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Never before has Israel suffered a missile attack on such a scale after Iran launched a sophisticated first assault on the country that ultimately failed.
Military analysts have told The National Iran's wave of 120 modern ballistic missiles was not designed to be symbolic but a major attempt to overwhelm Israel’s air defences.
The failure of Tehran’s assault will also have a significant psychological impact on the country's missile deterrence value as in the past its leaders have threatened their stockpile would “raze Tel Aviv and Haifa”.
Not symbolic
There is an argument the strike was a calibrated response to Israel’s bombing of Iran’s Syrian consulate that killed seven officers, but not so heavy that it would invite a major Israeli retaliation.
That conclusion stems from the gradual build-up of the attack, signalled by the launch of an estimated 170 kamikaze drones, mostly the Shahed 136 that has been used extensively by Russia in Ukraine.
But Fabian Hinz, an expert on Iranian missiles, called the attack “absolutely not a symbolic strike” as it was the biggest ever combined attack of drones ballistic missiles in the Middle East.
“This was clearly an attempt to overwhelm Israel’s missile and air defences,” the IISS think tank analyst said. “If you look at the numbers used, this was a very substantial strike as you have to look very hard to find another where more than 100 ballistic missiles have been launched within a very short period of time.”
There was a major co-ordinated defence against the offensive, with US and British RAF jets used to shoot down drones and cruise missiles before they entered Israeli airspace.
Arrow ballistic defence
The one-way attack drone package sent Israel on to full alert, with air-raid sirens sounding from 2am on Sunday morning.
At about the same time, Israeli tracking systems, as well as a US Centcom command centre in Qatar, picked up a barrage of 20 cruise missiles launched from Iran.
These were most likely Paveh missiles that cruise at a relatively slow estimated 600kph, just above ground level, with a range of 1,650km.
But it was the ballistic missiles, possibly the new Khorramshahr 4 models, that have a range of up to 2,000km and a 1,500kg warhead, or the Emad rockets that formed the most challenging part of the attack.
With Israel 1,200km from Iran’s nearest border, travelling at their maximum speed of Mach 16 the missiles would have taken four minutes to reach their targets.
But Israel has the world’s most advanced air defence system, with its Iron Dome network able to take out short-range threats and its system of high altitude Arrow-2 and Arrow-3 interceptors focusing on advanced ballistic threats.
Iran slap-down
That Israel shot down 99 per cent of the approaching missiles, with minimal civilian casualties, can be seen as a “slap-down” for Iran’s military, said retired Col Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, a former British army nuclear and chemical weapons specialist.
“This is what happens when a second-tier force comes up against a first-tier one” he said. “Taking out 99 per cent of incoming missiles is extraordinary and the co-ordination with US, UK and other allies has probably left Iran stumped, although they might well have thought that this outcome was the likelihood.”
Will Israel retaliate?
With Iran stating that its "Operation True Promise" had concluded, almost before the last missile had landed, the biggest question now remains – what will Israel’s response be?
Tom Fletcher, a former foreign policy adviser to three British prime ministers, said the Middle East had entered a new game of “high-stakes poker”.
“The sheer scale of it is a chilling signal of Tehran’s capability and reach,” he told the BBC. “But also that both sides are clearly willing to play with fire.”
An attack on Iran itself could not be ruled out, said military expert Sam Cranny-Evans of the Rusi think tank.
While its western allies will be using all the leverage they can to prevent a significant escalation, Israeli politicians will already have been presented with detailed and well-rehearsed strike options on Iran’s military infrastructure.
“Israel will certainly retaliate, although they would have the choice not to,” said Mr Cranny-Evans. “There are two broad options. A restrained and focused series of strikes against key Iranian targets, including air defences, launchers and missile depots, or against proxies in Syria and Yemen.
“The second would be unrestrained strikes at Iran in general, starting with critical military infrastructure.”
