Britain’s ruling Conservatives face a political meltdown if parts of the electorate conduct a “pincer movement” using tactical voting to oust its councillors in local polls next week, political scientists have told The National.
There is a strong chance people disenchanted with the Conservative’s 14 years in power will vote against their first choice by opting for Labour or Liberal Democrat councillors to ensure a Tory candidate does not win.
This will have significant ramifications on the future of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak who could face a vote of no confidence in his leadership if his party loses more than 550 local government seats, said Prof Tony Travers, a leading political commentator at the London School of Economics.
It would also suggest come the general election, probably this autumn, the Conservatives would be on track to lose heavily with Labour forming the next government.
Pincer movements
The number of crossover tactical voters in Britain, people who will opt for a party other than their first choice to defeat a Conservative candidate, has risen from 13 per cent in 2015 to 22 per cent last year. The number is believed to be increasing.
That poses a significant risk to the Tories who, if some in-depth polls suggest, could drop to as few as 90 seats or fewer down from their current 346 MPs.
“The risk is that they suffer from tactical voting with people thinking ‘who do I vote for to get the Conservatives out?’” said Prof Travers. “Is it Labour or the Liberal Democrats and that will differ from place to place.”
The Tories are not helped by several websites that allow people to work out who to vote for to keep them out.
“It could well come to pass that the Conservatives face a pincer movement in that Labour does well against in its former ‘Red Wall’ seats in the Midlands and the north of England, whereas the Liberal Democrats would eat up some of the Conservative votes in the south-east and south-west of England,” said Prof Travers.
Under Mr Sunak the party remains deeply unpopular, with Prof Sara Hobolt, also of the LSE, saying this meant “most voters have decided this government is just not competent to govern the country".
“They don’t necessarily love Labour, it’s just that Rishi Sunak has not managed to turn things around. The Conservatives are being squeezed from both sides.”
She said the Tories were a “very unpopular government” largely as a result of Boris Johnson's incompetence and lack of integrity, coupled with the disastrously brief leadership of Liz Truss.
Win from losing
With this week's passing of the Rwanda deportation bill along with good economic figures including lower inflation, there’s a remote chance that the Conservatives will not perform badly.
If they lost 400 seats in next Thursday’s local election this would be regarded as a “victory” and might impel Mr Sunak to call a general election in June.
“If the Conservatives thought the local elections were not quite as bad as they might think, they might say ‘let's just go for it, this is as good as it's ever going to be’,” said Prof Travers.
Change PM?
Losing 500 council seats would be acceptable, with a general election in autumn, possibly after the US November 5 presidential election.
But a loss of more than 550 would be seen as extremely bad, especially if the pincer move of tactical voting happens in the south and north of England.
That could lead to Conservative MPs submitting letters of no confidence in Mr Sunak that might result in a leadership challenge and potentially a change of prime minister.
“A number of Conservative MP would think ‘we can't be any worse off by having a new leader than we are now” however absurd having yet another new leader might look,” said Prof Travers.
Prof Hobolt agreed that MPs might become so nervous that they considered a change of leader as the “alternative is they are going to be wiped out”.
Some Muslim voters 'will stay at home'
The Israel-Gaza war is likely to have some effect on the vote, especially in the London mayor contest where Labour’s Sadiq Khan is seeking a record third term.
While Mr Khan, who is Muslim, is ahead in the polls and likely to win, his vote could be significantly diminished by Labour’s refusal to back calls for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza.
“There's no doubt that what's going on in Gaza and Palestine is having an impact on British politics,” said Prof Travers.
There were many Muslims and several left-wing voters who “won't vote Labour at the moment” or will stay at home.
“If it was a very tight race that could make a difference, but it’s probably not enough in the end to gift it to Susan Hall [the Conservative candidate] by stay-at-home voters,” he said.
Most successful party
Even when confronted with election disaster, as they were in 1846,1906 and 1997, the Conservatives have proven “arguably the most successful political party in the world ever” regularly staging comebacks, said Prof Travers.
While it will almost certainly not be Mr Sunak who leads the party after the election the prime minister can take some comfort from the academic’s argument that his party “has an amazing capacity for self-preservation and renewal”.
“While it takes them years to rebuild with infighting and choosing leaders that are unelectable, the Conservatives eventually pull themselves together,” he said.
The Melbourne Mercer Global Pension Index
The Melbourne Mercer Global Pension Index
Mazen Abukhater, principal and actuary at global consultancy Mercer, Middle East, says the company’s Melbourne Mercer Global Pension Index - which benchmarks 34 pension schemes across the globe to assess their adequacy, sustainability and integrity - included Saudi Arabia for the first time this year to offer a glimpse into the region.
The index highlighted fundamental issues for all 34 countries, such as a rapid ageing population and a low growth / low interest environment putting pressure on expected returns. It also highlighted the increasing popularity around the world of defined contribution schemes.
