Without exception the opinion polls point towards an election bloodbath for Britain’s ruling Conservative Party, with the loss of two thirds of its MPs a possibility.
The predictions are that Labour leader Keir Starmer will become potentially the most powerful British prime minister ever, in terms of seat numbers.
But is there a chance that the Tories could turn around their appalling polling position and limit Labour’s victory, or more improbably achieve a surprise election victory?
Downing Street tacticians believe the narrow route to success lies through the economy bouncing back so vigorously that voters will stick with the Tories rather than risk opting for Labour.
That road, according to political analysts interviewed by The National, is very narrow but also one that cannot be entirely discounted among the doom that currently besets Tories. The strategy would be an incumbent's inversion of Bill Clinton's 1992 US presidential victory that played on the struggling American economy with the campaign maxim: "It's the economy, stupid."
Revived economy
Rishi Sunak made five central promises on becoming Prime Minister in late 2022 that to have any chance of regaining office would all need to be fulfilled before the expected election this autumn.
Three relate to the nation’s finances – halving inflation, reducing government debt and growing the economy. The other two are to cut NHS waiting lists and stopping small boats carrying migrants across the English Channel.
Inflation has come down from a high of 11 per cent two years ago to, most recently, 3.4 per cent and Britain’s GDP growth is expected to be 0.8 per cent this year.
With the possibility of pay rises outstripping inflation later this year, alongside the benefit of a 2 per cent National Insurance cut and the significant boon of a likely Bank of England interest rate cut, by autumn people might feel they have more money in their pockets.
“The winner of the next election will be the political party that the public feels will ultimately make them more prosperous in the long term,” said Chris Hopkins of Savanta, a leading poll company.
“But for the Conservatives to recover I can't stress enough that there is no room for error. The economy has to recover and, more importantly, the public has to feel it.”
While Mr Sunak will argue the country has turned the corner, strong in voters’ memories will be the short-lived and disastrous Liz Truss premiership of unfunded tax cuts that triggered a markets' crisis.
That the “Tories crashed the economy” will undoubtedly become an overused Labour campaign slogan.
Labour scrutiny
While still cruising an average 20 points ahead in the polls, a lead that would give Labour a majority of more than a 100 MPs, as election day approaches their policies will be minutely examined.
This, argue analysts, could be another key area in which the Tories make gains.
“Labour is going to be scrutinised in a way that it hasn't been scrutinised properly since the last election,” said Dr Alan Mendoza of the right-leaning Henry Jackson Society think tank.
“Enough people might ask ‘can we trust Labour with their plans on tax and spend and do the figures add up?'”
Labour, argued Mr Hopkins, also has a history of collapsing in a campaign as it enters the spotlight. “That could lead to scepticism or ambivalence, or even turn into something more damaging. You can never count out a complete implosion from Labour.”
A Conservative win?
A Labour self-immolation, the pollster said, was one of the three key pillars required for any chance of a Tory success, along with the economy and getting the first deportation flights to Rwanda off the ground.
With legislation likely to pass in the coming weeks, Rwanda flights could start next month, albeit after overcoming challenges in the European Court of Human Rights.
The “symbolism of flights to Rwanda taking off could potentially move things”, suggested Mr Hopkins, because “it actually looks like the government has delivered on something”.
The latest Savanta poll shows the Labour lead has reduced by five points to 15 per cent, giving the Tories another vague hope.
But they would need to cut the lead to under 5 per cent to have any chance of a minority Labour government or parity to retain power.
Dr Mendoza said the electorate might not be keen on the Conservatives but could become so if Mr Sunak showed some delivery of policies that may change things.
Another key policy-delivery area, he suggested, was on the new definition of extremism that has been published following the mass protests over the Israel-Gaza war.
“They've started making good inroads on the extremism issue and if the definition comes into play, followed up by action on policing, people will see a visible change, comforted that law and order is being restored,” said Dr Mendoza.
Campaign gains
There are precedents that the Conservatives can draw on amid the polling gloom to turn around their position in the short six-week election campaign expected in autumn.
One is Theresa May’s 20-point lead when she called an election in 2017 that shrivelled to only a few points and a hung parliament after a lacklustre campaign.
Another is John Major’s success in 1992 when, despite terrible polls, the Conservatives managed to win with the electorate unconvinced by Labour’s policies.
Furthermore, both polling and electorates have become more volatile in the past decade, which is another cause for Tory hope.
“A lead can rapidly evaporate over the course of the election campaign, with the electorate perfectly prepared to make last-minute judgments that go against what it's been saying for months, or even years,” said Dr Mendoza.
“Given where they are in the opinion polls, it would be a really historic about-turn if the Conservatives were somehow to hang on to power,” he added. "However, history is there to be broken and there is a very narrow path to a Conservative victory.”