Deterrence failure
After decades of proxy fighting, this is the first time Iran has directly attacked Israel, yet the offensive’s failure could have a significant impact on the Tehran regime’s thinking.
“Iran and Hezbollah’s missile arsenal were the major deterrence aimed at preventing Israel from launching a strike against Tehran’s nuclear programme,” said Mr Hinz. “Now that Israel has shown that it can survive even a massive attack, the question is whether Iran’s deterrence has been degraded.”
But he also warned it could lead to Iran expediting its nuclear weapon programme to react as a major deterrent.
Col de Bretton-Gordon said it was unclear what Tehran could do next, suggesting “if Iran had nuclear weapons it would be a different story”.
But he added that if Iran’s attack had killed 50 civilians “the Israelis would have gone absolutely bonkers and be bombing Tehran as we speak”.
500 People from Gaza enter France
115 Special programme for artists
25 Evacuation of injured and sick
What can victims do?
Always use only regulated platforms
Stop all transactions and communication on suspicion
Save all evidence (screenshots, chat logs, transaction IDs)
Report to local authorities
Warn others to prevent further harm
Courtesy: Crystal Intelligence
ONCE UPON A TIME IN GAZA
Starring: Nader Abd Alhay, Majd Eid, Ramzi Maqdisi
Directors: Tarzan and Arab Nasser
Rating: 4.5/5
DMZ facts
- The DMZ was created as a buffer after the 1950-53 Korean War.
- It runs 248 kilometers across the Korean Peninsula and is 4km wide.
- The zone is jointly overseen by the US-led United Nations Command and North Korea.
- It is littered with an estimated 2 million mines, tank traps, razor wire fences and guard posts.
- Donald Trump and Kim Jong-Un met at a building in Panmunjom, where an armistice was signed to stop the Korean War.
- Panmunjom is 52km north of the Korean capital Seoul and 147km south of Pyongyang, North Korea’s capital.
- Former US president Bill Clinton visited Panmunjom in 1993, while Ronald Reagan visited the DMZ in 1983, George W. Bush in 2002 and Barack Obama visited a nearby military camp in 2012.
- Mr Trump planned to visit in November 2017, but heavy fog that prevented his helicopter from landing.
if you go
The flights
Air Astana flies direct from Dubai to Almaty from Dh2,440 per person return, and to Astana (via Almaty) from Dh2,930 return, both including taxes.
The hotels
Rooms at the Ritz-Carlton Almaty cost from Dh1,944 per night including taxes; and in Astana the new Ritz-Carlton Astana (www.marriott) costs from Dh1,325; alternatively, the new St Regis Astana costs from Dh1,458 per night including taxes.
When to visit
March-May and September-November
Visas
Citizens of many countries, including the UAE do not need a visa to enter Kazakhstan for up to 30 days. Contact the nearest Kazakhstan embassy or consulate.
SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20SAMSUNG%20GALAXY%20S23%20ULTRA
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The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
More on Quran memorisation:
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
The Sand Castle
Director: Matty Brown
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Rating: 2.5/5
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
Teaching your child to save
Pre-school (three - five years)
You can’t yet talk about investing or borrowing, but introduce a “classic” money bank and start putting gifts and allowances away. When the child wants a specific toy, have them save for it and help them track their progress.
Early childhood (six - eight years)
Replace the money bank with three jars labelled ‘saving’, ‘spending’ and ‘sharing’. Have the child divide their allowance into the three jars each week and explain their choices in splitting their pocket money. A guide could be 25 per cent saving, 50 per cent spending, 25 per cent for charity and gift-giving.
Middle childhood (nine - 11 years)
Open a bank savings account and help your child establish a budget and set a savings goal. Introduce the notion of ‘paying yourself first’ by putting away savings as soon as your allowance is paid.
Young teens (12 - 14 years)
Change your child’s allowance from weekly to monthly and help them pinpoint long-range goals such as a trip, so they can start longer-term saving and find new ways to increase their saving.