“Average life expectancy has been increasing by about three years every 10 years. Someone born in 1947 is expected to live until 85 whereas someone born in 2007 is expected to live to 103,” Mr Abukhater told the Mena Pensions Conference.
“Are our systems equipped to handle these kind of life expectancies in the future? If so many people retire at 60, they are going to be in retirement for 43 years – so we need to adapt our retirement age to our changing life expectancy.”
Saudi Arabia came in the middle of Mercer’s ranking with a score of 58.9. The report said the country's index could be raised by improving the minimum level of support for the poorest aged individuals and increasing the labour force participation rate at older ages as life expectancies rise.
Mr Abukhater said the challenges of an ageing population, increased life expectancy and some individuals relying solely on their government for financial support in their retirement years will put the system under strain.
“To relieve that pressure, governments need to consider whether it is time to switch to a defined contribution scheme so that individuals can supplement their own future with the help of government support,” he said.
Story%20behind%20the%20UAE%20flag
%3Cp%3EThe%20UAE%20flag%20was%20first%20unveiled%20on%20December%202%2C%201971%2C%20the%20day%20the%20UAE%20was%20formed.%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EIt%20was%20designed%20by%20Abdullah%20Mohammed%20Al%20Maainah%2C%2019%2C%20an%20Emirati%20from%20Abu%20Dhabi.%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EMr%20Al%20Maainah%20said%20in%20an%20interview%20with%20%3Cem%3EThe%20National%3C%2Fem%3E%20in%202011%20he%20chose%20the%20colours%20for%20local%20reasons.%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EThe%20black%20represents%20the%20oil%20riches%20that%20transformed%20the%20UAE%2C%20green%20stands%20for%20fertility%20and%20the%20red%20and%20white%20colours%20were%20drawn%20from%20those%20found%20in%20existing%20emirate%20flags.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
David Haye record
Total fights: 32
Wins: 28
Wins by KO: 26
Losses: 4
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Conflict, drought, famine
Estimates of the number of deaths caused by the famine range from 400,000 to 1 million, according to a document prepared for the UK House of Lords in 2024.
It has been claimed that the policies of the Ethiopian government, which took control after deposing Emperor Haile Selassie in a military-led revolution in 1974, contributed to the scale of the famine.
Dr Miriam Bradley, senior lecturer in humanitarian studies at the University of Manchester, has argued that, by the early 1980s, “several government policies combined to cause, rather than prevent, a famine which lasted from 1983 to 1985. Mengistu’s government imposed Stalinist-model agricultural policies involving forced collectivisation and villagisation [relocation of communities into planned villages].
The West became aware of the catastrophe through a series of BBC News reports by journalist Michael Buerk in October 1984 describing a “biblical famine” and containing graphic images of thousands of people, including children, facing starvation.
Band Aid
Bob Geldof, singer with the Irish rock group The Boomtown Rats, formed Band Aid in response to the horrific images shown in the news broadcasts.
With Midge Ure of the band Ultravox, he wrote the hit charity single Do They Know it’s Christmas in December 1984, featuring a string of high-profile musicians.
Following the single’s success, the idea to stage a rock concert evolved.
Live Aid was a series of simultaneous concerts that took place at Wembley Stadium in London, John F Kennedy Stadium in Philadelphia, the US, and at various other venues across the world.
The combined event was broadcast to an estimated worldwide audience of 1.5 billion.
What sanctions would be reimposed?
Under ‘snapback’, measures imposed on Iran by the UN Security Council in six resolutions would be restored, including:
- An arms embargo
- A ban on uranium enrichment and reprocessing
- A ban on launches and other activities with ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons, as well as ballistic missile technology transfer and technical assistance
- A targeted global asset freeze and travel ban on Iranian individuals and entities
- Authorisation for countries to inspect Iran Air Cargo and Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines cargoes for banned goods
The years Ramadan fell in May
Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm
Price: From Dh1,700,000
Available: Now
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
Scorline
Iraq 1-0 UAE
Iraq Hussein 28’
Results
5pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (Turf) 1,200m. Winner: Majd Al Megirat, Sam Hitchcott (jockey), Ahmed Al Shehhi (trainer)
5.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,600m. Winner: Dassan Da, Patrick Cosgrave, Helal Al Alawi
6pm: Abu Dhabi Fillies Classic Prestige (PA) Dh110,000 (T) 1,400m. Winner: Heba Al Wathba, Richard Mullen, Jean de Roualle
6.30pm: Abu Dhabi Colts Classic Prestige (PA) Dh110,000 (T) 1,400m. Winner: Hameem, Adrie de Vries, Abdallah Al Hammadi
7pm: Wathba Stallions Cup Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (T) 2,200m. Winner: Jawal Al Reef, Richard Mullen, Ahmed Al Mehairbi
Handicap (TB) Dh100,000 (T) 2,200m. Winner: Harbour Spirit, Adrie de Vries, Jaber Ramadhan.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
If you go
Flying
Despite the extreme distance, flying to Fairbanks is relatively simple, requiring just one transfer in Seattle, which can be reached directly from Dubai with Emirates for Dh6,800 return.