But it would be “real struggle” for the Conservatives to reverse the situation, suggested Mr Hopkins, even if election campaigns have an impact.
“It's really hard to reverse the feel that people have towards this government because they're fed up with them and even if they're not bothered about the opposition, Labour at least represents a change.”
Key fixtures from January 5-7
Watford v Bristol City
Liverpool v Everton
Brighton v Crystal Palace
Bournemouth v AFC Fylde or Wigan
Coventry v Stoke City
Nottingham Forest v Arsenal
Manchester United v Derby
Forest Green or Exeter v West Brom
Tottenham v AFC Wimbledon
Fleetwood or Hereford v Leicester City
Manchester City v Burnley
Shrewsbury v West Ham United
Wolves v Swansea City
Newcastle United v Luton Town
Fulham v Southampton
Norwich City v Chelsea
More coverage from the Future Forum
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Brief scoreline:
Toss: South Africa, elected to bowl first
England (311-8): Stokes 89, Morgan 57, Roy 54, Root 51; Ngidi 3-66
South Africa (207): De Kock 68, Van der Dussen 50; Archer 3-27, Stokes 2-12
MATCH INFO
Euro 2020 qualifier
Fixture: Liechtenstein v Italy, Tuesday, 10.45pm (UAE)
TV: Match is shown on BeIN Sports
SHALASH%20THE%20IRAQI
%3Cp%3EAuthor%3A%20Shalash%3Cbr%3ETranslator%3A%20Luke%20Leafgren%3Cbr%3EPages%3A%20352%3Cbr%3EPublisher%3A%20And%20Other%20Stories%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
RESULT
Kolkata Knight Riders 169-7 (20 ovs)
Rajasthan Royals 144-4 (20 ovs)
Kolkata win by 25 runs
Next match
Sunrisers Hyderabad v Kolkata Knight Riders, Friday, 5.30pm
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
What is a Ponzi scheme?
A fraudulent investment operation where the scammer provides fake reports and generates returns for old investors through money paid by new investors, rather than through ligitimate business activities.
Dhadak 2
Director: Shazia Iqbal
Starring: Siddhant Chaturvedi, Triptii Dimri
Rating: 1/5
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
The biog
DOB: 25/12/92
Marital status: Single
Education: Post-graduate diploma in UAE Diplomacy and External Affairs at the Emirates Diplomatic Academy in Abu Dhabi
Hobbies: I love fencing, I used to fence at the MK Fencing Academy but I want to start again. I also love reading and writing
Lifelong goal: My dream is to be a state minister
The%20specs%3A%202024%20Mercedes%20E200
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2.0-litre%20four-cyl%20turbo%20%2B%20mild%20hybrid%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E204hp%20at%205%2C800rpm%20%2B23hp%20hybrid%20boost%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E320Nm%20at%201%2C800rpm%20%2B205Nm%20hybrid%20boost%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E9-speed%20auto%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFuel%20consumption%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E7.3L%2F100km%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENovember%2FDecember%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh205%2C000%20(estimate)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Mobile phone packages comparison
EMILY%20IN%20PARIS%3A%20SEASON%203
%3Cp%3ECreated%20by%3A%20Darren%20Star%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EStarring%3A%20Lily%20Collins%2C%20Philippine%20Leroy-Beaulieu%2C%20Ashley%20Park%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERating%3A%202.75%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre V8 twin-turbocharged and three electric motors
Power: Combined output 920hp
Torque: 730Nm at 4,000-7,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch automatic
Fuel consumption: 11.2L/100km
On sale: Now, deliveries expected later in 2025
Price: expected to start at Dh1,432,000
Tips for job-seekers
- Do not submit your application through the Easy Apply button on LinkedIn. Employers receive between 600 and 800 replies for each job advert on the platform. If you are the right fit for a job, connect to a relevant person in the company on LinkedIn and send them a direct message.
- Make sure you are an exact fit for the job advertised. If you are an HR manager with five years’ experience in retail and the job requires a similar candidate with five years’ experience in consumer, you should apply. But if you have no experience in HR, do not apply for the job.
David Mackenzie, founder of recruitment agency Mackenzie Jones Middle East
Company profile
Date started: December 24, 2018
Founders: Omer Gurel, chief executive and co-founder and Edebali Sener, co-founder and chief technology officer
Based: Dubai Media City
Number of employees: 42 (34 in Dubai and a tech team of eight in Ankara, Turkey)
Sector: ConsumerTech and FinTech
Cashflow: Almost $1 million a year
Funding: Series A funding of $2.5m with Series B plans for May 2020
Look%20Both%20Ways
%3Cp%3EDirector%3A%20Wanuri%20Kahiu%3Cbr%3EStars%3A%20Lili%20Reinhart%2C%20Danny%20Ramirez%2C%20David%20Corenswet%2C%20Luke%20Wilson%2C%20Nia%20Long%3Cbr%3ERating%3A%203%2F5%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Expert input
If you had all the money in the world, what’s the one sneaker you would buy or create?