Teenage (15 - 18 years)
Discuss mutual expectations about university costs and identify what they can help fund and set goals. Don’t pay for everything, so they can experience the pride of contributing.
Young adulthood (19 - 22 years)
Discuss post-graduation plans and future life goals, quantify expenses such as first apartment, work wardrobe, holidays and help them continue to save towards these goals.
* JP Morgan Private Bank
HAJJAN
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RESULT
Everton 2 Huddersfield Town 0
Everton: Sigurdsson (47'), Calvert-Lewin (73')
Man of the Match: Dominic Calvert-Lewin (Everton)
PREMIER LEAGUE FIXTURES
Saturday (UAE kick-off times)
Watford v Leicester City (3.30pm)
Brighton v Arsenal (6pm)
West Ham v Wolves (8.30pm)
Bournemouth v Crystal Palace (10.45pm)
Sunday
Newcastle United v Sheffield United (5pm)
Aston Villa v Chelsea (7.15pm)
Everton v Liverpool (10pm)
Monday
Manchester City v Burnley (11pm)
Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
UAE rugby in numbers
5 - Year sponsorship deal between Hesco and Jebel Ali Dragons
700 - Dubai Hurricanes had more than 700 playing members last season between their mini and youth, men's and women's teams
Dh600,000 - Dubai Exiles' budget for pitch and court hire next season, for their rugby, netball and cricket teams
Dh1.8m - Dubai Hurricanes' overall budget for next season
Dh2.8m - Dubai Exiles’ overall budget for next season
Essentials
The flights
Emirates, Etihad and Malaysia Airlines all fly direct from the UAE to Kuala Lumpur and on to Penang from about Dh2,300 return, including taxes.
Where to stay
In Kuala Lumpur, Element is a recently opened, futuristic hotel high up in a Norman Foster-designed skyscraper. Rooms cost from Dh400 per night, including taxes. Hotel Stripes, also in KL, is a great value design hotel, with an infinity rooftop pool. Rooms cost from Dh310, including taxes.
In Penang, Ren i Tang is a boutique b&b in what was once an ancient Chinese Medicine Hall in the centre of Little India. Rooms cost from Dh220, including taxes.
23 Love Lane in Penang is a luxury boutique heritage hotel in a converted mansion, with private tropical gardens. Rooms cost from Dh400, including taxes.
In Langkawi, Temple Tree is a unique architectural villa hotel consisting of antique houses from all across Malaysia. Rooms cost from Dh350, including taxes.
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
World record transfers
1. Kylian Mbappe - to Real Madrid in 2017/18 - €180 million (Dh770.4m - if a deal goes through)
2. Paul Pogba - to Manchester United in 2016/17 - €105m
3. Gareth Bale - to Real Madrid in 2013/14 - €101m
4. Cristiano Ronaldo - to Real Madrid in 2009/10 - €94m
5. Gonzalo Higuain - to Juventus in 2016/17 - €90m
6. Neymar - to Barcelona in 2013/14 - €88.2m
7. Romelu Lukaku - to Manchester United in 2017/18 - €84.7m
8. Luis Suarez - to Barcelona in 2014/15 - €81.72m
9. Angel di Maria - to Manchester United in 2014/15 - €75m
10. James Rodriguez - to Real Madrid in 2014/15 - €75m
COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
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The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
How much do leading UAE’s UK curriculum schools charge for Year 6?
- Nord Anglia International School (Dubai) – Dh85,032
- Kings School Al Barsha (Dubai) – Dh71,905
- Brighton College Abu Dhabi - Dh68,560
- Jumeirah English Speaking School (Dubai) – Dh59,728
- Gems Wellington International School – Dubai Branch – Dh58,488
- The British School Al Khubairat (Abu Dhabi) - Dh54,170
- Dubai English Speaking School – Dh51,269
*Annual tuition fees covering the 2024/2025 academic year
