The world risks drifting into conflicts over access to fresh water unless urgent steps are taken to manage supplies more sustainably, experts warned at an international conference in Abu Dhabi.
The Trends Research and Advisory’s Sustainable Water Security Conference, being held in the capital until Wednesday, is bringing together officials, academics and industry leaders to highlight how climate change, population growth and poor management could create a looming crisis.
The UN has repeatedly warned that global demand for water is projected to rise by 20 to 30 per cent by 2050, while droughts have already surged in frequency by nearly a third since 2000. More than two billion people worldwide still lack access to safe drinking water, and the World Bank estimates that scarcity could shave up to 6 per cent off GDP in some regions by the middle of the century.
Security risks
Sir Liam Fox, the former UK defence secretary and author of The Coming Storm: Why water will write the 21st century, said water is becoming a security issue that governments can no longer afford to ignore.
“It’s not an exaggeration, but it’s a possibility,” Mr Fox told The National, when asked about UN warnings that water scarcity could spark future conflicts.
“You can see where there are points of potential conflict around the world. The question is, will we put in place systems that will try to anticipate the issues and defuse them before they become a crisis?”
He pointed to recent tensions between India, Pakistan and China, which share vital river systems, as well as disputes over the Nile involving Ethiopia and downstream nations.
“We all know it’s going to be a source of potential tension. What are we going to do about it? Do we understand the size of the risk that we’re running, as well as the immediacy of the risk?” he said.
The Indus Waters Treaty, signed in 1960 between India and Pakistan, was long hailed as a rare success in cross-border co-operation. It survived political hostilities for decades, with both countries sharing data and forecasts.
That changed in April, when India suspended the pact after a militant attack, accusing Pakistan of backing terrorism. New Delhi later vowed never to reinstate the deal and said it would divert the water to its own territory. Pakistan called the move an “act of war” and pledged to fight it in international courts and at the UN.
Pakistan relies heavily on the Indus River, which provides about 90 per cent of its agricultural water and sustains the country’s food production and livelihoods. The dispute remains unresolved.
Ethiopia’s Grand Renaissance Dam is also at the centre of a row as it essentially gives Addis Ababa control over the flow of the Nile, a situation that has rung alarm bells in Egypt and Sudan. There is no indication Ethiopia wants to withhold water, but years of drought and rising demand could push tensions higher.
“Where there have been examples of countries who looked at it not as a sovereignty issue but as a practical issue – based on need, not ownership – those have tended to be more successful,” said Mr Fox.
Technology offers hope
Advances in desalination and renewable energy technologies are helping some nations improve their resilience.
“The cost of desalinated water has come down dramatically,” Mr Fox said. “A decade ago it was $9 per 1,000 litres, and that’s now down to around $4.”
He pointed to Morocco, which is using its solar and wind power together with its long Atlantic coast to boost desalination. He also praised the UAE for its projects at home and also in helping broker regional co-operation. Other experts at the conference also stressed the need to accelerate breakthroughs.
Ayesha Al Ateeqi, executive director of the Mohamed bin Zayed Water Initiative, said: “The water segment has been quite stagnant, and we don’t see the same transformations as in fields like artificial intelligence and energy.
“The question we ask is how can we accelerate breakthrough technologies and break economic barriers to make water resources more accessible? How can we ensure these solutions are deployed and scaled at the right pace?” She warned that water scarcity still does not receive the international attention it needs.
Prof Ahmed Ali Alraeesi, acting vice chancellor of the UAE University, said education and research also plays an important role in achieving water sustainability.
“At the UAE University, water resources is identified as a main research area,” he said. “We offer the Master of Science specialising in water sustainability and environment and another specialisation in water resources.”
UAE efforts
Last year, President Sheikh Mohamed launched an initiative under which $150 million will be invested in innovative solutions to tackle global water shortages, with $119 million in prizes up for grabs.
The XPrize Water Scarcity competition is a collaboration between the UAE and the American XPrize Foundation, the five-year global competition designed to provide widespread access to clean water by creating sustainable and affordable seawater desalination systems.
The Mohamed bin Zayed Water Initiative was also launched in 2024, led by Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs. The initiative is focused on ways to develop sustainable global access to water using breakthrough technologies and discussed priority projects.
