Surrey voters set to turn on UK finance minister Jeremy Hunt

Walking under the shading leaves of the affluent Surrey village of Shalford resplendent on a classic English summer’s day, the political tsunami rapidly approaching Britain appears remote.

Yet this once unassailable Conservative stronghold could soon become forever known as the seat where for the first time in modern British history a chancellor of the Exchequer was thrown out as its MP.

Yet the Tory toxicity has set in so deep that during The National’s visit to his constituency of Godalming and Ash, it appears that the chances of Mr Hunt remaining in post are slim.

The Electoral Calculus website puts the likelihood of retaining the seat at just 5 per cent, an astonishing turnaround for a place where he once had a majority of more than 28,000.

But he is not the only senior cabinet member now under threat of defenestration, with Electoral Calculus giving Defence Secretary Grant Shapps five per cent and former prime minister Liz Truss just two per cent chance of remaining MPs.

Place your bets

How could that possibly happen? The thumping majority won by Boris Johnson in 2019 with 365 MPs has been eroded by a collapse in Tory support initially caused by the Partygate scandal in which Downing Street workers blatantly ignored Covid-19 lockdown rules.

That ultimately led to Mr Johnson’s resignation but another bomb detonated under the party from Liz Truss’ 49-day premiership when she crashed the economy with unfunded tax cuts.

A sensible technocrat, Mr Sunak has righted the ship somewhat yet unwisely expended huge political capital on the questionable Rwanda deportation scheme.

Now his campaign is gaining notoriety as one of the worst, after it stumbled from the rain-soaked Downing Street election announcement to his D-Day early departure snub and more seriously to “Gamblegate”, with the Tories who allegedly knew the July 4 election date placing bets on it.

Lend me your votes

All the above has what pundits call “cut-through” to the electorate, hence why on this correspondent’s journey among the green lanes of southern England only one Conservative placard was spotted to the Liberal Democrat’s seven.

Thus the confident timbre in the man who will stand beside the chancellor as his likely political executioner at 3am on Friday when the Godalming result is declared.

Tall, affable and an effective political operator, Paul Follows is working towards victory by getting people to “tactically vote” for Lib Dems, even if they are not their first party of choice.

“Labour and Greens are going to lend us their vote this time because they want to see the Tories out,” he said.

Tactical voting is taking hold across Britain threatening once safe Conservative seats by people ditching their regular party and voting in favour of the person most likely to win who is not Tory.

Green goes Lib Dem

It doesn’t take long to find hardline Green voter Cecilia Taylor, 59, who has a billboard outside her home stating: “I’m Green. Voting Lib Dem. Stop the Tories.”

“We've simply got to get them out because they've been so disruptive to nature and so toxic generally,” she said.

She cites Ms Truss’ economic incompetence which saw her daughter’s mortgage rise by £500 a month to £1,700 as a significant motivation.

In her view, Mr Follows is “more of a collaborator than an agitator” whereas the “Conservatives just agitate”.

“A lot of us just want to see grown up conversations in parliament, not name-calling.”

Unrecognisable Tory

As leader of the local council, Mr Follows knows his beat intimately and at the 2019 election got within 8,000 votes on Mr Hunt.

Now, he says, the feel on the ground among Conservative voters is different as the impact of Tory scandals past and present is evident

“They’re reasonable, compassionate, progressive people, who want to see government managed professionally but they just don't identify with their party any more. It's not their values that have changed, it’s their party that has become unrecognisable to them.”

The problem for the genial Mr Hunt is that those well-to-do, once traditional Conservative voters, have had enough.

“Jeremy Hunt is a voice of reason,” said Roger, 62, on the doorstep of his well-appointed Surrey home. “But I do not want the Conservatives to be in power, however a strong opposition is important. What I don’t want to happen is for the Conservatives implode and for the right wingers to dictate its future policy.”

Pressed by The National on whether he might vote Lib Dem, the well-spoken Roger remained reticent. “I’ll keep it to myself, if you don’t mind,” he replied.

“But ultimately, I would prefer it if there was a hung parliament,” he added, suggesting other parties could then exercise a check on what looks like a Labour “supermajority”.

D-Day anger

In an area brimming with those who have served in the military – Mr Follows’ father served in the British army – it is Mr Sunak’s ill-advised early departure from the D-Day commemorations three weeks ago that continues to grate.

“It’s still coming up on the doorstep a lot,” he said. “It’s the last straw for how poor his political judgment was and that level of disrespect really lands with them. It’s a symbol of ‘the rules don't apply to us culture’ that is pervasive throughout the Conservative Party.”

Portillo moment?

Mr Hunt himself is braced for humiliation recently telling The Times that “I’ve had the conversation with my kids, I may not be an MP after the election,” and that his seat was “too close to call”.

Many pundits reference Mr Hunt’s impending downfall to the iconic 1997 election “Portillo moment” when the-then defence secretary Michael Portillo was the shattered metaphor for Conservative downfall after losing his seat to Labour.

That is why the Chancellor is now tramping the streets, vigorously knocking on doors to muster support to save his political career while civil servants run the Treasury.

A sign too of Conservative HQ nerves came on Wednesday when they parachuted the prime minister’s wife, Akshata Murty, on to the Surrey campaign trail to help garner votes.

Mr Hunt now shuns media interviews – slightly understandable given the concentration of questions on his looming loss – and instead uses Twitter to promote his credentials. “We are going to win this,” he proclaims on one, then looks rather awkward.

“It’s quite difficult for us to canvass with journalists in tow,” his media adviser said, rebuffing The National’s interview request. “His diary is incredibly hectic. He’s just focused on campaigning now.”

That diary may well soon free up after around 3.30am on Friday after the votes are counted, although with a strong business portfolio and experience as Britain’s finance chief will not, unlike many of his colleagues, see Mr Hunt out of work for long.