Diabetes could cost Middle East and North Africa $1.5 trillion annually by 2050, report finds

Diabetes poses a significant health threat and economic challenge to the Middle East and North Africa region, which could cost $1.5 trillion per year by 2050 without urgent intervention, research has shown.

A study carried out by the University of Birmingham Dubai, in collaboration with the World Health Organisation, found that diabetes cost the region $639 billion in 2023 and this is expected to increase.

More than 74 million lived with diabetes in 2023 and the condition led to 830,000 deaths.

About 89 per cent of the total economic burden came from indirect costs such as loss of productivity.

The annual economic burden equates to 5.9 per cent of regional GDP, the study found. By 2050, diabetes cases will double to 150 million, with two million deaths per year at a cost of $1.5 trillion, if the current rate remains the same.

The study, published on November 14, provides the most comprehensive estimate to date of both direct health costs and indirect productivity losses associated with diabetes across 22 countries.

“This study sends a clear message to policymakers – diabetes is silently draining our economies,” said Khalifa Elmusharaf, associate professor and director of the public health programme at the University of Birmingham Dubai.

“The majority of this burden – nearly 90 per cent – comes from lost productivity, not hospital bills. If we continue to underinvest in prevention, the human and economic costs will become unmanageable.”

Researchers used a cost-of-illness methodology, incorporating data from the International Diabetes Federation, IHME, and the World Bank. The societal cost of premature deaths was measured using the value of a statistical life-year – an approach that captures losses beyond traditional productivity metrics.

Critical fight

Diabetes is a condition marked by high blood glucose, or sugar, and is classified into several types. With Type 2 diabetes, the body does not respond normally to insulin, a condition known as insulin resistance, with increased urination and thirst common symptoms.

About 90 per cent of diabetes patients have Type 2, and it is a growing problem around the world, due to changing lifestyles and diets.

The Middle East and North Africa has the highest incidence of diabetes worldwide, with 192,500 children and adolescents living with Type 1 diabetes. In India, about 244,500 children and adolescents are living with the disease.

The International Diabetes Federation estimates about 16.3 per cent of the UAE population has diabetes, compared with about 9.3 per cent worldwide.

Obesity is a major risk factor for the development of Type 2 diabetes. Conditions including cancer and heart disease are also more common in people with obesity.

The obesity rate in the UAE is one of the highest in the world, with about 30 per cent of women and 26 per cent of men in the Emirates living with the condition, figures from the Global Obesity Observer show.