%3Cbr%3ERating%3A%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The five pillars of Islam

1. Fasting

2. Prayer

3. Hajj

4. Shahada

5. Zakat 

If you go

The flights
Emirates flies from Dubai to Seattle from Dh5,555 return, including taxes.


The car
Hertz offers compact car rental from about $300 (Dh1,100) per week, including taxes. Emirates Skywards members can earn points on their car hire through Hertz.


The national park
Entry to Mount Rainier National Park costs $30 for one vehicle and passengers for up to seven days. Accommodation can be booked through mtrainierguestservices.com. Prices vary according to season. Rooms at the Holiday Inn Yakima cost from $125 per night, excluding breakfast.

Updated: July 07, 2024, 9:38 AM`