Dubai's population hits four million – here's what lies ahead for the city that keeps on growing

Dubai’s population has reached four million, representing a major milestone in the expansion of a city that has become a byword for growth.

The Dubai Statistics Centre maintains a population clock estimating the number of citizens and residents in the emirate, which is regularly updated. The emirate's population stood at 4,000,387 as of August 28.

The emirate’s breathless pace of growth shows no signs of slowing, with Dubai set to be home to 5.8 million people by 2040, according to projections.

How Dubai's population doubled in 15 years to reach four million

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A raft of schemes are under development, including the building of a second runway at Al Maktoum International Airport, with the first expansion phase set to be completed by 2032, by which time the airport’s annual capacity will be 150 million passengers.

A Dh10 billion ($2.72 billion) expansion of Dubai Exhibition Centre in the emirate's Expo City will create the largest indoor exhibition and conference centre in the region, so by 2033 Dubai will be able to host 600 events annually, twice as many as today.

These and other projects will play a part in the Dubai Economic Agenda D33, which aims to double the size of the economy between 2023 and 2033.

Linked to this is the aspiration to, in the words of the Dubai Department of Economy and Tourism, “firmly establish” the city as one of the top three in the world “to invest, live and work in”.

State of growth

It has been much discussed that until now Dubai has tended to follow a more expansive development model of the kind seen in many North American cities.

“Dubai has built itself out very much like Miami or Los Angeles – very large avenues, highways, those types of things, very little pedestrian infrastructure and therefore everyone has decided they’re going to drive and that cycle keeps reinforcing itself,” said Dr Alexander “AJ” Wray of Western University in Canada.

Rather than just expanding – even as the population climbs towards the 5.8 million envisaged in the Dubai 2040 Urban Master Plan – the nature of the city is also set to change, at least in some locations.

As part of its efforts to promote “soft mobility” – walking, cycling and e-scooters – Dubai is setting up, through The Super Block project, car-free zones in Al Karama, Al Fahidi, Abu Hail and Al Quoz Creative Zone.

And the Dubai Walk initiative, announced in December, will see the emirate create 3,300km of new walkways in total by 2040, including 124km of green walkways.

Dr Frederic Schneider, a senior fellow at the Middle East Council on Global Affairs and a former lecturer at the University of Birmingham Dubai, said Dubai may look to density neighbourhoods to limit physical expansion.

“It’s already 50+km from one end to another, so densification might be another area it would be necessary to look at, to not have this vast sprawl of a city. It will depend on infrastructure keeping up with the growth of the city,” he says.

Densification is linked to the 20-minute city concept, which is the idea that a person’s daily needs should be accessible within a 20-minute round-trip walk, cycle ride or public transport trip.

Denser populations are more likely to support the many amenities in a particular area needed if residents are to have essential daily services located within walking distance of where they live.

To get closer to the 20-minute city, the Dubai 2040 Urban Master Plan includes the aim of having 55 per cent of residents live within 800 metres of a mass transit station. This distance is important because the round-trip walk of 1.6km takes about 20 minutes.

Making the city more dense may create opportunities to further expand rail-based mass transit, which typically works better when it serves more heavily populated areas of cities.

Dubai Metro opened with the Red Line in 2009, was expanded to include the Green Line in 2011 and has since continued to grow. It will take another major step forward in 2029 when the Blue Line is inaugurated.

Upgrades to bus services too are being made by Dubai’s Roads and Transport Authority, which is additionally investing in road improvements to try to cut congestion.

Lessons from other parts of the world, such as Singapore, indicate that road charging is the most effective measure at cutting congestion by getting more people out of their cars and on to the public transport system.

Urban solutions

Dubai introduced its Salik road toll system in 2007 and this is continuing to evolve through dynamic pricing that charges more at peak times.

“The awareness is certainly there that urbanism needs to change,” Dr Schneider said. “A lot of Dubai is car-centric, multi-lane highways, is urban sprawl. That is the legacy of rapid development built on an American urban design model. Everybody knows and has known for a long time that’s not the future.

“ … Many people still sit an hour in their car each direction to get to and from work. We’ll have to see how the infrastructure projects that are planned will change it.

“It’s a huge undertaking. Just the Blue Line will not solve it. You have to have a huge integrated public transport system solution for that … [but] it will probably be going in the right direction once many of the projects – public transport and road infrastructure – are completed.”

With Dubai being one of a number of increasingly global cities that is competing for talent, ensuring that the experience of getting around continues to improve is seen as important.

Dr David Roberts, a reader in international security and Middle East studies at King’s College London, and the author of Security Politics in the Gulf Monarchies, said that the infrastructure in Dubai “has grown hugely in recent years”, but he indicates that continued development is important.

“All of these city states, if you get a reputation for huge ‘busyness’ that’s a problem,” he said. “If the city turns into gridlock – it will be two hours to cross Dubai – you could relocate to Abu Dhabi or Doha.”

A possible trend is that more people in Dubai may work from home. This could, suggests Dr Schneider, change the experience of living in the city for some.

“If you’re living in JBR [Jumeirah Beach Residence] and you’re working remotely most of the time, you’re going to spend most of your time in JBR and you’re not going to see much of the rest of the city. That’s also a possibility,” he says.

The one constant in Dubai has been change – and as the emirate surges through the four-million population mark, there is no sign that this will end.