Touring
Gondwana Ecotours’ seven-day Polar Bear Adventure starts in Fairbanks in central Alaska before visiting Kaktovik and Utqiarvik on the North Slope. Polar bear viewing is highly likely in Kaktovik, with up to five two-hour boat tours included. Prices start from Dh11,500 per person, with all local flights, meals and accommodation included; gondwanaecotours.com
Key 2013/14 UAE Motorsport dates
October 4: Round One of Rotax Max Challenge, Al Ain (karting)
October 1: 1 Round One of the inaugural UAE Desert Championship (rally)
November 1-3: Abu Dhabi Grand Prix (Formula One)
November 28-30: Dubai International Rally
January 9-11: 24Hrs of Dubai (Touring Cars / Endurance)
March 21: Round 11 of Rotax Max Challenge, Muscat, Oman (karting)
April 4-10: Abu Dhabi Desert Challenge (Endurance)
What are the GCSE grade equivalents?
- Grade 9 = above an A*
- Grade 8 = between grades A* and A
- Grade 7 = grade A
- Grade 6 = just above a grade B
- Grade 5 = between grades B and C
- Grade 4 = grade C
- Grade 3 = between grades D and E
- Grade 2 = between grades E and F
- Grade 1 = between grades F and G
How England have scored their set-piece goals in Russia
Three Penalties
v Panama, Group Stage (Harry Kane)
v Panama, Group Stage (Kane)
v Colombia, Last 16 (Kane)
Four Corners
v Tunisia, Group Stage (Kane, via John Stones header, from Ashley Young corner)
v Tunisia, Group Stage (Kane, via Harry Maguire header, from Kieran Trippier corner)
v Panama, Group Stage (Stones, header, from Trippier corner)
v Sweden, Quarter-Final (Maguire, header, from Young corner)
One Free-Kick
v Panama, Group Stage (Stones, via Jordan Henderson, Kane header, and Raheem Sterling, from Tripper free-kick)
The chef's advice
Troy Payne, head chef at Abu Dhabi’s newest healthy eatery Sanderson’s in Al Seef Resort & Spa, says singles need to change their mindset about how they approach the supermarket.
“They feel like they can’t buy one cucumber,” he says. “But I can walk into a shop – I feed two people at home – and I’ll walk into a shop and I buy one cucumber, I’ll buy one onion.”
Mr Payne asks for the sticker to be placed directly on each item, rather than face the temptation of filling one of the two-kilogram capacity plastic bags on offer.
The chef also advises singletons not get too hung up on “organic”, particularly high-priced varieties that have been flown in from far-flung locales. Local produce is often grown sustainably, and far cheaper, he says.
COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Haltia.ai%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202023%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECo-founders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Arto%20Bendiken%20and%20Talal%20Thabet%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%2C%20UAE%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20AI%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2041%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20About%20%241.7%20million%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Self%2C%20family%20and%20friends%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Sri Lanka-India Test series schedule
- 1st Test India won by 304 runs at Galle
- 2nd Test India won by innings and 53 runs at Colombo
- 3rd Test August 12-16 at Pallekele
Results
STAGE
1 . Filippo Ganna (Ineos) - 0:13:56
2. Stefan Bissegger (Education-Nippo) - 0:00:14
3. Mikkel Bjerg (UAE Team Emirates) - 0:00:21
4. Tadej Pogacar (UAE Team Emirates) - 0:00:24
5. Luis Leon Sanchez (Astana) - 0:00:30
GENERAL CLASSIFICATION
1. Tadej Pogacar (UAE Team Emirates) - 4:00:05
2. Joao Almeida (QuickStep) - 0:00:05
3. Mattia Cattaneo (QuickStep) - 0:00:18
4. Chris Harper (Jumbo-Visma) - 0:00:33
5. Adam Yates (Ineos) - 0:00:39
HER%20FIRST%20PALESTINIAN
%3Cp%3EAuthor%3A%20Saeed%20Teebi%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EPages%3A%20256%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EPublisher%3A%C2%A0House%20of%20Anansi%20Press%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Pearls on a Branch: Oral Tales
Najlaa Khoury, Archipelago Books
The specs
Engine: Direct injection 4-cylinder 1.4-litre
Power: 150hp
Torque: 250Nm
Price: From Dh139,000
On sale: Now
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
From Zero
Artist: Linkin Park
Label: Warner Records
Number of tracks: 11
Rating: 4/5