“There are a few shoes that have ‘grail’ status for me. But the one I have always wanted is the Nike x Patta x Parra Air Max 1 - Cherrywood. To get a pair in my size brand new is would cost me between Dh8,000 and Dh 10,000.” Jack Brett
“If I had all the money, I would approach Nike and ask them to do my own Air Force 1, that’s one of my dreams.” Yaseen Benchouche
“There’s nothing out there yet that I’d pay an insane amount for, but I’d love to create my own shoe with Tinker Hatfield and Jordan.” Joshua Cox
“I think I’d buy a defunct footwear brand; I’d like the challenge of reinterpreting a brand’s history and changing options.” Kris Balerite
“I’d stir up a creative collaboration with designers Martin Margiela of the mixed patchwork sneakers, and Yohji Yamamoto.” Hussain Moloobhoy
“If I had all the money in the world, I’d live somewhere where I’d never have to wear shoes again.” Raj Malhotra
Expo details
Expo 2020 Dubai will be the first World Expo to be held in the Middle East, Africa and South Asia
The world fair will run for six months from October 20, 2020 to April 10, 2021.
It is expected to attract 25 million visits
Some 70 per cent visitors are projected to come from outside the UAE, the largest proportion of international visitors in the 167-year history of World Expos.
More than 30,000 volunteers are required for Expo 2020
The site covers a total of 4.38 sqkm, including a 2 sqkm gated area
It is located adjacent to Al Maktoum International Airport in Dubai South
The specs
Engine: 2.3-litre, turbo four-cylinder
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Power: 300hp
Torque: 420Nm
Price: Dh189,900
On sale: now
The bio
Favourite book: Peter Rabbit. I used to read it to my three children and still read it myself. If I am feeling down it brings back good memories.
Best thing about your job: Getting to help people. My mum always told me never to pass up an opportunity to do a good deed.
Best part of life in the UAE: The weather. The constant sunshine is amazing and there is always something to do, you have so many options when it comes to how to spend your day.
Favourite holiday destination: Malaysia. I went there for my honeymoon and ended up volunteering to teach local children for a few hours each day. It is such a special place and I plan to retire there one day.
Going grey? A stylist's advice
If you’re going to go grey, a great style, well-cared for hair (in a sleek, classy style, like a bob), and a young spirit and attitude go a long way, says Maria Dowling, founder of the Maria Dowling Salon in Dubai.
It’s easier to go grey from a lighter colour, so you may want to do that first. And this is the time to try a shorter style, she advises. Then a stylist can introduce highlights, start lightening up the roots, and let it fade out. Once it’s entirely grey, a purple shampoo will prevent yellowing.
“Get professional help – there’s no other way to go around it,” she says. “And don’t just let it grow out because that looks really bad. Put effort into it: properly condition, straighten, get regular trims, make sure it’s glossy.”
The specs: 2018 Renault Koleos
Price, base: From Dh77,900
Engine: 2.5L, in-line four-cylinder
Transmission: Continuously variable transmission
Power: 170hp @ 6,000rpm
Torque: 233Nm @ 4,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 8.3L / 100km
Salah in numbers
€39 million: Liverpool agreed a fee, including add-ons, in the region of €39m (nearly Dh176m) to sign Salah from Roma last year. The exchange rate at the time meant that cost the Reds £34.3m - a bargain given his performances since.
13: The 25-year-old player was not a complete stranger to the Premier League when he arrived at Liverpool this summer. However, during his previous stint at Chelsea, he made just 13 Premier League appearances, seven of which were off the bench, and scored only twice.
57: It was in the 57th minute of his Liverpool bow when Salah opened his account for the Reds in the 3-3 draw with Watford back in August. The Egyptian prodded the ball over the line from close range after latching onto Roberto Firmino's attempted lob.
7: Salah's best scoring streak of the season occurred between an FA Cup tie against West Brom on January 27 and a Premier League win over Newcastle on March 3. He scored for seven games running in all competitions and struck twice against Tottenham.
3: This season Salah became the first player in Premier League history to win the player of the month award three times during a term. He was voted as the division's best player in November, February and March.
40: Salah joined Roger Hunt and Ian Rush as the only players in Liverpool's history to have scored 40 times in a single season when he headed home against Bournemouth at Anfield earlier this month.
30: The goal against Bournemouth ensured the Egyptian achieved another milestone in becoming the first African player to score 30 times across one Premier League campaign.
8: As well as his fine form in England, Salah has also scored eight times in the tournament phase of this season's Champions League. Only Real Madrid's Cristiano Ronaldo, with 15 to his credit, has found the net more often in the group stages and knockout rounds of Europe's premier club competition.
